The Dallas Cowboys are losers of three straight games, having fallen to the behemoth known as the New York Jets last night.
So the NFC East winner could be a 9-7 football team come December, and this Sunday’s prime time game down in Jerry World is actually a crucial matchup of 3-3 squads that aren’t as good as we thought they were gonna be this season.
Doug Pederson, then, decided to give Dallas some bulletin board material when he went on Angelo Cataldi’s show and basically guaranteed a win:
Sports Betting Updates
It will be high-stakes Big Ten football under the lights on a chilly autumn night when Penn State travels to Iowa this weekend for a critical showdown between two of the nation’s Top 25 teams.
This isn’t the first time the Nittany Lions have hit the road to face the Hawkeyes with an undefeated record on the line.
Let’s rewind it back to 2008 when then No. 3 Penn State rolled into Iowa City in early November with an unblemished 9-0 record.
A week after securing a key road victory over No. 10 Ohio State, the Nittany Lions took a 23-14 lead into the fourth quarter before Iowa found the endzone shrink the deficit to two.
Then, they engineered a methodical 15-play drive that ended with this dagger:
.@HawkeyeFootball is no stranger to sending a highly ranked Penn State home with an "L."
Daniel Murray's 2008 game-winning FG is one of several examples. pic.twitter.com/dLGgVmNaIt
— Iowa On BTN (@IowaOnBTN) October 7, 2019
That kick not only ended Penn State’s undefeated run but also its national title dreams that season.
While the current expectations may not be quite as high for this year’s team, a dominant 5-0 start in which James Franklin’s squad has obliterated the opposition by a combined 235-37 margin has Penn State into the AP and Coaches Poll Top 10 and thinking big.
Meanwhile, No. 17 Iowa will look to rebound after its offense committed more turnovers (four) than it scored points (three) in a sloppy loss at Michigan last Saturday.
Will the Nittany Lions stay perfect (and cover the spread) ahead of their “White Out” game against rival Michigan next week, or will Iowa once again spoil Penn State’s party? Let’s get into it with our Penn State vs. Iowa betting preview.
How to Bet on Penn State vs. Iowa
At a very young age, my grandfather sat me down on his lap, looked me straight in the eye and said, “Kid, just remember–it’s not what you bet, it’s where you bet.”
Actually, that didn’t happen. But it’s great advice.
Among the bet boosts for Penn State-Iowa are four same-game parlay options:
- Iowa +3.5 and under 41.5 points (+250)
- Penn State -3.5 and under 41.5 (+275)
- Penn State -3.5 and over 41.5 points (+250)
- Iowa +3.5 and over 41.5 points (+270)
FOX Bet also has Colin Cowherd’s Marquee 3 Super Boost, a three-leg parlay on Notre Dame (-10), Iowa (+3.5), and LSU (-13) has been boosted from +600 to +800.
For those of you in New Jersey, check out our comprehensive NJ online sports betting page that’s loaded with sportsbook reviews, generous welcome offers, and the best sign-up bonuses.
How to Watch Penn State vs. Iowa
- Date: Saturday, October 12
- Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
- Location: Kinnick Stadium Stadium (Iowa City, IA)
- Network: ABC
- Announcers: Sean McDonough (play-by-play), Todd Blackledge (analyst), Holly Rowe (sideline)
Penn State vs. Iowa Weather
While it’s always a good idea to check the weather before locking in a bet, it isn’t expected to be a factor in Iowa City on Saturday night with temperatures hovering in the upper 40s under mostly clear skies.
Penn State vs. Iowa Odds
Here are the current Penn State-Iowa betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 12:00 p.m. Friday afternoon:
|Penn State||-3 (-118)||-175||O 42.5 (-110)|
|Iowa||+3 (+100)||+150||U 42.5 (-110)|
|Penn State||-3.5 (-103)||-182||O 42.5 (-110)|
|Iowa||+3.5 (-120)||+148||U 42.5 (-110)|
|Penn State||-3 (-115)||-165||O 42.5 (-105)|
|Iowa||+3 (-105)||+140||U 42.5 (-115)|
Let’s see how the implied probability of FOX Bet’s moneyline odds stack up against ESPN’s FPI model.
Projection models sometimes skew data and aren’t always accurate predictors of an event’s outcome, but it’s worth a look at how the implied probability of sportsbook odds compare to a second source in order to see if there’s any betting value on the board.
ESPN’s FPI model gives Penn State a 67.2% win probability against Iowa, while the implied probability of the -175 moneyline price on Penn State at FOX Bet carries a 63.6% win probability.
In relation to Penn State’s FPI win probability, there’s some slight betting value on a Penn State outright win.
