When Tennessee and Purdue take the floor on Thursday night, it will be the tale of two teams coming off of very different second round performances. Purdue overwhelmed defending champ Villanova in a 87-61 beatdown, while Tennessee survived a 25-point blown lead, barely escaping Iowa in overtime. You can bet on the game with NJ online sports betting.

Certainly, the Volunteers were happy to dodge one of the biggest NCAA Tournament collapses of all-time, but if Purdue’s Carsen Edwards comes anywhere close to replicating the electric 42-point performance he had against Villanova, Tennessee is simply prolonging the inevitable. The junior guard drained nine three-pointers in that game and is the primary reason the Boilermakers believe they’ll finally make it out of the Sweet 16 for the first time in five tries under head coach Matt Painter.

This game is a study in contrasts showcasing Tennessee’s interior presence against Purdue’s perimeter scoring. As the Boilermakers showed against Villanova, they like to launch the three. After connecting on 16 of 30 three-point attempts last Saturday, Purdue is now 20th in the nation in three-point attempts and 17th in three’s made. They’ll likely look to employ the same strategy Thursday night given Tennessee has held opponents to the nation’s ninth-worst two-point shooting percentage at 43.8%, but has been only average in defending against the three at 34.3%. Unlike Purdue, the Vols’ offensive strength comes from their efficiency near the rim. Tennessee is shooting 49.6% from the floor this season, mostly thanks to its high volume of attempts and makes from inside the arc. They are fourth in two-point shots attempted and third in makes.

Odds

Tennessee is -2 and the over under is 146.6 at DraftKings Sportsbook– get your first bet matched up to $500 and insurance on Sweet 16 games.

Trends

This game features an extremely short spread (currently sitting between 1-2 points in favor of Tennessee), so straight up and against the spread trends are both worth strong consideration when evaluating this game.

Let’s start with the pertinent historical trends found in Sweet 16 games. No. 2 seeds are 11-7 SU against No. 3 seeds since 2005 in Sweet 16 games and 9-6 SU as a favorite. Meanwhile, higher-seeds are 79-33 SU in Sweet 16 games and 72-27 SU when the higher seed is also favored. Moreover, the No. 2/No. 3 matchup when dissected with this particular point spread appears favorable to Tennessee. No. 2 seeds are 10-8 ATS against No. 3 seeds over the last 14 NCAA Tournaments and 3-1 ATS since the 2015 NCAA Tournament. And there’s this: No. 3 seeds that are underdogs of three points or less are 4-7 ATS against No. 2 seeds since 2005 in Sweet 16 games.

Meanwhile, there’s some other strong information at play here that favors the Volunteers. Tennessee is 5-1 ATS this season when playing teams allowing less than 67 points per game (Purdue allows 66.1 points per game), while Purdue is only 3-9 ATS against teams allowing between 67 and 72 points per game (Tennessee allows 68.9 points per game). Tennessee is also 14-1 SU in non-conference games and 28-3 SU as a favorite this season.

As for information favoring a Purdue win and cover, consider that the Boilermakers are on an 8-3-1 ATS run run against the number over their last 12 games against SEC opponents and 15-8 ATS with at least four days of rest this season. Additionally, it’s hard to look past the short point spread in this matchup. Teams favored by just two points or less are only 11-12 SU in Sweet 16 games since 2005. That point matters, too, because the overall record jumps to 24-15 when favored by three points or less. Purdue is only 2-2 ATS in a limited sample of games as an underdog this season, but is 1-0 ATS in its lone game as an underdog of three points or less, while Tennessee has struggled as a short favorite going 0-1 ATS when favored by three or less and 3-4 ATS when favored by six points or less.

Prediction

I wondered if there was a historical precedent for Purdue’s 26-point win over Villanova in the previous round. Do such wins typically create sustainable momentum? The answer is somewhat unclear. Sweet 16 teams that won their previous game by 26+ points are 20-13 SU, but are only 6-9 SU in the same spot as an underdog. The historical dominance of the higher seed points toward a Tennessee win, but their struggles in games with short spreads has me leaning with Purdue. Give me Carsen Edwards and the Boilermakers to knock down just enough three-pointers over an average Tennessee perimeter defense to escape with a win and get head coach Matt Painter to his first Elite Eight.