If you would’ve told me three weeks ago that the Eagles would find themselves in a must-win game heading into Week 6, I would have said you were crazy. The Giants? Maybe. But not the Eagles. Yet that’s exactly the situation facing both teams when they take the field at MetLife Stadium tonight. It’s been ugly for both teams lately. The 2-3 Eagles are coming off a sloppy and disappointing 23-21 loss to Minnesota, while the Giants try to bounce back after a walkoff 63-yard field goal sank them in Carolina a week ago.

Can the Eagles right the ship? Can the Giants save their season? Let’s find out by taking a look at what the betting trends and data reveal.

 

Eagles (-3) at Giants, Over/Under 44

It’s hard to imagine the Giants bouncing back and competing after such a crushing defeat last week, but those expecting New York to fold tonight should look to last year’s game with the Eagles in which they lost on a 61-yard field goal as a cautionary tale. The Giants covered the following week as a 2.5-point underdog, as they are tonight at several books, in a 25-23 loss at Tampa Bay. I expect a similar fight this time around.

The Eagles and Giants come in both looking to avoid their third-straight loss. The Eagles haven’t been in this spot since 2016 and were 2-1 ATS in such games that season. Manning, meanwhile has had plenty of experience with losing back-to-back games in his career and is 11-12-1 in such games.

While on the surface, a matchup with the cellar-dwelling Giants would seem to be a welcomed opponent given the Eagles have won 16 of the last 20 matchups between the two teams, including the past three contests. That advantage, however, isn’t as pronounced when measured against the spread lately. Pederson is 3-1 straight-up against the Giants, but only 1-3 ATS as the Eagles failed to cover either of their wins a season ago.

 

Other game trends to know

Backers of the Eagles can take some solace in the Eagles’ 3-0 record straight-up and ATS under Doug Pederson when the Eagles play on Thursday night, including a 24-19 win over the Giants in December of 2016. Across the league, the home team is 13-8-1 ATS on Thursdays dating back to the start of last season, and 4-1 ATS this season. Favorites, meanwhile, are 12-9-1 ATS during the same time frame and are 33-23-2 since the start of the 2015 season. Of all the trends I found during my research, this is perhaps the most convincing.

Overall, Pederson is 6-4 ATS as a head coach in primetime games. Because Pat Shurmur is a rookie head coach and thus have too small of a sample size to draw from, I will use Eli Manning as New York’s primary data point. Manning enters this game 27-30-1 ATS in primetime games and is only 1-4 in such games since the start of the 2017 season.

In terms of how the over/under may impact the game, there’s no discernible advantage based on more recent samples. The total of this one is currently 44 at most sportsbooks. In games with a closing total between 43 and 46 points, Pederson is 6-6 ATS while Manning is 5-3. Since 2008, the Eagles are 42-32 ATS when the total is 45 or less.

Speaking of the total, I used a telling trend last week to make my pick that revealed the under hit in 14 of 20 games at Lincoln Financial Field under Pederson. The under came through once again to make it 15 of 21 games. The road split is just as dramatic when it comes to the total, but in the opposite direction. Eagles games have hit the over in 14 of 18 games on the road under Pederson, including both games played at MetLife Stadium. In general terms of the total and Thursday night games, it’s worth noting the over is 13-9 overall and 7-3 in division games since the start of the 2017 season.

As of Wednesday night, the Eagles are a 3-point favorite at most books after dropping down to 2.5 briefly on Tuesday and early Wednesday. At the time of this post, 59% of spread bets back the Eagles, with 61% of the money on Philadelphia. If you like to fade the public, the Giants are the play here, but there’s nothing about the line movement that sounds the alarm one way or the other. The total sits at 44 at most books, but a few are offering 43.5 at the moment.

 

Prediction

As you can see, the trends don’t overwhelmingly favor one play, but there’s enough here to form a solid lean. I think the Eagles are going to win, but it’s really hard to back them with much conviction right now. Despite shoddy secondary play, an inconsistent pass rush, and a mistake-prone offense, the Eagles remain the more talented team and are in desperate need of a win. They shouldn’t be lacking motivation in this one. I’ll abstain on recommending a side and take the over. I like the success of the over recently on Thursday night division games, and Pederson’s incredible track record with passing the total on the road. I also like this particular matchup for points, despite both teams ranking in the bottom-third of the league in total scoring. The Eagles offense has performed better than the 20.6 points per game it has generated through five weeks. Meanwhile, the Giants surpassed the 30-point mark last week for the first time in 37 contests dating back to their final game of the 2015 season. Also keep in mind that Eli Manning had some success in both games against the Eagles a year ago, with the Giants putting up 53 combined points in their two matchups.

Eagles 27, Giants 23

 

Value

With all of that in mind, and guidance on the over, here’s where you can find value on both the total and the Eagles on NJ sports betting apps.

 

Total

BetStars has the over-under at 43, which is the best number if you plan to take the over

FanDuel: 43.5

DraftKings–SugarHouse–888 (all backed by Kambi): 44

William Hill: 44.5

BetStars also offers Odds Boost for select prop bets. Best way to maximize your value here? Sign up for a free trial at Monster Roster and use their prop bet guidance to see if any of those match with the offered Odds Boosts from BetStars, which offers an Android app and, on iOS, a sportsbook inside their PokerStars app. Monster Roster is a local company partly owned by the Sixers and they work out of their practice facility. It’s not a cheap service, but well worth the investment if you’re serious about betting.

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Spread

FanDuel has the best Eagles spread line at -1 and +100.

William Hill: -2 -110.

DraftKings–SugarHouse–888: -2.5 -107

BetStars: -3 +100

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Winner

FanDuel has the best money on the Eagles at -116

William Hill: -125

DraftKings–SugarHouse–888: -125

BetStars: -143

FanDuel is also offering a “close loss” guarantee for Week 6, meaning the refund any moneyline bet up to $50 if your team loses by six points or less. So that makes this a no-brainer play if you want to take the Eagles.

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