The opening round of the NFL Playoffs brought us plenty of closely contested games, questionable coaching decisions, upsets, and drama, which begs the question–what’s in store this weekend as each conference’s top two seeds enter the fray? Within this NFL Divisional Round predictions and picks post, we’ll attempt to answer this question and more.

For instance, will heavily-favored top seeds like the Ravens, 49ers, and Chiefs roll on their way to the conference championship round, or will big underdogs like the Titans, Vikings, and Texans crash the party? Can Russell Wilson continue his wizardry and carry the Seahawks to a second straight postseason road win—this time over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at Lambeau Field?

Without further ado, let’s take a look at some betting trends and data in order to break down the sides and totals of all four games.

Vikings vs. 49ers

  • Spread: Vikings (+7), 49ers (-7)
  • Moneyline: Vikings (+255), 49ers (-295)
  • Total: 44
  • Date: Saturday, 4:35 pm, NBC

[sportsbook filters=”teams:Minnesota Vikings,books:DraftKings”]

The first game of the weekend kicks off on the west coast where the San Francisco 49ers host the Minnesota Vikings. This matchup is a bit of a surprise as basically nobody outside of the state of Minnesota had the Vikings marching into New Orleans and coming away with an upset win last Sunday. But behind 130 scrimmage yards from running back Dalvin Cook, some big-time throws from quarterback Kirk Cousins, and a relentless defense, that’s exactly what happened. Now, the Vikings will try to pull off another stunner on Saturday afternoon.

Here’s what we know—the 49ers are good. Really good. But they enter this game with some questions. How will quarterback Jimmy Garappolo perform in his first postseason start? After all, keep in mind that quarterbacks making their first postseason start are only 9-17 straight up since the 2010 playoffs (this includes a 1-5 record last year).

The other pressing question for San Francisco concerns its defense. Namely, which defense will show up—the one that surrendered only 12.75 points per game over its first eight games, or will it be the one that yielded 26 points per contest over the second half of the regular season? In fact, after the 49ers allowed no more than 20 points in any of their first seven games, the opposition eclipsed that mark a whopping seven times over their final nine games.

Working in San Francisco’s favor is that No. 1 seeds are 24-10 straight up in the divisional round since 2003, but they’re only 11-5 straight up when playing a No. 6 seed. Not a terrible mark, but also far from dominant. Moreover, No. 1 seeds are only 12-21-1 ATS in the divisional round, including only 7-15-1 ATS against wild card teams.

The betting action is worth keep an eye on as kickoff nears. San Francisco was drawing the bulk of public bets early in the week, but the market is a 50/50 split as of Friday afternoon. Why does this matter? Since 2003, postseason underdogs of 7-9 points that are getting less than 50% of the public action are 18-4-1 ATS, including 14-4-1 ATS when an underdog of 7-8 points. I relied on this trend last week when I took Minnesota with the points in New Orleans, so I’ll have my eye on the betting splits throughout the day Saturday.

In assessing the various betting trends this week, one thing became clear—postseason underdogs cover more often than not and that’s especially true in the upcoming round. Road playoff underdogs of 7-9 points are 20-11-1 ATS, including 10-5-1 ATS in the divisional round.

Minnesota has also been a solid underdog play under head coach Mike Zimmer, which isn’t all that much of a surprise given Zimmer-coached teams are typically run-oriented and play solid defense. In fact, the Vikings are 18-12 ATS as a road underdog under Zimmer, including 6-3 ATS as an underdog of at least 6.5 points. The Vikings are also an outstanding 15-6 ATS as an underdog against non-NFC North opponents, including 11-4 ATS on the road.

In terms of the total, we saw the under cash in all four games last weekend, continuing a trend that has seen under plays hit at a crazy rate since the 2003 postseason. While the under is now 44-24 (64.7%) in the wild card round since the  ’03 postseason, such plays are only 28-35-1 in the divisional round during that same timeframe.

The over is 9-6 in divisional round games that close between 44-46 points and 6-3 with a closing total in this same range when the road team went under in the previous game. The over is also 7-2 in road games coached by Mike Zimmer that close between 44.5-46 points, so my lean is on the over in this one.

