As long as the No. 2 seed Wolverines aren’t playing Michigan State, they remain one of these most dangerous teams in the nation, and that would appear to be bad news for No. 3 seed Texas Tech in this Sweet 16 showdown, which is open at NJ sports betting sites.

After throttling both No. 15 Montana and No. 10 Florida, allowing neither team to reach 35% percent shooting from the floor, Michigan is now 30-3 against teams that don’t reside in East Lansing. Just how good has Michigan been? They have not lost to an opponent other than the Spartans since Feb. 12. Averaging only 70.3 points per game this season, Michigan certainly doesn’t possess a potent offense, but is terrific on the defensive glass and uses the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense to wear down opponents, holding them to only 58.2 points per game. Specifically, the Wolverines’ perimeter defense has been simply outstanding. Opposing teams are shooting only 29% from three-point range, the fifth-worst opponent long-range shooting percentage in the nation, and it’s a big reason why the Wolverines are No. 2 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating.

The No. 1 team, you ask? Texas Tech.

Stats

The Red Raiders shared the Big 12 regular season title with Kansas State, ripping off a nine-game win-streak before falling to West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament. That setback didn’t halt the Red Raiders’ late-season momentum as they are one win away from their second straight Elite Eight appearance. Much like Michigan, Texas Tech relies on its defense to set the tone, an attack that was in full display during its 78-58 demolition of No. 6 seed Buffalo last Sunday. The Red Raiders have the nation’s No. 3 scoring defense, holding teams to 59.2 points per game this season and a 36.8% field goal percentage, the second-lowest opponent shooting percentage in the country.

Odds

Michigan is -2 and the over-under is 125 at PointsBet– get a $50 free bet with no deposit and up to $1,000 in risk-free bets when you use code BROADLINES.

Trends

This game features an extremely short spread (currently sitting between 1-2 points in favor of Michigan), so straight up and against the spread trends are both worth strong consideration when evaluating this game.

There are some things to really like about the Wolverines here. They are a perfect 13-0 straight up (but only 6-7 ATS) in non-conference games and 7-2 SU (but only 3-6 ATS) with at least four days of rest. While those cover rates aren’t impressive, they’ve found ways to win in these spots all season, and given the short spread, that’s what truly matters. Michigan has also been a quality bet in road or neutral court games going 12-6 ATS, although Texas Tech is a solid 5-2 SU in neutral site games.

In terms of historical trends, the outlook appears to be in Michigan’s favor.  Despite the seemingly inconsequential seeding difference in a No.2/No.3 match up, No. 3 seeds are only 7-11 SU against No. 2 seeds in Sweet 16 games dating back to 2005 and 6-9 SU as an underdog. Meanwhile, when the higher-seeded team is also favored in Sweet 16 games, such teams are 72-27 SU. That type of success is hard to ignore, but it’s not all bad news for Texas Tech.

The short spread in this game is hard to ignore and yields some favorable historical data supporting a Red Raiders win. Teams favored by two points or less are only 11-12 SU in Sweet 16 games. That exact spread matters, too, because the record jumps to 24-15 SU when favored by three points or less. Still, the No. 2/No. 3 matchup when dissected with this particular spread appears favorable to Michigan’s chances. No. 2 seeds are 10-8 ATS against No. 3 seeds since 2005 and 3-1 ATS since the 2015 NCAA Tournament

Prediction

This is a brutal game and it’s hard to find discernible differences in the performance of these two teams. Even their two conferences play each other almost straight up during the NCAA Tournament. The Big Ten has a slight 13-12 head-to-head advantage dating back nearly 15 years. I was all set to pick Texas Tech because the Red Raiders have a slight advantage in terms of scoring, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and free throw percentage. In a game where points are expected to be at a premium, it’s hard to ignore these slight advantages, but when I wrote it out, I didn’t feel good about the pick. The historical trends back Michigan in this game and I think the Wolverines find a way.

 

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