Sixers Raptors Game 4 Betting Preview: Odds, Line, Prediction

Sixers Raptors Game 4 Betting Preview
PHOTO CREDIT: BILL STREICHER-USA TODAY SPORTS

Raise your hand if after last Saturday’s Game 1 you had the Sixers taking the court on Sunday afternoon at the Wells Fargo Center with an opportunity to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over Toronto. Yeah, didn’t think so, but here we are. The Sixers put it on the Raptors in a 116-95 thumping Thursday night. They were dominant, outscoring Toronto in all four quarters, including the fourth quarter. Sixers fans know that one quite well–because they’ve watched this team blow many a game in the deciding quarter, but not this time. A 27-14 margin ensured Brett Brown’s squad would seize the upper hand in this series. Now, Philadelphia has a chance to send it back to Toronto with a 3-1 series lead against what appears to be a suddenly shellshocked Raptors squad. Poor Drake.

Really, I feel for him. You just hate to see it. 

Anyway, if you’re in the Greater Philadelphia area, the weather expects to be absolutely miserable, so you’re going to need something to do. There’s no better way to pass the time than by investing financially in a game that many of our readers will already be invested in emotionally. Go all in. Before you do, take a look at all of the best odds, promos, and betting tips for Sixers-Raptors Game 4.

The video was recorded before the line moved, but the points still stand.

Odds

Here are the Sixers-Raptors odds for Game 4:

DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread Money Total
Sixers -2 -127 214.5
Raptors +2 +112 214.5

PointsBet

Spread Money Total
Sixers -2 -131 214.5
Raptors -+2 +111 214.5

Much like Game 3, this line is again all over the place, except the movement has switched directions this time. The Raptors opened as a short 1.5-point favorite, but are now a short underdog. The right calf injury to Toronto’s Pascal Siakam probably has a lot to do with it. There could be some movement back towards Toronto, particularly because the general public probably can’t envision the Raptors falling behind 3-1, but it would be surprising if the Sixers aren’t still favored at tip-off.

Free bets and parlay promos

Prior to Game 3, the Raptors were -174 to win the series at FanDuel Sportsbook , but now check in as cheap as +105 PointsBet. If you like the Raptors to win this series, this is pretty damn cheap. Meanwhile, the Sixers paid as much as +341 ahead of Game 2 and +155 before Game 3 at PointsBet but are now -136 at DraftKings, which is currently the best Sixers price on the market.

If you’re looking for some good deals, be sure to take advantage of PointsBet’s  $50 free bet with no deposit and up to $1,000 in risk free bets with code BROADLINES.

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, they’re offering NBA Parlay Insurance. Place a bet of 4+ legs on any parlay during the playoffs at moneyline odds of -200 or greater. If you hit all but one of the bets, FanDuel will help ease the sting of a crushing loss by offering a cash refund of up to $25. FanDuel is also offering multi-sport parlay insurance with the same guidelines, meaning you can roll playoff hockey and basketball bets into parlays with regular season baseball plays.

Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, they are offering a different type of insurance promotion. Users that place a single money line bet on any NBA Playoff game from now until May 10 will be protected up to $50 from a loss if their team scores 100 points first and goes on to lose the game.

General betting trends

Let’s first start with each team’s overall performance against the spread. The Sixers haven’t been a good ATS bet this season, going only 44-46. The Raptors have been slightly worse, compiling a 41-48-1 ATS record. Again, just because a team is good doesn’t mean they are also a good bet. In terms of home/road performance, Philly is 24-21 ATS at home, while Toronto is 20-23-1 ATS on the road.

A rare underdog

Toronto hasn’t found itself in the position of an underdog much this season, but they are a respectable 9-6 ATS when it has happened. For what it’s worth, they’ve been on the road in all 15 games they’ve played as an underdog this season. The Sixers, meanwhile, are 31-32 ATS as a favorite overall and 22-20 ATS as a home favorite.

