Vincent Kompany’s late strike against Leicester City cost me a lucrative draw but also put Manchester City on the brink of a repeat Premier League title. Image via Twitter.

“When did you start following Manchester City, when they won the title?” I get that a lot. But the truth is I started following Manchester City when my brother James moved to England, a move that has lasted over a decade now. I only started watching the Premier League so that I would have something to talk about with him that was part of his life there. Little did I know I’d get hooked.

Week 38 of the Premier League season is one of the great traditions in all of sport. Whereas the prior 37 weeks’ matches are played on a fairly catch-as-catch-can schedule, Week 38 in the Premier League is always the same. All 20 teams play the 10 scheduled matches at 3:00 p.m. Sunday so as not to give any team an unfair advantage in terms of knowing what another team’s result was before their match kicks off. American sports should adopt this, but most probably won’t.

Anyway, seeing the awful hole I am in, I have somewhat desperately decided on two tactics for the last week of the season: 1. We’re picking all ten of these matches. 2. James is helping out. I’ll lead with his picks in “quotes,” then add my opinion of his assessment and, where appropriate, my own pick. Let’s make a ton of money on the last weekend of the season after the jump.

BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION v. MANCHESTER CITY

“City has made things interesting in the past, but I think there is a limit to that against a very poor Brighton side.  It’s unfortunate that this is one of the two games being televised in the UK, because I think it’s going to suck.  4-1 City at 14/1.” We agree that this match will be anti-climactic and that City should have things in hand by the half. But my wagers are more conservative. Take City to win to nil at 5/6.

BURNLEY v. ARSENAL

“I want no piece of this match, but let’s go over 11.5 corners at 11/5.” This is the part where I say that I think my brother has been in England too long. Betting over/under on corner kicks is just this side of cockroach racing. Burnley has literally nothing to play for. Arsenal almost certainly cannot take the fourth Champions League place from Tottenham Hotspur, but the Gunners will want a win to build from going into their Europa League final against Chelsea. Take Arsenal to win at 23/20.

CRYSTAL PALACE v. BOURNEMOUTH

“I think Palace will win this but there’s not a lot of value in that odds wise, so I’m going to go for the draw instead at 3/1.” Yeah…that’s not what we do here. Palace is on a nice run here to end the season with three wins and a draw in their last five Premier League matches, and the loss among those five was against Manchester City. Take Crystal Palace to win at 5/6.

FULHAM v. NEWCASTLE UNITED

“Could be Rafa’s last game in charge of Toon.  Fulham has had a mini-resurgence under Parker but this is where it ends.  I can basically walk to the stadium but I’m not paying £75 to see this–they should pay me. Newcastle to win and both teams to score at 16/5.” Honestly…I cannot improve on this pick. Fulham leaks goals like crazy but they also score a lot (seven out of their last nine in the league.) Take Newcastle to win AND both teams to score at 16/5.

LEICESTER CITY v. CHELSEA

“Another hard one to call but I do think there will be goals. I’d rather watch this than City. Over 3.5 goals at 6/4.” Again I agree. Leicester City has scored in 14 of 17 Premier League matches in 2019. Chelsea has scored in six of their last 7 league matches, and like Arsenal they will be looking to post a win heading into the Europa League final. Take over 3.5 goals at 6/4.

LIVERPOOL v. WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS

“If this weren’t at Anfield I’d take Wolves but as it is I’ll take Liverpool to win 2-0 at 5/1.” Again with these longshot predictions. Who does this guy think he is? That’s my move! I continue to think that one of City or Liverpool will drop points before the season ends, and since I don’t think City will lose, I will take Wolves to win OR draw at 27/10.

MANCHESTER UNITED v. CARDIFF CITY

“Fergie’s efforts to ensure that United would not be successful without him have probably worked better than even he could have hoped.  Let’s go for the draw at 5/1.” I’m all for gratuitous shots at Sir Alex Ferguson, but United isn’t losing this game. Cardiff is already thinking about the Championship next season, and has less than nothing to play for here. Take United to win AND over 2.5 goals at 3/5.

SOUTHAMPTON v. HUDDERSFIELD TOWN

“Why are they even bothering to play this game? This has last highlights on Match of the Day written all over it. In that spirit, let’s go for a goal kick awarded between 1:00 and 1:59 at 4/1.” I don’t care for that bet at all, though it does allow you to have your wager decided without having to watch even two full minutes of this terrible match. For the true masochists, though, take some very, very easy money — take Southampton to win at 2/5.

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v. EVERTON

‘The heroics over the Ajax Under-23s in mid-week will likely have taken a lot out of Spurs and it’s not a deep squad — I like Everton here at 13/5.” I like this pick for a similar-not-same reason: Spurs have the last Champions League place locked up unless Spurs lose, Arsenal wins and Arsenal eliminates an eight-goal deficit in goal difference. Neither Everton nor Arsenal is all that prolific. Take Everton to win at 13/5.

WATFORD v. WEST HAM

“I think this will be worth watching.  Let’s go draw no bet for West Ham to win at 5/4.” I agree that this might be the most entertaining match of the bunch, but Watford still has an FA Cup final to think about and therefore cannot mail this in. West Ham is pretty bad on the road, with four straight league losses away from the Olympic Stadium until beating Spurs on April 27. I think Watford is better and will be more motivated, so I’ll take Watford to win at 23/20.

Get your fill of the Premier League this weekend. August is a long time from now. And good luck.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS

Chelsea to win over Watford AND both teams to score at 9/5: LOSS

Manchester United to win over Huddersfield Town AND over 2.5 goals at 20/23: LOSS

Leicester City to draw (50 units) at 13/2 and to win (50 units) at Manchester City at 16/1: LOSS

LAST WEEK’S TOTAL: -$300

SEASON TO DATE: -$1,911