Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Odds and Prediction (Friday, July 24)
Baseball is finally back tonight, which means sports betting is back, so let’s jump right into it with a look at some Phillies vs. Marlins betting odds and predictions.
It’s been a long time coming for Pennsylvania and New Jersey sports bettors as they awaited the restart of mainstream sports, and with the return of Phillies baseball at Citizens Bank Park this evening, they’ve finally got it.
Their opponent is a Miami Marlins team that despite winning only 57 games a season ago still somehow managed to pull off a winning record (10-9) against the Phillies. With each game carrying greater importance with an abbreviated season and the Phillies dealing with a stacked schedule, it’s absolutely critical that they master the Marlins and get off to a fast start.
The wait has been long enough, so without further ado, let’s get into some Phillies vs. Marlins odds, promos, and predictions.
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds
Let’s get things started with a quick look at the Phillies vs. Marlins odds at FOX Bet:
| Teams | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | +1.5 (-115) | +175 | Over 8.5 (-133) |
| Phillies | -1.5 (+110) | -200 | Under 8.5 (+110) |
A quick look here shows that the Phillies are an overwhelming favorite in the opener. That’s to be expected given that one of game’s best pitchers, Aaron Nola, is on the mound at home against a team that is widely expected to finish last in the National League East. Meanwhile, the total is set at 8.5 runs, with the “over” as the pricier option.
As always, be sure to shop around and compare odds at at least two different sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best value, but these prices are pretty much in line with the market standard.
Phillies Betting Promos
Speaking of shopping around, there are a ton of great sportsbook promos out there to celebrate baseball’s return. Let’s take a look a look at some of the best offers.
DraftKings Sportsbook
States: AZ, CO, CT, IA, KY, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY
DraftKings Sportsbook has some good stuff for baseball bettors this weekend. To go along with $1,000 in risk-free bets, DraftKings has a Major League Baseball Opening Weekend HR Bonus. When bettors wager at least $25 on featured MLB games, they get an extra $5 for every homer their team hits.
DraftKings Sportsbook also has an odds boost on the Phillies to win and the game total to go over 8.5 runs (boosted from +150 to +185).
PointsBet
If you live in New Jersey (or are headed to the shore from out of state), then be sure to take advantage of PointsBet’s Make It Rain promo.
Start at PointsBet with a stellar deposit match that gives you some extra cash to play this weekend’s action, then check out the Make It Rain promo. Those who bet a minimum of $50 on a pregame moneyline or runline bet stand to get an extra $10 for each home run hit by the team you back.
For instance, if you bet on the Phillies tonight, and they go on to pop three homers (an entirely plausible outcome), that’s an additional $30. Essentially, this is a nice way to increase your payout, or, it serves as a way to take the sting out of a loss.
FOX Bet
FOX Bet, which also offers up $1,000 in risk-free bets for new users, is giving all players up to $50 free when they bet on baseball. Bet just $5 on a team and pick up a bonus $5 for every run it scores (capped at a $50). If you’re in PA, click the link above. If you’re in New Jersey, hit it here.
My suggestion? Find a squad that you think stands to put up some runs tonight and let it rip. Best of all, it takes only a $5 bet to activate this offer, so it’s low-risk for a reward that can total 10x the initial investment.
FOX Bet has some separate bet boost offers on the Phillies:
- Phillies, Cubs, and Astros all to win with a +300 payout (boosted from +250).
- Phillies to win by 1 or 2 runs (boosted to +250 from +225)
- Bryce Harper and Pete Alonso to both homer (boosted to +900 from +800)
FanDuel Sportsbook
Must 21+ and present in participating state. Gambling problem? Call 1 - 800 - GAMBLER.
FanDuel Sportsbook offers new players a $500 risk-free first bet. Moreover, FanDuel is also giving away a separate $100 in risk-free bet day between now and August 2nd. It also offers a fantastic 7th inning stretch insurance.
Place a baseball bet, and if you’re team is winning at the seventh inning stretch but goes on to lose the game, you get your money back. It’s never a bad idea to protect yourself against leaky bullpens.
Phillies vs. Marlins Predictions and Picks
There’s a few things to consider before betting on this game. Is it likely the Phillies, with the better lineup and better pitcher, win at home? Yes.
However, Aaron Nola was actually 0-2 against the Marlins in 2019 despite posting a 2.08 ERA in those two starts. He also allowed only a .585 OPS to Marlins hitters. Meanwhile, over his past two Opening Day starts, here’s Nola’s combined line: 11.1 IP, 5H, 2R, 11K.
Pretty damn good.
Still, the Phillies failed to score more than two runs in nine of Nola’s starts last season. Naturally, he went only 2-5 in those starts despite posting a 3.05 ERA.
Another thing to be a bit wary of is that the Phillies were great in Nola’s home starts in 2018, going 14-3. In all other years they are only 24-24 in Nola’s home starts. They’re also only 5-4 in his starts when favored by -190 or more. In short, the Phillies don’t cash frequently enough as a big favorite in his starts to be profitable.
Nola will be opposed by 2019 All-Star Sandy Alcantara, who was 6-14 a year ago with a respectable a 3.88 ERA. Those numbers are a true testament to how bad the Marlins were last season.
Alcantara was 2-1 against the Phillies with a 3.86 ERA. However, a closer look shows the Phils actually put some pressure on Alcantara in those starts, but they couldn’t break through. In 18.2 IP, he allowed 27 and 7 walks (1.821 WHIP), while Phils’ hitters posted an .855 OPS.
Phillies Marlins Pick
Ultimately, Opening Day is about feeling and vibe. The Phillies had nearly everything go right during the three-week summer camp at Citizens Bank Park.
For one, they’ve stayed healthy. But they also appear to be a focused and motivated team following a disappointing 2019 season.
I’m willing to bet that they get out to a quick start and grab a win tonight, but I’m not thrilled about laying -200 odds. That being said, I don’t trust the volatility of this bullpen to go with a runline wager, so I’ll pay the price. I’ll take the Phillies -200.
One other note, Bryce Harper has a flair for the dramatic. He has five career Opening Day homers. You can grab him to go deep at +375 with DraftKings Sportsbook right here.
