Nate Silver Likes the Wildcats

Photo credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Photo credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Nate Silver is good at predicting things. He predicts elections. He predicts poker hands. He predicts sports results. He predicts… the first time one of his followers will get laid. [Kidding. That's a nerds joke. Settle down, nerds.] His new site, FiveThirtyEight, launched this week and it has had a heavy focus on the statistical oddity that is the NCAA Tournament. I linked to their bracket the other day. Today, Silver brings us a post dedicated to Villanova and their chances for a Final Four run:

But there’s disagreement over the Villanova Wildcats, the No. 2 seed in the East region. Our model gives them a 21 percent chance of advancing to Arlington, which is barely lower than Virginia (23 percent) and Michigan State (24 percent). In contrast, just 9 percent of participants in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge picked Villanova from the East, as compared to 46 percent for Michigan State and 23 percent for Virginia.

It’s sometimes smart to pick a team with slightly longer odds, provided that few participants in your office pool are doing so. The logic is as follows: If you pick Michigan State, and the team reaches the Final Four, that will be helpful — but chances are that about half your co-workers will have picked Sparty as well. You’ll probably need to choose at least one or two more Final Four teams correctly, or have a killer first and second round, to have much chance of finishing at the top of your pool.

YOU HEAR THAT? NATE SILVER IS TELLING YOU IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO PUT VILLANOVA IN YOUR FINAL FOUR. IF NATE SILVER LIKES THE CATS, I LIKE THE CATS. MEOW! – LICKS SELF – MEOW!

Now, about those nerds…

H/T to Kevin

9 Comments

  1. HOLY FUCK A PRO-VILLANOVA ARTICLE…? SHOCKING!!!!1111

  2. THIS FUCKING SITE HAS BEEN UNREADABLE AS OF LATE WITH ALL THIS NOVA SHIT…..

    I truly don’t hate Nova, but the constant posts of Nova alum crying “vitcim” and embarrassing twitter selfies make me cringe.

    Nova alum in March are just like that annoying cousin you see around the Holidays. They’re always bugging the shit out of you, talking about themselves entirely too much. It’s always a one sided conversation. They’ll bust out 4,000 photos of their dog, talk about how they’re up for a promotion, brag about how they’re planning a trip to europe, etc. You can’t get a word in edge wide, and after 4 IPA’s they brag about how much they know about beer.

    Dear Nova Alum – Don’t be that annoying cousin. Act like you’ve been to the tournament before.

  3. And you’re the biggest nerd of them all

  4. Nova fans who over-hype their team and Nova haters who whine and complain about them are equally douche-tastic.*

    All of you nerds should relax.

  5. NEEERRRRDDS!!!

    -Ogre

  6. Let’s go, Blue Hens

  7. yet adam silver gives villanova the third-best chance of coming out of the east behind michigan state and virginia…

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