LEE FOR LABOR DAY: The disturbance in the Gulf is expected to become Tropical Storm Lee within the next 24 hours, and tropical storm watches could be required for the Central Gulf Coast as early as tomorrow.
Steering currents are expected to collapse, meaning Lee should drift slowly and erratically just off the coast of Louisiana for 48 hours, or maybe even longer. This will bring a heavy rain threat to Southeast Louisiana, and coastal counties of Mississippi and Alabama. Flash flood watches are already up for some parishes in Louisiana, and the far southern part of Mississippi. The heavy rain could extend eastward into the Florida Panhandle as well, but that eastward extent will all depend on the intensity and structure of Lee.
MODEL MADNESS: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see that models are all over the road with the Gulf system. A number of them actually show Lee drifting toward the southwest, in the direction of the Texas Coast. Then, some move the system into South Texas, but others bring it back to the northeast, with the ECMWF moving it through Alabama at the end of next week.
Those northeasterly tracks have Lee veering from Texas and heading straight to New York before Tropical Depression Kristen forces him to halt directly above Philadelphia.
Lee is expected to drop 2.59 inches of rain, ravage 198 houses, skip over only 40, and hit two home runs.
Here are Lee's projected paths:
Oh my. Tricky.
H/T to reader Andy for providing me filler material during this slow, late-summer week