Stat Geeks are Real High on Dom Brown

There may very well be a severe lack of sports news over the next few days, what with the Flyers on a break, the Eagles still searching for a defensive coordinator, the Sixers being the Sixers (they won last night again- well on their way to a first round exit), and with there still being a few weeks until Aces and catchers. But there is this: The Bill James 2011 Handbook predicts big these from Dom Brown.

For those of you who don't know, James is a pioneer of sabermetrics- using statistics to scientifically analyze baseball devoid of any real human factors, including what kind of pressure a player is under, nagging injuries, and whether or not the fucking sun is in his eyes. But, generally speaking, it's the best method we have to analyze and predict baseball success.

Todd Zolecki outlined the predictions from James' handbook for the Phillies lineup:

I should have had Domonic Brown in the lineup based on their projections, but I wanted to keep him separate because, well, just look at these numbers. They project he will hit .288 with 33 doubles, 4 triples, 26 home runs, 94 RBIs, 84 runs scored and 28 stolen bases in 548 at-bats(.346/.505/.851). Those are some seriously huge numbers for a rookie. If that happens nobody will be worried about right field and Jayson Werth's departure anymore, but I've got to think those numbers are high. But if they end up accurate, I think everybody is going to be buying a copy of the handbook for their 2012 fantasy baseball leagues.



Read the rest here.


8 Responses

  1. That’d be awesome if Dom can do that. At this point I’d take 13HR and 50RBI in a part time role. That might also make him the 2nd most productive hitter on the team.

  2. Bill James is an idiot he predicts too optimistic for all young hitters that he crushes on. Last year he predicted Chris Davis from the Texans for 40+ HR’s.. which didn’t even come close to happening after he was sent to the minors within the first few months of the season.

  3. just hit better than .186 w/RISP and that would be better than Werth last year(in his so called best season).

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