Phillies Betting Preview: Nationals Favored to Complete Sweep

PHOTO CREDIT: BRETT DAVIS-USA TODAY SPORTS

To say that yesterday was a bad day for the Phillies would be a gross understatement. A listless offense produced only two runs in Washington’s double-header sweep, and the Phillies lost another 1 1/2 games in the division standings as the Braves pounded the Mets. They have now lost 12 of their last 18 games, including seven of their last nine. Making matters worse for the Phillies, the scorching-hot Braves have gained 7 1/2 games in the division standings dating back to May 29. The Phils aren’t pitching when they’re hitting, they’re not hitting when they’re pitching–and the injuries continue to pile up with reliever Pat Neshek likely headed back to the IL after tweaking his hamstring last night. At least they’re playing hard:

Feel the sarcasm ooze forth, friends. Feel it. Anyway, the Phillies go at it again tonight with the Nationals at 7:05 pm as they look to avoid a three-game sweep. Will they? Let’s get into it.

Those of you in Pennsylvania, can find out more about how to get in on the action on our PA sports betting page.

Those of you in New Jersey, hit our NJ online sports betting page.

Phillies Nationals Odds

Here are the Phillies-Nationals odds for tonight’s game.

SugarHouse Sportsbook PA

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1 (+125) +100 O 10.5 (-110)
Nationals -1 (-148) -113 U 10.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-200) +100 O 10 (-200)
Nationals -1.5 (+170) -113 U 10 (+106)

PointsBet

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-120) -105 O 10.5 (-108)
Nationals -1.5 (+105) -115 U 10.5 (-108)

This line was as high as Nationals -125 early Thursday morning but has since trended back towards even ground. If you’re looking to take the Phillies on the moneyline, you can get the best price at DraftKings Sportsbook or SugarHouse. The Nationals are also slightly cheaper at DraftKings and SugarHouse, too. Meanwhile, those looking to hit the under in this one should head to PointsBet or SugarHouse where you get the extra 1/2 run at 10.5 (-110). Conversely, DraftKings’ total of 10 represents value for overs bettors.

Phillies-Nationals Need-to-Know Info

Phillies: Nick Pivetta has been a different pitcher since returning from a stint at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In five starts dating back to May 20, Pivetta has a 2.70 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .208 BAA and .248 OBP in 26.2 IP. His command has improved, too, as demonstrated by his diminished walk rate of 1.4 BB/9, and it’s a big reason why he has a 0.90 WHIP during that stretch.  The bad news? Pivetta is 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA in three career starts at Nationals Park, allowing 27 base runners in 10.2 IP, including four homers. His 2.531 WHIP there is his worst at any park in which he’s made multiple starts.

Nationals: The Nationals closed play on May 25 at 21-31, but since that time have gone 14-7. The difference in their play has been staggering. Since May 26, Washington’s offense has posted an .820 OPS (7th best in baseball) and a .483 SLG% (6th best), while pitching to a 3.73 ERA (T-4th).

General Betting Trends

  • The Phillies are 7-16 as a road underdog this season and only 7-18 (-916) as an underdog overall.  By losing the average $100 bettor a whopping $916, they are the second least profitable underdog in the NL this season behind only the Cubs.
  • The Phillies are also only 3-5 this season when a money line underdog between 100 and +125. The Nationals, however, have been even worse in this spread range, going 3-10 when favored between -130 and 100, including only 1-4 at home.
  • Philadelphia is 2-1 this season after 3 straight losses.
  • The Phillies haven’t been very good after getting shutout under Gabe Kapler. Dating back to the start of last season, they are only 5-10 after a shutout but are a more favorable 5-3 when having scored two runs or less in three straight games. Washington, meanwhile, is 12-7 when they have given up two runs or less in back-to-back games since the start of last season.

Prediction

Given the way the Phillies have played recently and Nick Pivetta’s struggles at Nationals Park, it takes quite the stomach to back the Phillies tonight, but I’m going to do it. I really like the way Pivetta has thrown lately and the Phillies should be ultra-motivated to salvage a game in this series before heading home. The Nationals’ poor performance as a short home favorite is something that really jumps out to me, so I’m going to roll with the Phils on the moneyline tonight.

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Email

One Response

  1. My comment was deleted? Well now I’m disincentivized from clicking any of these cheesy betting links. Say what you will about Tiger Beat (where I assume Kevy Wevy moonlights under a psuedonym) but at least they don’t delete people’s letters.

Comments are closed.