After last week’s Patriots upset, we took a look at how the NFC East playoff projections looked, and were honestly surprised that the Eagles were favored to come out of the three-way tie atop the division by a near-consensus. The Giants have their chance tonight to beat the Dolphins and keep the three-way tie, but the Eagles are starting to pull even further away in the projections.

In the ESPN projection above, the Eagles are heavy favorites – almost too much, it makes me nervous – and they’re beginning to take over in FiveThirtyEight’s elo rankings (they had a 43% chance last week):

elo week 14

And the New York Times, who upped their simulations from 13,000 to 147,000, gives the Eagles a better chance as well.

nyt sims

The make or break game is really going to be the Week 16 matchup against the Redskins. The Eagles can lose to the Giants and still beat them in the tiebreaker, but if they lose to both the Redskins and Giants? It’s over. You can say what you want about Chip (racist, jerk, dictator, etc.), but in his three years as coach, he’s always kept it interesting.