Vikings vs. 49ers Pick

The 49ers are well-rested, plus they have the added benefit of home-field advantage, so I can’t pick the Vikings to win. I can, however, pick the Vikings to cover the spread. The combination of Garappolo’s inexperience paired with a defense that has been shaky in the season’s second half should open the door for a Minnesota team that has played well as a road underdog. I expect a close game, so I’ll grab the Vikings (+7) over the 49ers.

Titans vs. Ravens

  • Spread: Titans (+9.5), Ravens (-9.5)
  • Moneyline: Titans (+350), Ravens (-420)
  • Total: 47
  • Date: Saturday, 8:15 pm, CBS

[sportsbook filters=”teams:Baltimore Ravens,books:DraftKings”]

The Titans proved last weekend that they are more than capable of winning on the road in a hostile environment with their upset win over the Patriots. Powered by a dominant performance from running back Derrick Henry, Tennessee will have an opportunity to silence any remaining doubters in Baltimore on Saturday night.

Led by likely NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, the well-rested Ravens are riding a 12-game winning streak and haven’t lost since late September. Certainly, it’s not hard to see why they are nearly a double-digit favorite over the Titans, nor is hard to see why they have the best Super Bowl odds entering the weekend.

Simply put, Baltimore has been the NFL’s most consistent team this season, impressively passing every test its faced for over three months, yet that should be a concern for bettors looking to back the favorite in this contest. Somewhat surprisingly, teams on a winning streak of at least 10 games are 0-7 ATS in the postseason. Though this trend is born from a fairly small sample size, I think it pretty clearly ties in with the larger trend of struggles for divisional round favorites.

Bettors looking to back the Ravens this weekend should also be wary that postseason road underdogs of 8.5-10 points are 14-6 ATS, including 11-4 ATS in the divisional round. Those teams are also an outstanding 6-1 ATS when they win as a road team the previous week.  As if that wasn’t enough cause for concern, the Ravens are 4-8 ATS in Jackson’s home starts, including 2-6 ATS as home favorites of at least six points. Meanwhile, the Titans are 7-3-1 ATS in Ryan Tannehill’s starts.

Not great!

Fortunately for the Ravens, John Harbaugh has been an excellent postseason coach in terms of covering the spread, posting an 11-5 ATS playoff record.

In terms of the total, the over is 14-10 in postseason games that close between 46-47 points, and it’s 5-2 in this range during the divisional round.

Titans vs. Ravens Pick

As noted above, there are some strong trends favoring the over in this matchup, but with heavy winds expected at M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday night, I’m reluctant to pull the trigger. Instead, I’m going to grab the points and take the Titans (+9.5) to cover against the Ravens.

Texans vs. Chiefs

  • Spread: Texans (+9.5), Chiefs (-9.5)
  • Moneyline: Texans (+350), Chiefs (-435)
  • Total: 51
  • Date: Sunday, 3:05 pm, CBS

[sportsbook filters=”teams:Houston Texans,books:DraftKings”]

The Chiefs are in the postseason for a fourth straight year and are hoping this is the year that they finally break through with a long-awaited return to the Super Bowl. Standing in their way will be a Texans team that needed quarterback Deshaun Watson to pull a mesmerizing second-half magic act (and a Buffalo implosion) to squeak by the Bills in overtime a week ago.

My initial assessment of this game was that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs would blow the doors off the Texans, but upon further review, there are some concerns. The Chiefs are only 5-3 straight up at home this season, and despite the fact that No. 2 seeds are 21-11 straight up in the divisional round of the postseason since 2003, they’re only 2-3 straight up when more than a -400 moneyline favorite.

Compounding the concern born from these trends is that road teams coming off a win of three points or less are 9-4-1 ATS in the divisional round. Admittedly, there has been some regression with this trend in recent years as such teams had been 8-1 ATS prior to the 2015 season. Still, history suggests the Chiefs are from a lock to win outright, let alone cover.

Ultimately, I have a hard time moving past the coaching matchup in this game. I don’t fancy myself as a Bill O’Brien guy, and though Reid has more than his fair share of detractors, I truly believe he’s one of the game’s best coaches. Historically speaking, Reid’s teams have been outstanding with extra rest. Dating back to the 2003 season, his squads are 9-5 ATS at home with at least 11 days of rest, including 3-1 ATS with the Chiefs.

