Auburn at Virginia Odds: Line, Prediction, Betting Analysis

You can bet on the Auburn-Virginia Final Four matchup at New Jersey sports betting sites. Let’s take a look at the lines, betting trends, and predictions.

Odds

Where to bet

You have two best bets for laying action on the Final Four in New Jersey:

DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings is offering a ton of action on the Final Four games, including a few odds boosts. Most notably, they are offering an additional $50 free bet for the Final Four. Get up to $550 in first bet matches— this is better than their regular offer of $500 first bet match.

PointsBet

PointsBet is easily our favorite new sportsbook in New Jersey, and for good reason– they are offering a $50 free bet with no deposit and two risk-free bets up to $1,000 when you use code BROADLINES. And they are still running their make it rain promo, which will pay you $3 for every three-pointer your teams (minimum $100 bet).

Stats

The Cavaliers have quieted their critics with a deep tournament run and are now two wins away from a National Championship while wiping away the embarrassment of last season’s historic first round exit. Virginia is known for its defense, and with good reason, as Tony Bennett’s team has the best scoring defense in the nation, holding opponents to only 55.4 points per game. That number is not a surprise considering opposing teams are shooting only 38.4% from the floor against Virginia and only 28.7% from beyond the arc. This will be a point of emphasis for the Cavaliers as they try to slow down an Auburn team that’s second in the nation in total three-point attempts and shoots 37.9% from deep.

It’s not just about defense for the Cavaliers, though, as their 39.4% shooting percentage from three has helped stabilize an offense that, in recent seasons, often has looked downright ugly. Kyle Guy (15.2 ppg), De’Andre Hunter (14.9 ppg), and Ty Jerome (13.3) provide Bennett with three viable scoring options, and in order to keep pace with an Auburn squad that averages over 80.2 points per game, each member of that trio will need to show up on Saturday night.

For the Tigers, it’s all about guards Jared Harper and Bryce Brown. The pair have combined to form what is arguably the nation’s top backcourt. The duo averages a combined 31.4 points and 7.7 assists per game, and will need to lead the way with third-leading scorer Chuma Okeke out for the season following ACL surgery.

Trends

Let’s first look at how each of these teams have performed against the number this season. Virginia is one of the nation’s top ATS teams. The Cavaliers are 25-11 ATS overall and 15-5 ATS on the road or on a neutral court. Moreover, Virginia has shown well as a favorite, going 23-11 ATS as a favorite. UVA is 7-1 ATS when favored between 3.5 and 7.5 points, as it is in this contest, and 13-6 ATS against teams that win more than 65% of its games. In other words, they’re battled test and have had success against the number in a loaded ACC.

Auburn, meanwhile, is 22-15-1 overall ATS and 5-2 ATS as an underdog or in pick’em contests. They’re also a perfect 3-0 straight up when a dog of between 3.5 and 7.5 points, thus meaning that both teams have excelled with similar odds this season.

As for the historical trends, some things to consider: No. 1 seeds are 33-23 SU and 30-26 ATS during Final Four matchups dating back to the early 90s. Meanwhile, No. 5 seeds are 3-3 SU and ATS in the Final Four. Teams favored 5.5 points or less are 13-7-1 ATS since 2005 and 7-4 ATS when favored between exactly 3 and 5.5 points. Moreover, higher seeded teams are 17-3 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in Final Four games during that same time frame and teams seeded at least four spots higher than their opponent in this round are 5-3-1 ATS. What up, Virginia?

Prediction

It was chalk early, followed by mid-round chaos, but I expect a return to chalk in this matchup. I think Virginia stifles a spirited Auburn effort on its way to clinching a spot in the title game on Monday night. I’ll take the Cavaliers to win and cover.