Saints vs. Eagles Odds, Picks, Prediction (NFL Week 11)

The Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) host the New Orleans Saints (5-4) Sunday afternoon with the Eagles still in search of their first win at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Off a surprising performance in which they dropped 30 points on the road against a stout Denver defense, the Eagles will now try to jump back into a wide open NFC playoff picture by handing the suddenly struggling Saints a third straight loss.

Let’s jump into our Saints vs. Eagles prediction for this NFL Week 11 matchup, including a look at the odds, betting trends, and our ATS pick.

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Saints vs. Eagles Odds

Here’s a look at the current Saints vs. Eagles odds via DraftKings Sportsbook:

The Eagles opened as small 1.5-point favorites at home, a line which has held fairly true since. The Saints have seen a slight edge in percentage of bets and percentage of handle thus far, but it has not been enough for oddsmakers to move the line closer to a pick ’em. Despite nearly 60 percent of the bets and 70 percent of the money coming in on the over here, the total has remained steady or dipped to as low as 43 points at some books.

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Saints vs. Eagles Pick

The Eagles come in with some momentum, but we’re not so sure the right side is favored in this one.

With a first-year head coach and young quarterback, it’s impossible not to wonder if there is something to the fact that the Eagles have yet to win back-to-back games this season. After each of this team’s first three wins, all of which came on the road, they returned home only to lose their next outing. In fact, they would be 0-3 ATS in those next games, too, if it wasn’t for a backdoor cover against Tampa Bay.

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Still, the line isn’t even of consequence for us here if Philadelphia cannot win the game outright, and we are not sure they can.

Besides so far being unable to win at home and failing to string multiple wins together thus far, Nick Sirianni’s Eagles have also failed to defeat a team with a head coach that has at least three full seasons of experience to his name. The Eagles beat first-year head coaches Arthur Smith and Dan Campbell, Matt Rhule (second season), and Vic Fangio (third season). When facing coaches like Andy Reid, Mike McCarthy, Kyle Shanahan, and Bruce Arians, the Eagles failed to get any closer than six points in their losses. Now, they are facing a Saints bunch led by Sean Payton who has been with his team the second longest of any head coach in the league, behind only Bill Belichick with the Patriots.

ATS Trends to Know

From 2017 through 2020, Sean Payton has gone 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS against first-time or interim head coaches, including a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS run over the previous two seasons. He did lose in this role two weeks ago against Smith’s Falcons, but that’s digestible given the Saints previous game, an emotional win over Tampa Bay in which New Orleans lost Jameis Winston for the season. Do the math. Payton has not lost multiple games to a young head coach in years now.

Do you truly believe the Eagles have the coach and personnel to be the ones to end that run?

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Besides a vast edge regarding experience, Payton has also excelled with the Saints in several other key areas over the years.

• His Saints have gone 39-24 ATS as underdogs and 52-30 ATS off a SU loss. In fact, New Orleans is 4-0 ATS and 3-0 ATS, respectively, in those two areas thus far this season.
• Furthermore, Payton’s Saints, who lost 24-21 on this field last season, entered 2021 at 58-40 ATS when playing with revenge.
• New Orleans has also gone 86-67 ATS in non-division games under Payton, including a 4-2 ATS mark this year.

Despite sitting just ½ game back of the final playoff spot in the NFC, it’s hard to imagine Philadelphia viewing itself as a postseason contender, even with one of the easier remaining schedules. They are still in 11th place in the conference with the NFC’s fourth lowest strength of victory ranking.

Meanwhile, New Orleans holds the NFC’s No. 6 seed, just a game behind Tampa Bay for the NFC South lead with the tiebreaker in its pocket. Win here and they apply pressure to the Bucs who play Monday night. Lose, however, and they risk sliding to a tie for last in the division and potentially joining a group of teams in the standings that dive as deep as No. 10 in the conference. There’s a reason the Saints made the playoffs the last four seasons and so many before that under Payton. They tend to win games like this where the swing between a win and a loss is so dramatic.

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Finally, the Saints are merciless as road underdogs. They have covered 24 of their last 32 games as road underdogs, including an 8-1 ATS run in that role since the start of 2018. They are generally excellent on the road overall, covering 21 of their last 25 Sunday road games and rattling off nine covers in their last 11 road games against teams with sub .500 home records.

Saints vs. Eagles Prediction

With Buffalo and Dallas on deck next for New Orleans, this game is an absolute must-win. We discussed Philadelphia’s inability to rattle off multiple wins so far under Sirianni, but the Eagles are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after a cover, and 1-4 ATS in their last five efforts following a SU win by more than 14 points.

Look for New Orleans to extend a run of 10 straight covers following an ATS win against an opponent entering play off a double-digit win.

Our Pick: New Orleans +2 (FanDuel Sportsbook -110)

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