Game 6 = Game 7

Kyle - October 23, 2010

Oswalt_sliding_reuters
 
Oswalt and Phillies hoping to slide past Giants again tonight (source: Reuters)

The winner of tonight's Phillies-Giants game will win the series. Recent history backs that up. It is rare for a team to go on the road for the final two games in a seven game series with a 3-2 series lead and lose Game 6 and then come back and win Game 7.

The 1975 Reds did it in the World Series that year, the night after losing Game 6 in Boston on Carlton Fisk's dramatic walk-off HR. The only other time it has happened since then was the 2006 NLCS when the Cardinals lost Game 6 in Shea Stadium to the Mets and then came back and won Game 7.

And here are all of the examples of a team going home down 3-2 in the series and winning the final 2 games since 1975:

2007 ALCS – Red Sox

2004 NLCS – Cardinals

2002 WS – Angels

2001 WS – Diamondbacks

1996 NLCS – Braves

1991 WS – Twins

1987 WS – Twins

1987 NLCS – Cardinals

1986 WS – Mets

1986 ALCS – Red Sox

1985 WS – Royals

1982 WS – Cardinals

For whatever reason pulling off the losing Game 6, but winning Game 7 on road trick used to be much more common prior to 1965 or so. In recent history it's pretty rare. So in summary since 1975, there have been 13 occasions where a team who was down 3-2 in the series and playing at home won Game 6 to force a Game 7. And 12 out of those 13 times, they also won Game 7. So Game 6 is really the Game 7 in this series for both teams.

Jayson Stark gives more history of teams taking a 3-1 lead, then being forced to travel to win one of the final two games.  [ESPN.com]

• But here's where that picture begins to look slightly less scenic for the Giants: Twelve previous teams took that 3-1 lead in the LCS, with a chance to clinch the series in their home park in Game 5 — BUT knew they'd have to play Games 6 and 7 on the road if they didn't. And 25 percent of those teams (three of 12) forgot to win any of those last three games.

• Now let's move along to exactly where this series stands now: Six of those 12 teams leading 3-1 lost Game 5 at home and had to hit the road for the final two games, as the Giants do now. HALF of those teams (three of six) lost the series. (The teams that hung on: the 2005 Astros, 1998 Padres and 1997 Indians. The teams that didn't: the 2007 Indians, 1996 Cardinals, 1986 Angels.)

5 Comments

  • NickFromGermantown October 24, 2010 at 12:17 am

    Ryan Howard sucks so fucking much. I have been saying it for so long. Tonight was his crowning achievement of sucking.
    I really hope management can move him. But can they? Probably not. Ruben Amaro Jr. unnecessarily decided to rape the Phillies by signing him to the worst contract ever.

    Reply
  • Michael Williams October 24, 2010 at 1:45 pm

    Finally gotta say it now… The Giants are the better team!

    Reply
  • Jeff November 6, 2010 at 3:19 pm

    I just woke up…. were you right? Did the team that won game 6 win the series?
    Sheeeeeit.

    Reply
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