Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds 2020: Favorite, Picks, Total

The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds are out, and for the first time in event history, bettors will be able to wager on this holiday tradition at legal sportsbooks.

That’s right, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest odds in states like New Jersey and Colorado. Let’s break down all of the gluttonous action by taking closer look at the favorites and making some hot dog picks and predictions.

Grab $1,000 in free bets and wager on the 2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest at DraftKings Sportsbook by clicking right here.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds (Men’s)

Joey Chestnut (-1250)
The Field (+650)

For the first time, legal sports betting markets are offering Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. The odds are dominated by overwhelming favorite Joey Chestnut.

Chestnut enters this year’s event riding a streak of four straight wins, including victories in 12 of the last 13 competitions overall. His lone blemish came back in 2015 when No. 3 ranked Matt Stonie pulled off a major upset. Stonie put down 62 hot dogs that year, while Chestnut fell just short with 60 wieners.

Since then, Chestnut has stepped up his game, eating no less than 70 hot dogs dating back to the 2016 event.

Simply put, he is the G.O.A.T. of competitive eating. He’s the world’s current No. 1 ranked eater and holds several prestigious competitive eating records.

Chestnut’s reign of dominance dates back to the 2007 event when he knocked off the legendary Takeru Kobayashi, who, of course, helped put competitive eating on the map.

It’s important to note his dominance when evaluating the odds. Chestnut is such an overwhelming favorite that DraftKings Sportsbook didn’t bother to offer specific odds for any other eater. However, there has been some movement since the odds first posted on Wednesday.

Chestnut opened at -1250 and dropped down to -1000 later in the week. As of this morning, however, he’s back up to -1250, so the late money to the action is obviously rolling with the favorite.

Is there any value on the field? Probably not–but anything is possible, I guess. It is 2020 after all.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds (Women’s)

Miki Sudo (-1000)
The Field (+550)

Much like the men’s competition, the women’s event is also headlined by a dominant heavy favorite in Miki Sudo.

Like Chestnut, Sudo is also in the midst of a dominant run that has seen her take home the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest crown in six straight years. Dating back to 2014, when she defeated Sonya Thomas, Sudo, the world’s top ranked female competitive eater, has breezed past the competition.

In fact, Sudo has been so dominant that she won last year by eating a personal-worst 31 hot dogs after peaking in 2017 with a 41 hot dog effort.

There has been some late movement in the women’s odds as Sudo held steady at -835 throughout the week, but she’s now -1000 to win it.

Hot Dogs Eaten Over/Under

Bettors who aren’t too big on the idea of laying crazy odds on heavy favorites will be happy to know that DraftKings Sportsbook is offering more manageable odds on the over/under of hot dogs eaten. There are two different markets available for Joey Chestnut, while there is a single over/under market for Miki Sudo.

The first Chestnut market allows bettors to wager on whether he will break his own previous world record of 74 hot dogs eaten set back in 2018:

Over 74.5 (+105)
Under 74.5 (-137)

Note: DraftKings is offering a +200 odds boost on this total. Get it here

While nobody wants to bet against greatness, Chestnut has a few factors working against him. First, he’s essentially competing against himself. He’s been so utterly dominant that it’s worth wondering if he will be able to push himself to break his own world record (again).

The other consideration is his own track record. Despite setting the world record in 2018, he’s averaging only 71.75 hot dogs eaten dating back to the 2016 event. That’s why the under is juiced for this total. That said, keep in mind that this year’s event is indoors and should serve as optimal eating conditions.

Those rooting for an over can also grab it at 72.5:

Over 72.5 (-143)
Under 72.5 (+110)

Note: The over has gotten cheaper in the 24 hours leading up to the event.

Here are the over/under odds for Miki Sudo at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Over 40.5 (-137)
Under (40.5) (+105)

Taking history into account, this line is a bit ambitious. Sudo, while dominant, has only surpassed 40.5 hot dogs eaten once in her Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest career. That came back in 2017 when she put down 41 hot dogs.

In fact, Sudo has averaged only 36.6 hot dogs eaten during her six-year championship run. Perhaps she wants to make a statement following her mediocre 31 hot dog effort of a year ago, but history suggests a line that is simply too high.

2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Picks

Bad news for bettors hoping to parlay the two heavy favorites together–this move is prohibited. Still, there’s ways to make some reasonable bets.

While I expect both favorites to prevail, perhaps a shot on the field at +550 on the men’s side is worth a look from a value standpoint.

Pick: I can’t bet against Chestnut, but I’m passing because of price.

On the women’s side, Sudo is going to win. Currently, there’s nobody even in the same neighborhood with her. Plus, the inflated 40.5 line suggests that she’s poised to have a monster bounceback following a 31 hot dog effort of a year ago. If I’m backing one of the two winners, it’s Sudo.

Pick: I’ll take Miki Sudo to win, but again the price is very restrictive.

I’m more intrigued by the totals markets. As I mentioned above, I’m not sure Chesnut will have the drive to break his world record. I also wonder how the event being held in doors will factor as the event is being held at a private location due to COVID-19 concerns. While temperatures and conditions should be more favorable, the typical adrenaline rush of the Coney Island spectacle won’t be there. Chestnut recently said he can down 77 hot dogs–I’m betting against it.

Pick: I’m going under 74.5 hot dogs eaten by Chestnut. This is my play of the day.

Grab $1,000 in free bets and wager on the 2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest at DraftKings Sportsbook by clicking right here.