Texas Tech at Virginia: National Championship Betting Guide

You can bet on the Texas Tech-Virginia at New Jersey sports betting sites. Let’s take a look at the lines, betting trends, and predictions.

Where to bet

You have two best bets for laying action on the National Championship Game in New Jersey:

DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings is offering a ton of action on the title game, including a few odds boosts. Most notably, they are offering an additional $50 free bet for the Final Four. Get up to $550 in first bet matches— this is better than their regular offer of $500 first bet match.

PointsBet

PointsBet is easily our favorite new sportsbook in New Jersey, and for good reason–they are offering a $50 free bet with no deposit and two risk-free bets up to $1,000 when you use code BROADLINES. Even better– all spreadline and totals bets are +100 for the National Championship. And they are still running their Make it Rain promo, which will pay you $3 for every three-pointer your team hits (minimum $100 bet).

Stats

If you like knock-down, drag-out fights, then tonight’s NCAA Tournament title game is probably going to be right up your alley. The Red Raiders and Cavaliers have boasted two of the nation’s top defensive units all season long and both teams rode their physical and relentless defenses to wins on Saturday night.

For Virginia, the Cavaliers have quieted their critics with a deep tournament run and are just one win away from a National Championship while fully erasing the embarrassment of last season’s historic first round exit to #16 seed UMBC.

The hype is real when it comes to UVA’s defense. Tony Bennett’s team has the top scoring defense in the nation, holding opponents to only 55.5 points per game. That number is not a surprise considering opposing teams are shooting only 38.4% from the floor against and only 28.7% from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is also one of the country’s most efficient defenses and held opponents to the nation’s second-lowest field percentage (36.9%), second-lowest two-point percentage (41.8%), and third-lowest points per game total (58.8). That elite defense showed up in a big way during Texas Tech’s upset win over Michigan State during the Final Four, holding the Spartans to 31.9% shooting and only 51 points.

While both defenses are grabbing the headlines, and with good reason, someone on the floor is going to need to put the ball in the net if their team is going to win, so let’s take a look at who might do that. Emphasis on might.

For the Cavaliers, their 39.3% shooting percentage from three has helped stabilize an offense that, in recent seasons, has often looked downright ugly. Saturday’s semifinal hero Kyle Guy (15.2 ppg), De’Andre Hunter (14.9 ppg), and Ty Jerome (13.3) give UVA three viable scoring options. Meanwhile, guard Jarrett Culver (18.6 ppg) was the man for Texas Tech leading up to the Final Four, but his team was able to survive Michigan State despite only 10 points from the Big 12 Player of the Year. Senior guard Matt Mooney was key in helping the Red Raiders build a double-digit lead midway through the second half. There’s no doubt they wouldn’t be playing tonight without his clutch 22-point effort on 8 of 16 shooting.

Trends

Let’s first take a look at how each of these teams have performed against the number this season. Virginia is one of the nation’s top ATS teams. The Cavaliers are 25-12 ATS overall and 15-6 ATS on the road or on a neutral court. Moreover, Virginia has shown well as a favorite, going 23-12 ATS in this role. UVA is 13-7 ATS against teams that win more than 65% of its games.

So, in other words, they’re both plenty battled tested and successful against elite competition. It’s worth noting, however, Virginia failed to cover in their win over Auburn and is only 2-3 ATS in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

On the other side, the Red Raiders have covered 13 of their last 15 games and have been a perfect 5-0 ATS throughout this tournament. I mentioned Virginia’s success against winning teams this season, but Texas Tech has been an even better bet against teams with a higher than .650 winning-percentage, going 15-6-1 ATS. Situationally, Texas Tech has also performed well this season in games with similar spreads, going 4-1 ATS when an underdog of three points or less. There’s also another important and overwhelming ATS trend to note with Texas Tech: It is 9-0 in second half covers during tournament games under Chris Beard and 13-3 ATS in the second half over its last 16 games overall. Simply put, if you’re looking to reassess your wagers or get involved at the half, this is a need-to-know stat.

Let’s now break down some historical trends that are worth consideration. Since 2005, #1 seeds are 13-4 straight up and 10-7 ATS against #3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Also of note, #1 seeds playing a lower seed in title games are 5-1 SU. Higher seeds are also 7-2 SU in title games in that same time frame.

Since 1991, title game favorites are 24-10 SU, but only 15-19 ATS. Still, favorites since 2005 are 9-5 ATS, but only 3-3 ATS when favored by two points or less.

In terms of the total, scoring is expected to be at a premium tonight with the total currently set between 117-118. This is second-lowest NCAA Championship Game over/under since the 128 posted total in the 2010 Duke-Butler final. Does this extremely low number equate to a sure-fire “under” play? The public has been hitting it, and hitting it hard, probably relying on the old “the line tells me all I need to know” fallacy. A closer look, however, reveals that hasn’t necessarily been the case this season or over a longer sample. The under is 5-4 when a game total is 118 or less this season. Since 2005, plays on the under in NCAA Tournament games with a total of 118 or less are 6-5-1. Therefore, crazy low lines, like we see here, aren’t always indicative of a successful under play.

Prediction

The narrative and “feel” guy in me says take Virginia to fully vanquish their demons, but the one that relies on historical, situational, and team performance trends says that Texas Tech is the play for all of the reasons mentioned above. Hmm. I’ll say it like this: I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Texas Tech grinds its way to one more win, but, ultimately, I think championship games can be swung by intangibles and feel, which I think benefits UVA, so I’ll take the Cavaliers to emerge with their first national title. 

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