Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 20, 2021)
The Marlins and Phillies will play the rubber match of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park tonight when Vince Velasquez (1-0, 3.68 ERA) squares off against Sandy Alcantara (1-3, 4.06 ERA). Velasquez has been a pleasant surprise for the Phillies since joining the rotation, compiling a 2.84 ERA in five starts, while allowing just one run each of his last three times out.
Let’s take a look at the Marlins vs. Phillies betting odds and make some betting picks for the final game of a three-game set.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds (May 20, 2021)
Here is a look at the current Marlins vs. Phillies odds for this May 19, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+125) | -132 | O 9 (-110) |
| Phillies | +1.5 (-148) | +114 | U 9 (-110) |
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Marlins vs. Phillies Pick
This game is oddly similar to the extra value we said we saw in the under for last night’s game. All the late runs on Tuesday masked what was a dead-red under in Game 1 of this series and probably kept yesterday’s total from being set at 7.
Now, after a 3-1 affair last night, tonight’s total on a humid night in Philadelphia might be a little lower than it should be, giving us a generous total of eight at which to aim.
Playing over eight runs in a Marlins game this season, or MLB in general, is a tough ask. They have played just 13 of 42 games to more than eight runs, with another six landing on exactly eight runs. However, after allowing one run or less this season, the Marlins have only played three of the next nine games to less than eight runs. Along a similar vein, the Phils have played just two of nine games under eight runs after scoring one or less previously this season.
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Velasquez Looks to Keep It Rolling
Velasquez has been a nice surprise since stepping in when LHP Matt Moore entered COVID-19 protocols. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his five starts to date, yet somehow three of those starts still produced at least eight total runs.
His history against the Marlins lends to the idea of runs tonight. His last six starts against them produced at least eight total runs, with the righty allowing four or more himself in each of the last five of those. Those six outings also echoed another sentiment we want to explore in this one. Velasquez failed to top five innings pitched in any of those games and has only done so once this season and twice in his last 10 starts overall. That likely means an evening chock full of the erratic Phillies bullpen. Given their up and down performance and some warm weather in the Philly area, we could be in line for a “hittin’ season” kind of night.
On a related note, the long ball has haunted Velasquez throughout his career. He has allowed at least one home run in each of his starts this season, giving up seven in just 25 1/3 innings pitched. He also allowed at least one round-tripper in six of his last seven starts against Miami. The Marlins hit seven over the wall in 27 1/3 innings in that span.
Current Marlins are a stellar 28-for-84 (.333) off the right-hander with five home runs, including Brian Anderson, Jesus Aguilar, and Miguel Rojas, who have combined to go 15-for-39 (.385) with four of those homers.
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Alcantara Struggling
Velasquez will be opposed by Alcantara, who has seen six of his last seven starts reach at least eight total runs. The righty has received quality run support this season, with Miami scoring an average of 5.3 runs per game in his nine starts. Alcantara has allowed a home run in each of his last five starts this season and each of his last three against the Phillies.
The right-hander has struggled in his last three starts (6.28 ERA), as well as away from home (6.86 ERA) this season. It’s no surprise then that his last three starts averaged 10 total runs per outing, while none of his road starts have stayed under, averaging 9.8 total runs per game. It is unlikely to improve a ton today, as current Phillies have gone 26-for-85 (.306) off the big righty.
Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction
Keep in mind, before this season, six of the last seven games between these two clubs reached at least eight runs, with one of these two hurlers starting three of those games. After a loss this season, Philadelphia’s total combined runs spike to nearly nine per game, while the Marlins have played four of their last five games over after a win.
Philly has played four of their last five games over when the total is set between 7 and 8.5. Look for the Phils to move to six of the last seven over the total as a home favorite after tonight.
Our Pick: Mia/Phi OVER 8
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