The Rams and Saints will meet on Sunday afternoon in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome with a trip to Super Bowl 53 on the line. If the rematch possesses the intensity of the first meeting between the two teams, a 45-35 Saints win back in November, then we should be in for quite a game. That leads us to perhaps the most important question ahead of what’s expected to be another high-scoring shootout between two of the league’s best offenses–will the game play out much the same as it did the first time, or are we in store for a different outcome? Let’s get into it.

FanDuel: Saints (-3.5), Over/Under 56

What to know about the Saints

Most bettors will look to the Saints’ excellent playoff history at home under head coach Sean Payton, where they are 6-0 straight-up. Undoubtedly, that’s an impressive stat to rely on, but it’s worth noting the Saints are only 2-4 against the spread in those games, including last week’s ATS loss to the Eagles as an 8-point favorite.

New Orleans has also excelled at home over the last two seasons, compiling a daunting 16-2 record, but again, they are only 9-9 ATS in those games. The lesson here? The Saints are tough to beat in the dome, but getting a win against the number isn’t exactly a Herculean task. Still, the importance of home-field advantage in recent championship game history can’t be understated. Home teams are 10-0 SU in the championship round over the last five seasons. The last time an NFC team won on the road in this spot came in 2012 when the 49ers knocked off the Falcons in Atlanta.

It’s been a bit of rollercoaster for bettors backing the Saints this season. They are a profitable 10-7 ATS, but the path has been a streaky one. New Orleans began the season with back-to-back ATS losses, but then ripped of nine-straight covers before finishing the season 1-5 ATS over its final six games. The Saints are regarded by many as the favorite to lift the Lombardi Trophy next month, but is their lackluster play and inability to cover spreads dating back to December an indicator they are simply not the same squad that was demolishing the opposition with ease earlier this season? For those concerned about their recent lack of success ATS, it’s worth noting the Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine tries when entering having failed to cover in consecutive games. In fact, only twice since the 2015 season have Payton teams failed to cover in three-straight contests.

One angle that bettors are sure to look at is the matchup between Drew Brees and Jared Goff. Brees inspires more confidence and with reason. He is 13-3 ATS throughout his career and 10-1 ATS when facing opponents averaging at least 30 points per game, including the win over the Rams earlier this season. For those wondering, Goff is 1-3-1 ATS against teams averaging at least 30 points per game.

While there’s a lot to like about the Saints in this matchup, there are, however, at least some concerns. Despite scoring 30.8 points per game this season, the Saints have averaged just a shade over 24 points per contest over their last eight games. In fact, the offense hasn’t looked particularly crisp dating back to the 48-7 thrashing of the Eagles in November. That includes last week’s rematch in which they managed only 20 points against the Eagles’ decimated defense. In fact, Brees has only four touchdowns to three interceptions in four starts since the beginning of December. Some of those offensive struggles have been masked by a defense that is allowing only 16.9 points per game over its last eight contests. That defense won the game a week ago, but New Orleans is going to need more firepower to keep pace with the NFL’s No. 2 scoring offense.

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You can analyze trends and probabilities all you like. You can diagnose a match to within an inch of its life. But there are certain things you really can’t account for. Before shutting out an impotent Newcastle United on January 2, Manchester United hadn’t kept a clean sheet in the league in their prior seven matches. The Red Devils went to Wembley last weekend to take on Tottenham Hotspur. Goals aplenty, right? Yeah, no:

11 – David de Gea made 11 saves for Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur today; the most saves he’s made in a top-flight league match without conceding a goal. Unbeatable. #TOTMUN pic.twitter.com/r7xYnHzalv

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 13, 2019

World class players occasionally thwart the best of all laid plans. The blinder from de Gea cost me a winning week, but as usual, the best part about the past week is that it’s in the past. Looking for a rebound in Week 23, we’re going to ignore the early card and hone in on the weekend’s final three matches. Here come this week’s winners:

ARSENAL v. CHELSEA

The #PL head-to-head record between Arsenal and Chelsea is extremely close 👀 pic.twitter.com/KJmUNTYjFz

— SuperSport (@SuperSportTV) January 17, 2019

This time of year you start hearing a lot about “relegation six-pointers.” That’s when two clubs near the bottom of the table play each other; the winner gets the benefit of adding three points to their tally while depriving their fellow strugglers of a potential three points.

Neither Arsenal nor Chelsea is anywhere close to being relegated. But this match can fairly be called a “Champions League place six-pointer.” Chelsea is fourth in the table with 47 points, clutching onto the last Champions League place. Arsenal is tied with Manchester United on points for fifth (the Gunners have a slightly better goal difference) with 41 points.

Chelsea will naturally see this match as a chance to put Arsenal irretrievably behind. A Blues win would stretch their lead over Unai Emery’s men to nine points with nearly two-thirds of the season gone. Chelsea is on a nice run in league play, with five wins and a draw in their last seven. Meanwhile, Arsenal continue to waste time figuring out what to do with the expensive malcontent that Arsene Wenger stuck Emery with:

Unai Emery says he has not given thought to the possibility of Mesut Ozil leaving Arsenal and the midfielder could return against Chelsea.https://t.co/Q5c8Vr3Tc6

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) January 18, 2019

Arsenal is not favored at home for a reason. Two losses from three in league play, including the 5-1 humiliation at the hands of Liverpool, make the Gunners the wrong side of this tie. Take Chelsea to win at 5/4.

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