It’s true that Reid is only 2-5 ATS in the postseason with Kansas City, but Houston’s track record as an underdog under O’Brien is downright startling. The Texans are only 22-29-1 ATS as an underdog under O’Brien, including 3-8-1 ATS as an underdog of at least seven points. They are 2-6 ATS as an underdog of at least eight points.

While there’s plenty of conflicting trends about the side, they are much more decisive on the total.

The under is 11-5-2 in non-dome postseason games with a closing of at least 50 points and 11-4-2 in games that close with a total of at least 51 points, including 5-3-1 in the divisional round.

Hammering the under in Chiefs home games has been an extremely profitable play since Reid took over in Kansas City. The under is 36-23-1 in his games coached at Arrowhead Stadium, including 16-7 in the months of December and January. The under has been flat-out money in Reid’s postseason games, too, with a 12-6-1 mark since ’03, including an outstanding 9-1-1 record at home.

Texans vs. Chiefs Pick

I picked against the Texans at home last weekend, so I’m certainly not taking them to advance over the Chiefs on the road this weekend. I trust Reid more than O’Brien, so my lean is to lay the 9.5 points with the Chiefs. I’m a bit reluctant to do that, however, so my focus in this game is on the total.

The Texans know they can’t outduel the Chiefs in a shootout, so I expect them to take the air out of the ball and slow things down a bit. I’ll rely on the overwhelming trends that point to this game staying under the total of 51 points.

Seahawks vs. Packers

  • Spread: Seahawks (+4.5), Packers (-4.5)
  • Moneyline: Seahawks (+180), Packers (-210)
  • Total: 47
  • Date: Sunday, 6:40 pm, FOX

[sportsbook filters=”teams:Seattle Seahawks,books:DraftKings”]

Am I a hater? Yeah, you could probably call me a hater.

I hate this Seahawks team. I just do. It’s nothing against Russell Wilson or Pete Carroll—I just don’t think that this is a very good football team.

Seattle was outgained in yardage during the regular season and posted only a +8 point-differential. Kudos to the Seahawks for advancing to the divisional round, but they weren’t particularly impressive in outlasting what was an already injury-ravaged Eagles team that then lost quarterback Carson Wentz to a concussion in the first quarter.

Hell, 40-year-old backup quarterback Josh McCown played the second half of that game with a torn hamstring—and the Seahawks had to sweat it out to the very end. At the end of the day, I know that they don’t ask how you win, just if you win—but Seattle’s “how” feels relevant to me when looking at this matchup.

For the purpose of full disclosure, there are some strong historical trends that suggest Seattle is the right betting side. Both the Seahawks’ own performance as an underdog and the general betting trends support this idea.

The Seahawks are 19-9-2 ATS as a road underdog with Wilson at quarterback, and they are 6-2-1 ATS away from home this season.

Beyond the Seahawks’ stellar record as a road underdog, league-wide trends suggest betting against home favorites in the divisional round is a good idea as road dogs are 36-24-1 ATS record overall. Furthermore, divisional round road underdogs that won the previous week by at least eight points are 21-12 ATS, including 3-0 ATS when winning by 8-10 points.

That’s all fine and well, but Aaron Rodgers will be standing on the opposite sideline on Sunday evening, and there’s almost no better bet than the Packers at home with Rodgers under center. Only Tom Brady has been a more profitable quarterback in both the role of favorite and home favorite than Rodgers. He’s 84-57-3 ATS as a favorite and 51-31-3 ATS as a home favorite at Lambeau Field. He’s also been pretty damn good at home this season with a 101.6 passer rating and 14/2 TD/INT ratio.

If you want to skip the side and just root for a great football game, then let’s briefly hit on the game total.

It’s going to be cold. That’s going to prevent scoring, right?

Not exactly.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 20s at kickoff, but cold weather has proven to have zero to little impact on offensive output. The over is 72-52-2 (58.1%) in all games played with average temperature of 25 degrees or less, including 18-10-1 in the postseason.

Seahawks vs. Packers Pick

Russell Wilson is a one-man magic show propping up an otherwise mediocre team. That was enough against a depleted Eagles squad, but I don’t believe that will be the case on Sunday night. I like the Packers to not only win but cover and advance to the NFC Championship Game. I’ll also take these two teams to open things up and push the scoring over the total of 47 points.