As for Iowa, there’s no value on the Hawkeyes at +150 moneyline odds when stacked against FPI.
Betting Preview: What You Need to Know
Penn State’s offense has lit up the scoreboard this season, but the defense has also flexed some serious muscle throughout its 5-0 start.
Penn State leads the nation with 25 sacks and has the country’s No. 2 scoring defense and No. 3 rushing defense. That doesn’t bode well for an Iowa offense that struggled to run the football and allowed eight sacks last week in a 10-3 loss at Michigan, though not every one of those sacks was on the line:
Iowa tries to run PA off their couple of ISO runs (who saw that coming) and with a mixture of great coverage downfield and Stanely holding onto the ball for an absurdly long period of time, Michigan gets the sack. pic.twitter.com/yljERhKKkL
— Michigan Football Breakdowns (@uofmcoachesroom) October 10, 2019
Despite its overall poor performance a week ago, the Iowa offensive line remains a talented group that is bookended by solid tackles Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs. Those two will need to hold up against defensive lineman Yetur Gross-Matos and Shaka Toney, who have combined for 10.5 sacks, in order to give quarterback Nate Stanley a shot.
Stanley was uncharacteristically sloppy last week, throwing three interceptions after starting the season with eight touchdowns passes and no picks.
With the Nittany Lions effectively eliminating opposing run games on a weekly basis, it will likely be on Stanley to move the Iowa offense with a quartet of receivers that have each registered at least 12 catches and 190 yards through five games.
Penn State has the country’s No. 13 scoring offense at 39 points per game and has effectively moved the ball on the ground and through the air at times this season, frequently hitting explosive plays.
Still, they continue to struggle on third down.
Of particular concern was the struggles of the Nittany Lions’ offensive line against Pitt and the unit’s struggles after the opening quarter last week against Purdue.
The Hawkeyes’ defensive front, led by defensive end A.J. Epenesa (two sacks), is one of the nation’s elite units against the run. How Penn State’s offensive line handles the challenge of dealing with a strong Iowa front in a hostile environment will go a long way in determining which team emerges with a key conference win on Saturday night.
Penn State vs. Iowa Betting Trends
Why Backing Penn State is a Good Bet
Big Ten Road Favorites with Short Lines Have Cashed
When two ranked Big Ten teams go head-to-head, road favorites of four points or less are 10-4-2 ATS.
When two conference opponents ranked between No. 10 and No. 25 play, the road favorite is 24-16-2 ATS. Specifically, Big Ten teams are 4-1-1 ATS in this situation when favored by four points or less.
Just Win, Baby—But Not by Too Much
Big Ten road favorites in conference games that are coming off a win of 30 points or less are 89-62-1 ATS.
Penn State is 13-4 ATS under James Franklin in games that begin after 7 p.m. (though only 4-4 ATS on the road).
Why Backing Iowa is a Good Bet
Penn State is 0-4-1 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less. In fact, this is pretty crazy, but Penn State is only 1-9-2 ATS under Franklin in road games where they are either favored by six points or less or an underdog.
Penn State is 4-13 ATS on the road against Top 25 and 1-5 ATS under James Franklin.
Big Ten road teams favored between 3-4 points are only 3-10 ATS in night games.
Iowa is 9-6-1 ATS as a home underdog in conference games.
Iowa is 7-3-1 ATS as an underdog in night games.
A Word on the Total
Penn State has been lighting up the scoreboard this season, but its offense stalled after a hot start against Purdue last week. Meanwhile, Iowa’s offense was a hot mess as week ago in Ann Arbor. The Hawkeyes couldn’t get anything going on the ground and quarterback was sacked eight times in between his three interceptions. That helps explain why the game total currently sits at only 42.5 points.
That said, I wouldn’t be too concerned with how each offense played a week ago. Consider the following trends:
- The over is 90-75-1 in Big Ten games when both teams went under in its previous games and 10-6 when the total is set between 40-43 points.
- The over is also 32-20 when two Big Ten teams went under by 10 or more points in its previous games.
- Finally, the over is 19-13-1 when the total closes between 41-42 points in Big Ten conference games, and it’s 63-45-2 in Big Ten conference games at night.
Penn State vs. Iowa Prediction
It’s time to make a Penn State vs. Iowa prediction.
I’ve had a decent feel for Penn State sides so far this season, going 3-1-1 ATS, but that one loss was a huge swing and a miss when I backed Maryland as a primetime home dog. While that game gives me some hesitation in going against Penn State against Iowa, I expect a different outcome this time around.
Ultimately, while I believe Penn State probably gets the nod on a neutral field, Iowa’s home-field advantage looms large in this game.
