Predicting the Sixers’ Season Using NBA 2K16

With the Sixers’ season kicking off tonight – possibly with only nine healthy players – I figured it was time to use one of the least reliable predictors of success to determine how (poorly) they’ll do this season: video game simulation.

Using the official rosters, as updated, I simulated the season from opening night through the draft lottery twice with the Sixers. Actually, three times. The first time I just wanted to make sure it would work, and Nerlens Noel broke his back, Sam Hinkie traded JaKarr Sampson and a second round pick for Robin Lopez, and Brett Brown got fired. I scratched that one. So, let’s see how the team ended up in those two, very scientific and accurate simulations.

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First Win

In simulation number one, the Sixers won tonight’s opener against the Boston Celtics and then dropped seven straight. In December, the Sixers won eight straight.

In sim number two, the Sixers started the season 0-2, won two straight, and then dropped a whole bunch by a lot of points.

Random Trades

For some totally unexplained reason, Hinkie traded Hollis Thompson straight-up for Marco Bellinelli in the first simulation. He was as quiet as a church-mouse in the second.

All-Star Break Record

all star break records

As you can see above, the team’s record at the All-Star Break wasn’t atrocious in either simulation. 20 wins before the break, topping their season total in either of Hinkie’s years in charge, is incredibly unlikely. 15-38, in the second sim, seems entirely more reasonable. In both simulations, Jahlil Okafor squeaked his way onto the All-Star team.

Final Record

  • Sim One: 28-54
    • 8-21 after the break
    • Finish tied with the Nets, and ahead of the Wizards, Nuggets, and Kings
    • Lakers finish with 11th-best lottery odds
  • Sim Two: 28-54, again
    • 13-16 after the break
    • Finish, again, tied with the Nets, this time also accompanied by the Knicks. The only team with worse records were the Hornets and Wizards.
    • Lakers finish with 13th-best lottery odds

In the NBA Finals, sim one sees the Thunder beating the Cavs in six, while sim two has the Bulls beating the Thunder in five.

End of Year Awards

This section is Okafor’s and Okafor’s alone. In both simulations, Big Jah walked away with Rookie of the Year. He also made the All-NBA third team and All-Rookie first team in the first sim, while somehow forcing his way onto the All-NBA first team in the second go around. Yeah, sure. Whatever.

He led the team in points per game at the end of both simulations (21.7/21.3), also putting up insane numbers in rebounds (11.6/12.1) and blocks (1.8 per game in each). Nerlens Noel’s points and rebounds per game (9.3/9.8 in sim one and 10.0/9.3 in sim two) leave a bit to be desired. Tony Wroten is second on the team in both sims with 13.6-ish points, if you take in the fact that Marco Bellinelli is not going to be a Sixer this year. No one on the team averaged more than five assist per game.

The Lottery

Isn’t this what it’s really all about? It worked out well in the front, and horribly in the back in both sims. Like a heavily-protected mullet.

  • Sim One: Sixers finish with 5th-best lottery odds
    • Sixers end up with the 5th pick but swap theirs with the Kings who jumped up and earned the second selection. The Lakers fall where they’re supposed to. The Heat send their 29th pick the Sixers’ way, and Hinkie swaps the Thunder’s 30th pick for the Warriors’ 27th.
      • Picks: 2, 11, 27, 29
  • Sim Two: Sixers finish with 3rd-best lottery odds
    • Sixers get jumped in the lottery and end up with the 5th pick again. This time, they swap it with the Kings’ third pick, as they hopped the order again. The Lakers land at number 13. The Heat’s 23rd pick lands in Hinkie’s pocket, as does OKC’s 26th.
      • Picks: 3, 13, 23, 26

None of those are #OneSixEleven. They also aren’t the ideal of #OneFourElevenSixteen. But splitting the difference, picks 3, 12, 25, and 27 can turn into something real.

So, What’s Going to Happen?

No idea. This whole season is a total crapshoot. It very much depends on the health of Brett Brown’s players. The over-unders for wins are floating in the 20-21 range. If I had to lay money down on an exact record, 28-54 sounds good to me (and I’ll take the word of two ridiculous simulations on that). Okafor winning the ROTY award would be nice but I don’t see it happening– when you consider there were some in the media who said they didn’t vote for Nerlens Noel last year because of the team’s record. As for All-NBA team selections? Joel Embiid leading the Sixers through the tunnel on robotic legs tonight is about as likely as any first team All-NBA nods.

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27 Responses

        1. Most chubby girls have big tits. Also big waists, big thighs, big hips, big arms, big calves. PASS. I would not buy her flowers, if you catch my drift…

  1. The Sixers will get their 1st win November 18th, against the Indiana Pacers.

    BOOK IT!

    1. He drops such great knowledge with his calls or sometimes he just falls asleep while waiting to get on the air. I don’t think he works much though

    2. Yeah whats up with that dude he brings nothing to the table but Yo Brother Glen,Brother Ray,Brother Ike,Brother Jody. Guy is annoying.

  2. Jim Adair is a high ranking Beoviian!! Please tread gently around him. His ship is large and his mission incomplete. Godspeed comrade Adair.

  3. So all star day on the fanatic includes ellis and Mayes (getting smoked by Mike and ike), Geoff Mosher (is he employed by 97.5 now?), Baldy (appears 2-3 times over the phone and works for nfl network), and shander (does he even have a time slot?)

    1. Not listening, but if you are, let us know how many times Shander has mentioned that there is no way Marcus Mariota is not the Eagles starting QB next season.

      That tool was still spinning ways Mariota winds up an Eagle as late as mid-August. Shander beat that Mariota deadh0rse worse than Missanelli, Sal Pal and Kyle Scott and that is saying something.

      1. Let me know when those losers on 97.5 + WIP stop doing 24/7/365 Eagles/bad receivers/Sam Bradford/Chip Kelly Talk.

        There was an awesome World Series game last night ,good Flyers game, Sixers start tonight,Phillies hire new GM,NBA begins.

        Lots to talk about dont really need non stop repetitive boring Eagles talk.

    1. HEY! KYLE WORKS 13 HOUR DAYS GETTING SHITTY POSTS UP AND EDITING JIM’S GARBAGE!!! THIS SITE IS #AGENDASETTING AND ALL THE LOCAL WRITERS AND REPORTERS COME HERE EACH DAY TO RIP OFF THE GREAT KYYYYYYYYYYLE $$$$$$$$$$$$COTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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