The winner of tonight's Phillies-Giants game will win the series. Recent history backs that up. It is rare for a team to go on the road for the final two games in a seven game series with a 3-2 series lead and lose Game 6 and then come back and win Game 7.
The 1975 Reds did it in the World Series that year, the night after losing Game 6 in Boston on Carlton Fisk's dramatic walk-off HR. The only other time it has happened since then was the 2006 NLCS when the Cardinals lost Game 6 in Shea Stadium to the Mets and then came back and won Game 7.
And here are all of the examples of a team going home down 3-2 in the series and winning the final 2 games since 1975:
2007 ALCS – Red Sox
2004 NLCS – Cardinals
2002 WS – Angels
2001 WS – Diamondbacks
1996 NLCS – Braves
1991 WS – Twins
1987 WS – Twins
1987 NLCS – Cardinals
1986 WS – Mets
1986 ALCS – Red Sox
1985 WS – Royals
1982 WS – Cardinals
For whatever reason pulling off the losing Game 6, but winning Game 7 on road trick used to be much more common prior to 1965 or so. In recent history it's pretty rare. So in summary since 1975, there have been 13 occasions where a team who was down 3-2 in the series and playing at home won Game 6 to force a Game 7. And 12 out of those 13 times, they also won Game 7. So Game 6 is really the Game 7 in this series for both teams.
Jayson Stark gives more history of teams taking a 3-1 lead, then being forced to travel to win one of the final two games. [ESPN.com]
• But here's where that picture begins to look slightly less scenic for the Giants: Twelve previous teams took that 3-1 lead in the LCS, with a chance to clinch the series in their home park in Game 5 — BUT knew they'd have to play Games 6 and 7 on the road if they didn't. And 25 percent of those teams (three of 12) forgot to win any of those last three games.
• Now let's move along to exactly where this series stands now: Six of those 12 teams leading 3-1 lost Game 5 at home and had to hit the road for the final two games, as the Giants do now. HALF of those teams (three of six) lost the series. (The teams that hung on: the 2005 Astros, 1998 Padres and 1997 Indians. The teams that didn't: the 2007 Indians, 1996 Cardinals, 1986 Angels.)