Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds, Prediction, Picks (April 27, 2021)

phillies cardinals odds picks predictions
Photo Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies will look to win back-to-back road games for the first time this season tonight in St. Louis when they send Zach Eflin (1-0, 2.77 ERA) to the mound against Carlos Martinez (0-4, 6.00 ERA). With Eflin off to a fantastic start and Martinez scuffling out of the gate, the Phillies appear poised to move to 3-2 on their seven-game road trip, but will they get it done?

Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds for the second game of this four-game set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.

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Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds

Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Cardinals odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
Yankees-1.5 (+125)-132O 9 (-110)
Phillies+1.5 (-148)+114U 9 (-110)

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Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction

Playing the under worked so well yesterday that we are going to go back to the well with the under again tonight.

Last night, Zack Wheeler and Adam Wainwright both pitched into the ninth inning, allowing a combined three runs on seven hits while striking out 17 batters. There’s little reason to believe that things will drastically change in the second game of this series.

Zach Eflin get the ball for Philadelphia, while RHP Carlos Martinez takes the mound for St. Louis.

Eflin has been a reliable arm for Philly this season, boasting a 2.77 ERA, pitching deep into games (6.2 innings pitched per start), and showing great control (just two walks allowed in 26 innings). Martinez’s numbers don’t jump off the page like Eflin’s, but he does enter off his longest outing of the season — a six-inning effort in which he allowed just four hits and one run in a 1-0 loss to the Nationals.

No Support for Martinez

The Cardinals’ lineup seems to treat Martinez like the Mets do Jacob deGrom, giving him horrific run support.

In his four starts this season, St. Louis has scored eight total runs, plating two or less in three of those games. The Cardinals have backed the righty with just three total runs in his last two starts against the Phillies, one of which was earlier this season against Eflin.

It’s a big reason why three of Martinez’s four career starts against Philadelphia have failed to go over tonight’s posted total.

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Before this season, Martinez pitched very well against Philly, allowing just five earned runs in 20 innings pitched (2.25 ERA), while striking out 20 batters. His two career home starts against Philadelphia produced eight combined runs or less, as Martinez gave up just three runs over 14 innings (1.93 ERA). He also fanned  a combined 16 hitters in those games. Home success has followed the Cardinals’ starter throughout his career, with an improved 3.49 ERA on his own bump, against a 3.65 ERA on the road.

Martinez has also had a lot of success against current Phillies. Despite the loss earlier this season, he has held these Phillies to a 20-for-86 lifetime batting average with 26 strikeouts. He has held J.T. Realmuto to just 2-for-11 (.182) with five punch outs. With that poor history and Andrew Knapp usually catching Eflin, we could see the Phils’ everyday catcher get a day off here, further weakening this often punchless offense.

Eflin Goes Deep

For Eflin, much like with Wheeler, his greatest weapon for an under play may be his ability to consistently pitch deep into games, minimizing the effect the Phillies’ bullpen can have. The Phils’ right-hander has lasted six or more innings in six straight starts dating back to last season. He hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any of his last 10 starts, giving up just 23 runs across 63 innings in that stretch, good for a 3.29 ERA.

Eflin also allowed just two runs in each of his two career starts against the Cardinals, including the Phils’ 9-2 win earlier this season. Current Cards have gone just 13-for-56 (.232) against Eflin in their careers. Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong, Paul Goldschmidt, and Yadier Molina, the heart of the St. Louis order, are just 5-for-29 (.172) and have failed to register an extra-base hit.

If he continues to take away the meat of what is already the league’s ninth-worst team in terms of batting average, the Cards are likely to struggle to score.

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Phillies vs.  Cardinals Betting Pick

Six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these two clubs have produced eight or fewer total runs, including just five combined in the most recent two meetings this season. When the Phils and Cards have met recently in St. Louis, four of the last five stayed under the total.

St. Louis has now played just one of their last five home games over the number, as well as one of their last five against the National League East. Expect another low-scoring affair between these two up-and-down teams tonight.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Pick: UNDER 

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