James Franklin hasn’t been able to cover on the road at Penn State as a short favorite or as an underdog, and I’m having a hard time overlooking his ATS road struggles against Top 25 teams.
I consider this one a toss up, but given that, I’ll grab the points with the home team.
Prediction: Iowa (+3.5) over Penn State
A season ago, the Flyers were arguably the worst special teams squad in the NHL.
The penalty kill was historically awful before having a good finish to earn a very small modicum of respectability. The power play was incredibly disappointing, especially with a cast of characters with a history of being beasts with the man advantage. It was something that absolutely had to get better if the Flyers were going to improve.
Well, through two games, that’s exactly what we have. Vast improvement.
The Flyers scored two power play goals and killed off five penalties – including a full two-minute, two-man shorthanded situation – en route to beating the New Jersey Devils 4-0.
Carter Hart made 25 saves to record his first NHL shutout, becoming the youngest Flyers goalie to ever blank an opponent (the old record was held by Dominic Roussel).
Head Coach Alain Vigneault made a point to say that specialty teams would be a focus of his teams practices as they often swing outcomes of games.
So far, it’s working.
Let’s break it down:
Last night’s Sixers/Guangzhou exhibition game was played under the shadow of rising tensions between the NBA and Chinese government, a rift originating from a Daryl Morey tweet expressing support for the democratic movement in Hong Kong.
The ensuing fallout is affecting business deals in China, where NBA and G League exhibition games have since been canceled. And last night’s matchup at the Wells Fargo Center seemed rather straightforward and innocuous, before this happened:
Tonight at 11: Two fans got kicked out of the @sixers game during the preseason match against the Lions from China. The Philly couple was holding ‘Free Hong Kong’ signs and then the man started yelling ‘Free Hong Kong’ @WellsFargoCtr. Hear from him tonight @NBCPhiladelphia
— Denise Nakano (@DeniseNakanoTV) October 9, 2019
Here are a couple of tweets from one of the fans in question:
Another week of football is here in the great state of Pennsylvania is set to get underway this weekend. Both the Eagles and Steelers will look to build momentum off of their Week 4 victories, while Penn State and Pitt look to keep their winning streaks alive. Let’s see what FanDuel Sportsbook PA thinks of the these teams.
FanDuel Sportsbook PA Weekend Promo
New users at FanDuel Sportsbook can get a $500 risk-free bet .
FanDuel is also offering Close Loss Insurance on Week 5 NFL games. Moneyline bets will be refunded up to $50 if your chosen team loses by 6 points or less.
Eagles vs Jets Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Spread: Eagles (-14.5)
Moneyline: Eagles (-770), Jets (+540)
14.5 favorites for the Eagles heading into Sunday’s contest against the winless New York Jets who are coming off of their bye week. The Jets will still be without Sam Darnold at QB as he recovers from mono, so they’re rolling with Luke Falk again this week who amongst healthy Quarterbacks, ranks second to last in QBR in the NFL (Cam Newton is last, but played with a Lisfranc injury. Kirk Cousins is last amongst healthy QB’s).
The 2-2 Eagles are looking to build off of their entertaining Week 4 victory over the Green Bay Packers last Thursday night. It’s been a bit of a rocky season for the Eagles so far, especially considering their injuries. As of Thursday, Wide Receiver DeSean Jackson (Abdomen), defensive tackle Tim Jernigan (Foot), Avante Maddox (Neck, Concussion), and Ronald Darby (Hamstring) all were DNP for Thursday.
The 0-4 Jets, on the other hand, have looked like an awful football team that has also been dealing with injuries. As of thursday, linebacker C.J. Mosley did not practice (Groin), along with guard Kelechi Osemele (Shoulder/Knee). First-round pick Quinnen Williams has been limited in practice with an ankle injury as well.
With the point spread being at 43.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, the under looks like a good bet here at -110 when you take into consideration the Jets offense. The Jets rank dead last in the NFL in total offense and second-to-last in scoring offense, amassing only 33 points in four games.
It’s hard to see the Jets going into the Linc all banged up and covering this 13.5 point spread let alone winning the game outright.
Steelers vs Ravens
Spread: Ravens (-3)
Moneyline: Ravens (-175), Steelers (+150)
It’s going to be another classic rivalry showdown when the Steelers and Ravens meet up on Sunday at Heinz Field.
The 1-3 Steelers got off the schneid on Monday night after taking down the Bengals 27-3 while the 2-2 Ravens took a tough loss at home to the Cleveland Browns last Sunday.
Just like most NFL teams, the Steelers have their share of injuries to manage through. As of Thursday, starting RB James Conner (Ankle), star WR Juju Smith-Schuster (Toe), and starting TE Vance McDonald (Shoulder), were all DNP’s. The Steelers are already without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger for the season after having elbow surgery so there is a chance that the Steelers will be without their #1 options at QB, RB, WR, and TE for Sunday.
