Fox Sports Cruelly Says the Phillies Have a Chance this Year

Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The 2015 Phillies season is going to be a bad one. It’s going to be a long one. It’s going to be a depressing one. But, what if it’s not? I mean, it 100% will be, but Fox Sports suggests that maybe it won’t be.

Just to illustrate how far we’ve fallen, Jeff Sullivan’s Fox Sports piece about teams outperforming expectations is titled “Every Single Team Has a Chance … Yes, Even the Phillies.” It burns. Sullivan used a bunch of methods to grab projections for every team, and then, he found the actual win totals for teams in history projected to win that many games. It’s fairly simple. And what false hope does he have to feed?

No one’s projected for a worse record than the Phillies. But, our sample includes 300 team-seasons. In eight of those, a team exceeded its projected win total by at least 16. That’s just about 3 percent. Another 9 percent have exceeded projected win totals by 11-15. We shouldn’t overstate these magnitudes; most of the time, teams still fall much closer to their projections. But optimism isn’t always balanced and rational. The key to optimism is legitimate hope, and there’s enough for even Phillies fans to grasp onto, if they so desire.

You know what? I don’t desire. This season is going to be long and bad and depressing (I think I said that already) and the last thing I need is any false sense of hope that if they just string like 15 wins or so together right after the All-Star break, they’ll be right back in it. Get outta here. And really, if you need any evidence that this is all smoke and mirrors, check how Sullivan closes his piece:

And if it can be said the Phillies have a chance, it can be said that everyone has a chance, because no one looks worse than the Phillies. Not the Braves, not the Twins, not the Diamondbacks, not anybody else. Jonathan Papelbon might be the most optimistic player in the Philadelphia clubhouse at the moment, but there’s at least some support, beyond it just being forgivable to have a sunny attitude in February.

Bullshit. Papelbon isn’t even the most optimistic player in the room when he’s the only player in the room.

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14 Responses

  1. Do you think Papelbon’s optimism may be more fueled by the thought of going to Toronto than it is by staying in Philadelphia?

      1. yeah, they love the eagles!!! EAGLES. they love the eagles more because the eagles won….no wait they didnt. well at least they made the play offs with their new cutting edge coaching style….oh wait that didnt happen either.

  2. Not with that big piece of fucking monkey shit KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK machine they dont.
    Fuck off.

  3. Paplebon is only being optimistic because his agent probably told him to quit acting like a raging asshole or you’ll never get out this hellhole. Suck it up and play nice until they find someone stupid enough to put up with your shit. Then you can resume being your normal douchebag self.

    Of course, that’ll only last until he gets booed by 11,000 screaming fans at CBP. He won’t be able to help himself.

  4. What a kick in the clam. Fox is openly mocking the Phillies now. Who’s next Saturday night live? Forbes magazine?

  5. If the Nationals, Dodgers and Cardinals planes all go down in fiery crashes flying back from Spring Training then yeah the NL is wide open.

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