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The Sixers are currently 0-17. They probably won’t go 0-82. So, in between those marks, they’ve got to win at least one game. But when? According to simulations run by FiveThirtyEight, it’s probably sooner rather than later, but it could be much, much later.

To build the simulation, Neil Paine turned to betting-market-based team ratings — “which use the gambling lines from every game to derive each team’s ‘generic points favored’ (or the amount by which we’d expect the team to be favored against an average team).” After figuring that out for every game left on the Sixers schedule, they ran 1,000 simulations to determine where the losing streak will end. The result it in the graph above, but here are some numbers on it:

In our set of 1,000 simulations, Philadelphia’s losing streak has an average length of 20.7 games. The streak most commonly ends with a victory Wednesday night against the Minnesota Timberwolves, a game in which the Sixers have a relatively high (by their standards) 30.9 percent probability of winning. In 60 percent of simulations, the streak ends sometime in the team’s next three games (the last of which is on Saturday night), and 91 percent of simulations see it end before Christmas.

However, there is one dark simulation in which the Sixers lose 54 consecutive games before finally snapping their skid against the Orlando Magic on Feb. 22, 2015.

I thought they’d beat Boston, I was wrong. I thought they’d beat the Knicks, I was wrong. I think they’ll beat the Pistons on Saturday, but really, it’s all a crapshoot at this point.

The Sixers: America’s train wreck.