ESPN SABR guru Dan Szymborski Tweets his MLB playoff and final record projections based on the ZiPS projection system. I have literally no idea what that means, but I assume it’s based on a lot of numbers and math instead of, say, Ruben Amaro telling reporters that the Phillies just need another reliever and maybe a little luck.
Looks like they’ll need a lot of luck:
Besides that 3.5% chance of making the playoffs, I’d like to call out their 0.3% chance of winning the World Series with their $184 million payroll. Without looking at any numbers whatsoever, I’d be willing to guess that is the highest payroll ever for a team with such a small chance of making the playoffs on June 2. Fire Ruben?
