How ’bout those Cowboys!? You know, how about them losing to the Patriots, and the Bills, and the Bears? Dallas, led by lame-duck head coach Jason Garrett, is in the midst of a three-game losing streak that has plummeted its record below .500 for the first time this season.
Following yet another disappointing loss last week, the Cowboys are now 0-6 against opponents with a winning record. While many experts keep asking when the Cowboys’ talent is finally going to show up, I have a different question—is this team actually that talented? Pairing a vastly overrated defense and an inefficient offense with a coaching staff likely in its final weeks isn’t exactly a recipe for success. Now they get to deal with a surging Rams squad that’s in must-win mode as they jockey for an NFC wild card berth. Which team will win, and which team will cover the spread? Let’s get into it with our Rams vs. Cowboys betting prediction and picks.
Also, be sure to check our full rundown of Week 15 picks right here.
How to Bet on Rams vs. Cowboys
Rams vs. Cowboys Odds
Quite a bit of line movement we have here. The Cowboys opened as a field goal favorite in this matchup, but the money poured in aggressively on the Rams, quickly making them a short favorite at most books by mid-week. Here are the current Rams vs. Cowboys odds as of late Sunday morning:
|Rams||0 (-110)||-114||O 48.5 (-110)|
|Cowboys||0 (-110)||+100||U 48.5 (-110)|
|Rams||+0.5 (-110)||-110||O 48 (-110)|
|Cowboys||-0.5 (-110)||-110||U 48 (-105)|
|Rams||+1 (-115)||-108||O 48.5 (-110)|
|Cowboys||-1 (-105)||+108||U 48.5 (-110)|
ELO projects the Rams as a one-point favorite and calculates a 54% win probability for the road team. With Los Angeles essentially listed as a pick ’em or a one-point favorite by the local market’s legal books, there is no more than one point of value in either direction as the the spread continues to adjust.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -114 moneyline price on the Rams at DraftKings is 53.3%, which means the moneyline is basically in line with what the ELO projection suggests to be appropriate.
As for the Cowboys, the implied win probability of their +100 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 50%, meaning there is no added value on a Dallas moneyline bet.
Cowboys vs. Rams Betting Trends
Note: All trends date back to the 2003 season unless otherwise noted.
Why Backing the Rams is a Good Bet
Rams Excel Away From LA
The Rams are tied for an NFL-best 9-4 ATS record this season, including 6-1 ATS away from Los Angeles.
Dallas will likely win the NFC East, I guess, but they are 0-6 against teams that currently sport a winning record. That matters.
Jason Garrett Is a Bad Coach
Maybe the Cowboys win today, but Jason Garrett is probably done in Dallas barring a miraculous turnaround. There are some strong trends working against his team today:
- The Cowboys are 9-17-2 ATS at home following a loss under Garrett and 2-12-2 ATS in this spot in November or later.
- The Cowboys are 6-16-1 ATS when they open as a home favorite following a loss and 3-9-1 ATS since the
- The Cowboys are 22-36-1 ATS when they open as a home favorite under Garrett. In fact, he has been the least
profitable NFL coach in this spot this decade.
- Home teams on a three-game losing streak are 53-69-4 ATS when they open as a home favorite and 25-
35-3 ATS when they open as a favorite of three points or less.
Rams Have Been Good Underdogs
If the Rams close as an underdog before kickoff, know that they are 4-1 ATS as road dogs under Sean McVay. They’re also 8-4 ATS under McVay when the spread is three points or less on either side.
Why Backing the Cowboys is a Good Bet
They’re Due, I guess
The “supremely talented” Cowboys are at home and should be thoroughly embarrassed by their play in recent weeks. This is an opportunity to right the ship on a big state prior to their likely NFC East winner-take-all game against the Eagles next week (assuming the Eagles can take care of business today, which is no given).
Bad vs. Good is…Good?
Teams that have won two straight games (Rams) that play a team on a three-game losing streak (Cowboys) are only 4-12-1 ATS when the spread is a field goal or less and 2-12 ATS on the road.
A Word on the Total
When the road team is averaging more than 23.5 points per game against a team averaging at least 25 points per game, the over is 28-18-1.
The over is also 21-9 when the road team averages more than 23.5 points per game and has gone under at least six times in a seven game stretch (the Rams). Keep an eye on the total because the over is also 6-1 in these games when the total closes at 49 points or more.
Where’s the Action?
The money is on the Rams.
As of late Sunday morning, 80% of spread bets and 72% of the spread handle back the Rams. As for the total, 52% of bets and 49% of the money sides with the over.
Bets We Like
Before we get to some props, FOX Bet is offering up a stellar promo today that includes the Rams. You can grab it by signing up here.
Super 6 Bet Boost
If you’re looking to score a big payout and like some favorites to win outright today, then you can grab the Packers, Texans, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Eagles, and Rams all to win (boosted from +1600 to +2000 odds).
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering a Freddie and Jason Elm Street Special this week. Ah, yes. The old Freddie (Kitchens) and Jason (Garrett) nightmare special. Grab the Browns and Cowboys to both lose at a boosted +350 payout right here.
Rams vs. Cowboys Prediction
It’s entirely possible that something finally clicks with the Cowboys this week, but I’ve run out of patience. I’m out.
Dallas, 0-6 against winning teams, is also 22-36-1 ATS when they open as a home favorite under Garrett, making him the least profitable NFL coach in this role this decade. Meanwhile, the surging Rams—in a must-win spot—are 6-1 ATS away from Los Angeles this season. I just can’t ignore those realities.
Prediction: Rams (pick) over Cowboys
* I also like Rams to go OVER 23.5 points.