Surprisingly, the Ravens come into this one pretty healthy. Only CB Jimmy Smith and Center Matt Skura were DNP’s for Thursday.
The 2-2 Ravens bring their #1 ranked total offense, #1 ranked rushing offense and #2 scoring offense to Heinz Field which should fare well against a Steelers defense that ranks about middle of the pack in most defensive categories. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers offensive ranks are near the bottom of the league in most categories while the Ravens defense is also nothing to write home about, other than their 9th ranked rushing defense.
If Pittsburgh is without Conner and Smith-Schuster for Sunday’s game, Baltimore -3 at FanDuel Sportsbook PA looks like a steal.
Penn State vs Purdue
Spread: Penn State (-28.5)
Moneyline: Penn State (-5000), Purdue (+1500)
Penn State looks to build off of their 4-0 start after obliterating Maryland last Friday night 59-0 and it looks like they’ll likely enter Saturday night 5-0 after this matchup against a Purdue team that will be without many key offensive pieces.
The Boilermakers will be without starting QB Elijah Sindelar after he broke his clavicle. Star receiver Rondale Moore will be missing this one with an injury, and starting receiver Jared Sparks will be absent in this one as well.
When you look at the statistics, Penn State ranks extremely well across the FBS. Now, you can say that it’s because they’ve played inferior opponents, but the Nittany Lions are still putting up impressive numbers. They come into this one ranked 14th out of 130 in total offense, 16th in passing offense, and 5th in scoring offense. While that is impressive, the thing that might be more impressive is their defense. They rank 14th in total defense, 7th in rushing defense, and second in scoring defense.
This is one of the rare games to take place in two legal sports betting states– Pennsylvania and Indiana. Those of you in Indiana can bet with DraftKings Sportsbook IN. And obviously those of you in PA can get with FanDuel Sportsbook.
I don’t think Purdue stands a chance in this one, even if it was played at Purdue. Penn State -28.5 looks to be the play here if you’re placing money on it.
Pitt vs Duke
Spread: Duke (-5)
Money Line: Duke (-200), Pitt (+163)
When looking at the ranks of each team and their numbers, this one looks pretty evenly matched on paper, and both teams have three wins, so looking at a spread of five is pretty surprising.
Both teams are only separated by six spots when it comes to scoring offense and while Duke is ranked 47th in rushing offense, Pitt ranks 17th in rushing defense and while Pitt ranks 36 in passing offense, Duke ranks 38 in passing defense, so both categories that one team has an advantage in over the other offensively, is automatically canceled out by the opposition’s defensive rank. The only real advantage one team has over another is scoring offense, where Duke ranks 46 and Pitt ranks 100.
It’s tough to bet against Pitt +5 here considering both teams are so evenly matched and I get that the game is at Duke but for them being a touchdown favorite here is surprising.
Not all Thursday Night Football matchups are created equal. Let’s get into it in our Rams-Seahawks betting preview.
After enduring the Tennessee at Jacksonville slop fest two weeks ago, we were treated last week to a classic shootout between the Eagles and Packers, a game that wasn’t decided until the final moment. Undoubtedly, the result of that one pleased bettors who backed the local team and the over at PA online sportsbooks.
This week, we get another marquee matchup when the Rams travel north for an important early-season NFC West showdown with the Seahawks.
Both teams enter with identical 3-1 records. The winner will have a chance to close the weekend atop the NFC West standings, depending on the outcome of Monday night’s 49ers-Browns game, while the loser will fall two games back in the division’s loss column when the curtain falls tonight.
Gather ‘round, friends. For this is a most delightful autumnal treat bequeathed upon us by the scheduling gods!
Will it be Seattle that avoids taking a second straight “L” at CenturyLink Field, or will Los Angeles rebound after a shocking loss to Tampa Bay last week?
Let’s get into it with our Rams vs. Seahawks betting preview.
How to Bet on Rams-Seahawks
When the Phillies finally announce their decision on Gabe Kapler (most likely at 1:05 p.m. on Sunday afternoon in the most Phillies way possible) it could mean the end of a grand experiment. Kapler, the GM hand-picked new age manager who was destined to lead a squad of talented athletes to the promised land on the back of analytic strength and old-school managerial hunches, could be out of a job if Phillies Managing Partner and Principal Owner John Middleton tires of yet another year of deluded expectations and pulls the plug on the controversial manager.
If he does relieve Kapler of his duties he then should take a long, hard look at his front office and yank the cord out of that life-support system as well.
If Kapler is canned there is no way Phillies President Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak should expect to keep their jobs either.