If you would have told me ahead of Game 2 in Toronto, where the Sixers never win, ever, that Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons would combine to score 18 points and grab 13 rebounds, I would’ve told you the Sixers are coming back to Philly in a 0-2 series hole. Not so, thanks to the clutch play of Don’t Call Me James Butler, unexpected contributions from James Ennis and Greg Monroe, and a stifling defense that held Toronto to 93.7 points per 100 possessions. Gotta say, didn’t see that one coming. And yet, here we are, and just like that the Sixers bring things back to Philly for a pivotal Game 3 with a chance to take control of the series. My, my! It looks like Mr. Momentum has a change of address, doesn’t he? That said, let’s take a look at Game 3, along with the historical and team performance trends to see if he stays with the Sixers.

Odds

Here are the Sixers-Raptors odds for Game 3:

DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread Money Total
Sixers +2 +108 217
Raptors -2 -122 217

PointsBet

Spread Money Total
Sixers +1.5 +105 217
Raptors -1.5 -125 217

Strap in. This line has been all over the place. The Sixers opened as a short favorite, but are now a short underdog at the time of this writing. I would continue to expect some volatility in the market as the game tipoff draws closer.


Free bets and parlay promos

It’s amazing how much one win can impact a market. Prior to Game 2, the Raptors were -435 to win the series at PointsBet, but now check in as cheap as -174 at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you like the Raptors to win this series, now seems like the time and FanDuel seems like the place. Meanwhile, the Sixers paid as much as +341 ahead of Game 2 but are now a modest +155 at PointsBet, which is currently the best Sixers price on the market.

If you’re looking for some good deals, be sure to take advantage of PointsBet’s  $50 free bet with no deposit and up to $1,000 in risk free bets with code BROADLINES.

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, they’re offering NBA Parlay Insurance. Place a bet of 4+ legs on any parlay during the playoffs at moneyline odds of -200 or greater. If you hit all but one of the bets, FanDuel will help ease the sting of a crushing loss by offering a cash refund of up to $25. FanDuel is also offering multi-sport parlay insurance with the same guidelines, meaning you can roll playoff hockey and basketball bets into parlays with regular season baseball plays.

Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, they are offering a different type of insurance promotion. Users that place a single money line bet on any NBA Playoff game from now until May 3 will be protected up to $50 from a loss if their team scores 100 points first and goes on to lose the game.

General betting trends

Let’s first start with each team’s overall performance against the spread. The Sixers haven’t been a good ATS bet this season, going only 43-46. The Raptors have been slightly worse, compiling a 41-47-1 ATS record. I’ll repeat what I said in the last article–just because a team is good, that doesn’t mean they are also a good bet.

Game specific

This game will likely be about the Raptors’ adjustments to the Sixers’ adjustments, as well as about the health of Joel Embiid and Mike Scott. The Raptors have two truly reliable offensive players and the Sixers are equipped to make them work. Raptors coach Nick Nurse must find a way to get Pascal Siakam going. Kawhi Leonard will get his, but if the Sixers can get even average performances from Embiid, Simmons, or Tobias Harris, they figure to be in decent shape.

What to make of the spread volatility

I have no idea where this spread will finish, so let’s lay it out both ways. The Sixers opened as a favorite, so we’ll star there. Toronto hasn’t found itself in the position of an underdog much this season, but they are a respectable 9-6 ATS when it has happened. For what it’s worth, they’ve been on the road in all 15 games they’ve played as an underdog this season. On the other hand, the Raptors are only 32-41-1 ATS as a favorite and 11-16-1 ATS as a road favorite. Based on these numbers, maybe the Sixers should be thankful this line has flipped.

The Sixers, meanwhile, are 31-32 ATS as a favorite overall and 22-20 ATS as a home favorite. As an underdog, they are 12-14 ATS overall and are 1-1 in their only two games as a home underdog this season.

What to make of the short line

Coming into my research, I was specifically interested in how each of these teams perform with short spreads. Essentially, how do they perform when oddsmakers set a line that reads, “This one is pretty even. Take your pick.” Sometimes the research reveals overwhelming trends that are impossible to ignore, sometimes the trends are inconclusive. The latter happened here. Consider the following historically trends dating back to the 2005 NBA Playoffs:

  • Home dogs of two points or less are 12-12 ATS in Game 3 of the postseason.
  • Home teams are 26-26 ATS in Game 3 of all postseason rounds when the spread is between -2 and +2, but only 4-7 ATS in Game 3s in the second round.

As for the Sixers’ own play this season with short lines, it’s…it’s not great. They are 0-4 ATS when the spread is between -2 and +2 during home games this season and 3-7 ATS in that spread range overall. However, when the spread is between 0 and 3 points, they’re 6-3 ATS. Given the drastic discrepancies in those trends, I wouldn’t put too much stock in these numbers. The Raptors, meanwhile, are 8-8 ATS this season when the spread is between -2 and +2, including 6-6 ATS on the road.

If you’re looking to bet on the Sixers and looking for something to give you some solace, then know that home teams are 92-67-1 ATS in the postseason when the spread is between -2 and +2 and 40-32-1 when an underdog of two points or less dating back to 2005.

Head-to-head trends

Of course, these overall team performance trends don’t tell the entire story, so let’s go a little bit deeper and look at how the two squads have performed head-to-head this season. The Raptors have the advantage here, going 4-2 ATS and SU against the Sixers this season. Toronto is 3-1 ATS and SU at home and 1-1 ATS and SU on the road.

What about Joel Embiid?

Will Joel Embiid play? Probably. If he does, something to consider:

Hopefully the stomach is stronger this time around. Either way, just know this: if Embiid plays, Philly is 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS this season when Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, JJ Redick, and Embiid start together. As for when Embiid sits out, the Sixers are 8-11 both SU and ATS.

Prediction

There’s nothing better than grinding out some research and coming away with a true feel for a game, but I don’t have one here. The short line doesn’t phase me, nor does the line movement, but to me, the Raptors feel like the better team through the first two games. Still, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the Sixers feed off the energy of what should be an electric Wells Fargo Center crowd and find a way to grind out a victory. In fact, I think I’ll go with that. Give me the Sixers +1.5. 

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