The Cowboys lost at home to the Vikings last night, falling to 5-4 on the season. They’re now tied with the Eagles at the top of the NFC East and hold the tiebreaker by virtue of the head-to-head win, though they’ll come to Philly to play the Birds again on December 22nd.

Dak Prescott was fantastic, so don’t blame him for the loss. He threw for 397 yards and three touchdowns, driving Dallas down the field in the fourth quarter only for the Kellen Moore and/or Jason Garrett to run the ball on 2nd and 2 and 3rd and 2 before passing on 4th and 5, which resulted in a turnover on downs:

https://twitter.com/betmybookie/status/1193744686516539392?s=20

Right, so now Dallas has home losses to the Packers and Vikings and road losses to the Jets and Saints.

They have the harder schedule from here on out, having to do this for the rest of the year:

  • at Lions
  • at Patriots
  • vs Bills
  • at Bears
  • vs Rams
  • at Eagles
  • vs Redskins

Unfortunately they’ll get Detroit without Matt Stafford, and the Rams actually kind of stink, so the draw looks a little better for them than it did a few weeks back.

Here’s the Eagles’ remaining schedule:

  • vs Patriots
  • vs Seahawks
  • at Dolphins
  • vs Giants
  • at Redskins
  • vs Cowboys
  • at Giants

I think we all agree that the Eagles don’t deserve a postseason berth if they lose to the triad of crappiness known at the Giants, Dolphins, and Redskins. Even if they lose to the Pats and Seahawks, they can get to 9-6 just off those four four games alone. The difference between 10-6 and 9-7 is going to be the Dallas game.

For purposes of the exercise, let’s say the Cowboys lose in New England and Philly but win those other games. They would also finish at 10-6, which brings divisional tiebreakers into play.

Here’s how the NFL determines who gets the nod:

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

It would go to #3, since both teams would be 10-6 with a win against each other while also having swept the Giants and Redskins to finish 5-1 within the NFC East.

As common opponents go, both the Eagles and Giants will finish the season having played:

  • Jets
  • Patriots
  • Dolphins
  • Bills
  • Vikings
  • Bears
  • Packers
  • Lions

Dallas is currently 1-3 against those squads while the Eagles are 4-2. The Cowboys have the more difficult task here.

There’s a path forward if the Birds take care of business. They can slip up against New England and Seattle and still win the division, simply because the Cowboys ain’t that good either.