Email from reader Patrick:

I saw your story about the Caps peaking too early and the Flyers getting hot. I looked at the numbers, but I wanted a respectable sample size. So, I figured that 21 games is roughly 1/4 of a season, so I ran the numbers of all 9 Eastern Conference teams in the running for the 8 playoff spots.

The 9 teams ranked in order of most points earned in their last 21 games:

Flyers – 31 points

Penguins – 30 points (second on the list despite winning 9 of 10)

Lightning – 29 points

Capitals – 28 points

Islanders – 27 points

Rangers – 27 points

Panthers – 23 points

Bruins – 22 points

Red Wings – 20 points

I’m not trying to get ahead of myself here, but as we’ve seen in every sport, it’s usually about how well you’re playing as the playoffs approach that dictates success. The Flyers are playing better than anyone in the conference over the last quarter of the season. You could argue that the Pens have been better because they have more wins (Flyers get points edge because all Pitt losses in their last 21 have been in regulation and the Flyers have salvaged 1 point in a few losses).

I agree with everything here. The Penguins are actually playing better right now. But the Flyers, as probably the second wild card team, are the most dangerous team in hockey. They’re playing as well as anyone in the Eastern Conference – except for the Penguins – and will likely play a team – the Capitals – coasting into the ‘offs. The Red Wings, meanwhile… yuck.

It’s important to note these numbers are as of yesterday.