The Phillies swept the Mets out of Citizens Bank Park last week, temporarily getting things back on track at the end of what had otherwise been a miserable month of June. The good vibes lasted all of those four games with the Phillies losing two out of three in both Miami and Atlanta to fall into third place for the first time this season.

It has been an ugly fall from grace. Phillies pitchers have allowed a league-worst 150 homers this season. Meanwhile, the starting rotation has posted 5.29 ERA over the last 30 days, and that’s somehow better than the 6.52 ERA produced by the bullpen during the same period. Mix in an offense producing the 20th-best slugging percentage (.420), 20th-best average (.244), 19th-best OPS (.744), and for you hardcore folks out there, the 19th best wOBA (.315), and, well, that’s not great!

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Making matters worse for the Phillies, now they get to deal with New York’s Jacob deGrom, who had a 2.70 ERA with 11.5 K/9 in 40 IP last month. Surprisingly, despite another solid season from deGrom, the Mets are somehow only 5-12 in his 17 starts, and they are only 19-29 (-$829) since the start of the 2018 season despite his 2.22 ERA over that time frame. Meanwhile, the Phillies will counter with starter/turned reliever/turned starter again Vince Velasquez, who is 4.83 ERA as a starting pitcher this season. Unsurprisingly, the Phillies are only 3-6 in his starts.

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Phillies-Mets Odds

Here are the Phillies-Mets odds for tonight’s game.

SugarHouse Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-114) +175 O 8.5 (-112)
Mets -1.5 (-103) -200 U 8.5  (-105)

DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-114) +175 O 8.5 (-114)
Mets -1.5 (-103) -200 U 8.5 (-107)

PointsBet

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-110) +171 O 8.5 (-110)
Mets -1.5 (-110) -216 U 8.5 (-110)

If you’re looking to take the Phillies on the moneyline, you can get the same price at both DraftKings Sportsbook and SugarHouse Sportsbook. As of 4:30 pm this afternoon, DraftKings and Sugarhouse are each offering the Mets at -200, which is currently the best moneyline price. If you’re looking to play the over, PointsBet is giving you a total of 8.5 at the cheapest price (-110. Meanwhile, if you’re on the under, then roll with SugarHouse Sportsbook.

Phillies-Mets Lineups

First, for the Phillies:

  1. CF Kingery
  2. SS Segura
  3. RF Harper
  4. 1B Hoskins
  5. C Realmuto
  6. LF Bruce
  7. 2B Hernandez
  8. 3B Franco
  9. P Velasquez

And for the Mets:

  1. McNeil RF
  2. Alonso 1B
  3. Canó 2B
  4. Conforto CF
  5. Frazier 3B
  6. D. Smith LF
  7.  Ramos C
  8. Rosario SS
  9. deGrom RHP

Phillies-Mets Betting Trends

The Phillies are only 1-3 this season when an underdog of +160 or greater, and they are 3-10 as an underdog of +160 or more dating back to the start of last season. Meanwhile, the Mets have had varying degrees of success as a big favorite. While they are 4-2 when a moneyline favorite of -170 to -200 (which still isn’t profitable), they’re only 1-4 when a favorite of -190 or more, which includes four straight losses. In short, the Mets have been a bad play when a big favorite this season.

This same principle applies for the Mets against the Phillies. New York is 25-9 at home as a favorite against the Phils since the start of 2015 season, which is obviously pretty strong, but they are only 7-5 as a favorite of -190 or greater. As noted above, the Mets are only 19-29 overall in deGrom’s starts since the beginning of the 2018 season, including a woeful 5-12 this season. More surprising is the Mets’ 4-6 (-$417) mark when deGrom is on the hill as a -175 or greater moneyline favorite. A 40% conversion rate at that price is a bad, bad, bad bet.

On the other hand, the Phillies are only 9-19 (-$804) as an underdog this season, which makes them the sixth-least profitable underdog bet in baseball. Perhaps a greater concern is the Phillies’ dismal 14-32 record all-time when Vince Velasquez starts as an underdog, which includes a 4-14 record since the start of last season and an 0-3 mark this year.

One final note: The Mets were one of eight teams that didn’t play yesterday. They are 7-4 (+$285) this season after a day off.

Phillies-Mets Prediction

I’ll be totally honest with you here, not all games are created equal, and I’d probably take my money elsewhere tonight. The Phillies have been far too inconsistent over the past few weeks to put any faith in them–particularly with Vince Velasquez on the bump–even at a generous +175 number. On the other hand, the Mets are…the Mets. Their misery knows no bounds:

I noted the Phillies’ brutal 6.52 bullpen ERA over the last 30 days, but the Mets’ pen has been worse with a 6.56 ERA. Given their bizarre lack of success with deGrom on the mound and that they’ve been one of the least profitable big favorites in the sport this season, I have no confidence laying -200 or trusting that bullpen to hold onto a -1.5 run line bet. If you’re looking to play the game, I hope you can use the information provided above, but this one is a no play for me.