Playoff trends

The Sixers are a stellar 6-2 ATS in their eight playoff contests, while the Raptors are 4-4 ATS.

Spread trends

The Sixers are a brutal 4-12 ATS when favored between 1 and 3.5 points. The Raptors are 5-5 ATS when an underdog in the same range.

Historical trends

There are some historical trends in Game 4s that are worth looking at. For instance, when a team is at home in Game 4 and they’ve won two straight games in the series, those teams are 12-8-2 ATS in Game 4s, which is pretty good. Want to hear one that’s GREAT NEWS for Sixers fans? When the home team is favored by two points or less in Game 4 of a playoff series, those teams are 12-5 ATS since 2005. Ouuuu. The short line matters here. Painting with a broader brush now, home teams that are favored by two or less in any game or round of the postseason are 54-34 ATS during that same time frame. The takeaway? Short home favorites are hitting just over 60% of the time. If you’re looking at this game as a total coin flip, and you NEED the action, well, the percentages say to roll with the 10, 9, 8, 76ers. You degenerate, you. Here’s another one. This line has shifted an entire 3.5 points from the opening number to the current spread. Why does that matter, you ask? Great question. Really. When the spread shifts between two and four points in the direction of the home team, as it has with the Sixers here, those teams are 40-19 ATS in the postseason over the last 15 years.

Head-to-head trends

Of course, these overall team performance trends don’t tell the entire story, so let’s go a little bit deeper and look at how the two squads have performed head-to-head this season. The Raptors have the slight advantage here, going 4-3ATS and SU against the Sixers this season. Toronto is 3-1 ATS and SU at home and 1-2 ATS and SU on the road.

Prediction

If you’ve been around the sports betting game long enough, you’ve probably been involved in a situation similar to the one that seems to be playing out here. You back a team like Toronto because of its recent historical dominance and perceived superiority. Things don’t go well in a game, so then you double down, thinking to yourself, “Okay, they lose one. NBD. They’ll get it back tonight.” Then, the Raptors go out and get rolled the way they did in Game 3. Now, you’re back in this spot again where you’re like, “They’re the better team. No way they’re getting down three games to one.” So, you run it back again, because after all, this game is basically a pick ’em, and like, eight days ago this was going to be a four-game sweep. Now, you’re getting the supposedly better team just to even the series at a pick ’em.  Except that’s not what happens. Maybe I’m wrong here, but to me it feels like this line is basically baiting people to take the Raptors. Not because they are the better team, but only because the series wasn’t supposed to play out this way. Personally, I think it’s a trap. There’s enough positive historical data here for teams that profile similar to the Sixers that I’m comfortable rolling with them. Give me the Sixers -2. 

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13 Responses

    1. I hope you don’t mean my English soccer picks. Those are gold, Jerry, gold!

    2. Great betting advice Wanker. By the end of the week we’ll be talking about just how big of a failure the Process really was. Now, what’s up with that r@cist Kucker?

  1. Rip Ang. Farzetta has passed Cataldi in the AM ratings. Congrats to the Fanatic morning crew. You deserve it.

      1. Angelo is a morning radio genius from his show prep to character mix. I just want to know how I can be down.

  2. Well let me just quote the late-great Colonel Sanders, who said…”I’m too drunk to taste this chicken.”

  3. Hi….Kids!!!

    It’s me, Kyle the Klown with my latest gambling video. My gambling advice is worth exactly what you had to pay to see it! Well, full disclosure, maybe slightly less.

    Now, allow me to introduce my race-baiting sidekick Kink-O. Kink-O will insult all minorities, use insensitive slang terms to describe them and take no responsibility. His last job fired him but we snatched him right up and will keep him around until our sponsors figure it out.

    1. The advice regarding the opening spread was actually dead on and well worth the watch. Way more actionable than most of what I see other places.

  4. This guy Brett Brown guy is a terrible coach in the last 5 minutes I mean come on.

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