I’ve seen at least 10,000 promos for tomorrow night’s Penn State/Michigan game featuring that terrible “Walk on Water” song by 30 Seconds to Mars. It’s almost as bad as the Hyundai “Sweet Caroline” commercial.

But don’t be deterred by ESPN’s horrendous song choice, because this game is gonna be a banger featuring college football’s most exciting player. It’s not John O’Korn, it’s future 49er Saquon Barkley, who can put a Ted Nugent-style stranglehold on the Heisman Trophy race with a winning performance in Happy Valley.

College Gameday comes to Penn State as the Lions try to avenge last season’s 49-10 road loss. Barkley only ran for 59 yards in Ann Arbor last year and will match up this time against a Wolverine defense that ranks top-10 in almost every single meaningful category. They’re allowing just 85.8 ground yards and 14.7 points per game. Penn State has pretty much clobbered five of six opponents this season, so something has to give on Saturday night.

Barkley’s main competition for the Heisman is a west coast running back, but let’s start by eliminating four other contenders:

Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma QB)

Heisman trophy winners don’t lose at home to Iowa State. Mayfield did go 24-33 for 306 yards and two touchdowns in that game, but he was disappointing in the second half. Still, he’s got a 17 to 1 touchdown/interception ratio and will keep himself in the conversation unless Oklahoma loses at Oklahoma State or at home the following week against TCU.

Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State QB)

He’ll be overshadowed by Mayfield the rest of the way. The early loss to TCU also took the Cowboys out of the national spotlight. They probably won’t win Bedlam, which might be a Heisman elimination game for Rudolph and Mayfield.

Plus, Big 12 defenses blow and I’m highly cautious in overvaluing quarterback play in that conference. That’s why I really can’t get behind Mayfield or Rudolph.

Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin RB)

A phenomenal freshman runner (and South Jersey native) who doesn’t catch the ball. He’ll be an early favorite for next year’s Heisman.

Lamar Jackson (Louisville QB)

An elite talent who has had to do it all himself this season. Someone give him some help.

Anyway, Barkley’s competition for the Heisman is this guy:

Bryce Love (Stanford RB)

Let’s start with his season stats. The Cardinal running back is averaging 10.3 (!) yards per carry and is on pace for a 2,000 yard and 18 touchdown season:

Love is just nasty on the ground. He’s a burner with next-level speed and the ability to blaze through holes. He ran for 263 and 301 yards in back-to-back games. Those are video game numbers.

Most of Love’s game film is him showing patience, following great blocks, and then bursting for big gains. At 5’10”, 196, he’s not going to break a ton of tackles, but you’ll see him easily shrug off arm tackles with his downhill speed. He won’t jump cut like an elite NFL runner, but he’s quick enough laterally to take the ball outside for big gains.

Love’s offensive line is one of the best in the country. There’s a reason Stanford has sent 10 O-linemen and tight ends to the NFL in the past five drafts.

Stanford is always a disciplined and focused pro-style team in a conference that features a smattering of spread offenses. I’m not surprised when I see clips like this:

Love’s main weakness is that he’s basically nonexistent in the passing game. He has four catches for 19 yards this season. He also doesn’t feature in the return game, which is Cameron Scarlett’s territory. His skill-set is narrow in that regard, but he absolutely excels at the one thing he’s asked to do.

I don’t know what his NFL draft stock looks like, but Love would be a 100% perfect fit as a scat back in the New England Patriots’ system.

Saquon Barkley

His pure numbers are not as flashy as Love’s:

Barkley doesn’t have nearly as many carries as his Stanford counterpart for two reasons:

  1. PSU has only played six games (no duh)
  2. The Lions have killed every opponent except for one. Barkley ran it 28 times in the comeback win against Iowa.

I don’t know how many times he carries it tomorrow night. Michigan’s run defense is excellent, which means he might have to do more damage in the passing game, like he did in last year’s game (5 grabs for 77 yards).

Let’s start there.

Barkley has incredible hands and has put up some receiver-like numbers as a running back. His route-running is excellent. He went for 94 yards in the Iowa win and ripped off gains of 46 and 36 against Pitt and Indiana. He also returns kicks and took one 98 yards to the house against Indiana. Compared with Love, he’s obviously the more versatile player when it comes to all-purpose yardage, which I think carries more value overall, especially when viewing him as an NFL prospect. For that reason alone, his overall touches eclipse Love’s, even with one fewer game played.

Specifically, Barkley is so good at cutting, stopping, and restarting. His side-to-side movement and balance are second to none and he compiles more highlight-reel clips than anyone else. Those things go a long way in the optics department for casual fans who don’t watch a ton of college football (i.e. most NFL fans on the eastern seaboard). He’s got 30 pounds on Love, so you’d think Barkley might not be as shifty, but I don’t think that’s the case at all.

Barkley’s offensive line is not as good as Love’s. He’s not going to get gaping holes to run through. While that limits his yardage and his overall statistical numbers, you do get to see more of those Barry Sanders-esque evasive movements.

I also don’t know if Barkley has “elite” speed, but it’s not like he’s lacking in that department.

 

Two more things to consider

It’s probably going to come down to these two guys for the Heisman race if they continue to play at their current levels.

These intangibles might come into play:

Strength of schedule: I think they’re almost identical. Penn State played cupcakes early but won at Iowa. They host Michigan before going to Ohio State and Michigan State in consecutive weeks. If the Lions run that gauntlet unscathed, Barkley wins the trophy. He’d just be padding his stats at home against Rutgers and Nebraska before the season finale at Maryland. I don’t think it even matters what happens in the Big 10 title game if they get there. For what it’s worth, Barkley had 100 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns against Wisconsin last year.

Stanford doesn’t have it easy though. They had a nice win at #20 Utah but lost at USC and San Diego State (they’re good this year). Love still has to run it against three top-15 teams in Washington, Washington State, and Notre Dame. Stanford might be 7-5 or 8-4 at the end of the year, which might make it tough to keep Love in the conversation. Penn State probably goes 11-1 or 10-2 because I just don’t see how they can get it done at OSU and MSU in back-to-back weeks. I still think Barkley can win the trophy even if the Lions hit a bump or two in the road. Love has less wiggle room in this area.

East coast bias: Fewer people see Pac-12 games because they’re in bed or out doing something else on Saturday night. Stanford’s upcoming national TV game against Washington doesn’t even start until 10:30 eastern. Barkley has more eyeballs on him because he gets those east coast noon and primetime games. It’s a really underrated topic. Think about Chip Kelly drafting all of those Oregon players for the Eagles. How many of those guys were you really familiar with?

I think Barkley is the better player overall, but don’t sleep on Love, who puts up ridiculous numbers behind a greatoffensive line. If the Lions slip up in these next two weeks, knee-jerk America might start to sour on Saquon as we get closer to the December 10th Heisman ceremony.

Both players are incredible talents, but it should be clear to anyone who watches the film that Barkley is the superior player.