Phillies vs. Yankees Betting Preview: Phils Massive Underdogs After Week Off

There are a lot of storylines on the board tonight, so let’s jump right into our Phillies vs. Yankees betting preview.

The Phillies get things started (again) on Monday after coronavirus caused a seven-day disruption to their season. Welcoming them back will be the 7-1 Yankees, who are fresh off a three-game sweep of the Red Sox.

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Aaron Judge is red-hot. Ace Gerrit Cole is on the mound. The Yankees have won six-straight games.

Meanwhile, the Phillies spent most of last week stuck at home, throwing baseballs off of brick walls and mattresses to stay sharp. Seriously.

Girardi says some of his guys have thrown “baseballs against mattresses” and “brick walls” in an effort to stay in shape. #Phillies

— Bob Wankel (@BobWankelCB) August 1, 2020

It’s little wonder, then, why the Yankees opened (and remain) a huge favorite tonight. Let’s get into our Phillies vs. Yankees betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.

Phillies vs. Yankees Odds

Here are the current Phillies vs. Yankees odds (as of mid-Monday morning), courtesy of FOX Bet:

Teams	Runline	Moneyline	Total
Phillies	+1.5 (-190)	+120	Over 8 (-113)
Yankees	-1.5 (+160)	-139	Under 8 (-108)

These are some eye-popping odds. In fact, at 7 a.m. this morning, these were nearly unprecedented odds.

Before the market adjusted, the Yankees were priced at -375, with the Phillies at +300. The Phillies have only been more than a +280 underdog three times going back to at least the 2004 season:

The Phillies were +283 against the Dodgers in September 2017, a game in which they pulled off a big 4-3 upset over starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw.
They were also +343 in September 2017 against the Nationals in an 11-10 loss.
Finally, the Phillies were +330 in July 2015 against the Dodgers in a 5-0 loss.

Obviously, the market has come back a little bit, but these prices are still rare for the Phillies. Dating back to 2005, the Phillies have only been a +250 underdog or more 10 times. They also haven’t been more than a +250 underdog since that aforementioned Dodgers game back in 2017.

Of course, with 2019 strikeout leader Gerrit Cole making his first home start as the Phillies shake off what figures to be a considerable amount of rust, it’s not hard to see why the Yankees are such a monster favorite in this one.

Phillies vs. Yankees Betting Promos

Let’s take a look at both the PA online sports betting and NJ online sports betting promos to search for some value.

If you’re in New Jersey, the best promo of the day is 100% at BetMGM, which is paying $100 on bets of just $1 if either team hits a home run tonight. Gerrit Cole is a stud, no doubt, but he has given up two homers this season, while the Yankees have popped a Major League Baseball-best 17 homers. Given the both likelihood this prop hits and the awesome value, it’s a no-brainer deal.

DraftKings Sportsbook

As always, DraftKings Sportsbook gives new players up to $1,000 in free bets, but there some additional offers out there tonight. With the MLB Live Bet Boost, any baseball live bet comes with a 10% profit boost. This means that following first pitch, you can hop in and grab any live betting market and score an extra 10% on a potential win. Grab it right here.

Late addition: DraftKings has released prop boost for tonight on Aaron Judge to homer at an enhanced +400 payout (boosted from +270).

FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel Sportsbook has a $500 risk-free first bet offer and some key seventh inning stretch insurance tonight. Those that place at least a $50 moneyline bet are protected up to $50 if their team blows a lead and loses following the seventh inning stretch.

FOX Bet

FOX Bet gives new players $1,000 in free bets and has a long shot boost available. Grab the Phillies, Mets, and Rockies each to win this evening at a boosted +1200 odds in PA here and NJ here.

Phillies vs. Yankees Betting Preview

With the promos out of the way, let’s take a closer look at this matchup with our Phillies vs. Yankees betting preview.

Rust Likely Outweighs Rest

The Phillies are going to play baseball tonight. We know that much. After yet another round of negative COVID-19 tests were confirmed Monday morning, the Phillies are on track to take the field for the first time in more than a week.

For a variety of reasons, the Phillies are facing an uphill battle tonight.

Major League Baseball players are creatures of habit. The effects of a week-long disruption figure to be obvious as they finally return to action. As the Yankees spent last week roughing up the Orioles and Red Sox, the Phillies spent the majority of it in isolation, hoping to avoid the COVID-19 outbreak that ravaged the Marlins clubhouse as the two teams opened the season.

After shutting down on Monday and Tuesday, the Phillies practiced Wednesday but were again forced to shutdown operations on Thursday and Friday. The team did get back into Citizens Bank Park for weekend workouts, but it’s going to be tough for them to just rev it back up at 100% following such a significant disruption.

A Tough Test

Making matters worse for the Phillies, they will have to deal with Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who is making his regular season debut in the Bronx tonight. Cole enters with a 2-0 record and a 3.09 ERA.

In 11.2 IP, Cole has yielded just five hits and and three walks while striking out 12 batters. His minuscule 0.686 WHIP represents how much of a challenge it will be for Phillies hitters to reach base tonight, let alone score runs.

Cole will be opposed by Jake Arrieta, who makes his first start of the season. Arrieta has underwhelmed during his first two seasons with the Phillies but enters 2020 fully healthy after being forced to shut it down last August.

He told reporters Sunday that he expects to be good for 80-90 pitches on Monday night. He’ll be tasked with slowing a Yankees lineup that has scored at least five runs in five straight games.

Of course, the key to slowing down the Yankees appears to be keeping slugger Aaron Judge, who has a 1.295 OPS this season, in check. That’s a big ask as Judge has bashed six homers over his last five games.

What Are The Phillies?

The other question to consider is this–are the Phillies good? It’s virtually impossible to assess the value of a team in 10 games. The Phillies have played only three, albeit fairly underwhelming ones against the Marlins to open the season.

Presumably, the Phillies are a National League postseason contender but appear to have significant bullpen concerns which could derail those plans.

Even if Arrieta can keep them afloat in the early innings, the bullpen’s ability to shut the door late is questionable, at best.

Phillies vs. Yankees Prediction

It’s time to make a Phillies vs. Yankees prediction.

There’s no way that an impartial observer can project a Phillies win tonight. Concerns over rust, paired with the Yankees’ distinct pitching advantage, are too much to bet against. That said, the Phillies do have some non-baseball elements working in their favor.

It’s entirely possible the week off has a galvanizing effect on the Phillies, as the adversity of the past week could spark a rallying cry throughout the team.

Joe Girardi is also back in the Bronx to manage his first regular season game there after the Yankees fired him following the 2017 season. The Phillies clubhouse has a great deal of respect for Girardi, and they know this would be a sweet one to get tonight.

Phillies vs. Yankees Pick

Maybe I’m crazy, but I actually expect Arrieta to pitch well tonight. He showed some promising signs throughout the team’s summer camp workouts and seems to be in a good place.

Grabbing the Yankees to stay under the team total of 5.5 runs feels bold, but I’m inclined to do it.

In terms of betting this game, I can’t lay -300 on the Yankees.

Will they win? Probably. But check this out. Since 2005, home teams that are -300 or more are 15-6 when riding at least a five-game winning streak, but that record has actually resulted in a net loss of -$154.

If you want to grab the Yankees, you’re better off taking them at -2 (-121) or Cole to get the win at -148 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

You can also take the Yankees to win by 1-3 runs (+135) at FanDuel Sportsbook to help reduce some cost.