I’m not a fan of game previews, but it’s worth noting today that the Flyers start the playoffs tonight. They play the Red Wings, whom they trail by three points – with two games in-hand! – in the Wild Card standings. The Penguins lead both teams, with a total of 80 points. Looks like this:

Voila_Capture 2016-03-15_09-48-51_AM

The Hurricanes, Devils and Senators are all IN THE MIX, too, but they trail the Flyers and have played more games. It’s essentially down to three teams for two spots, and mostly between the Flyers and Red Wings for the final spot. The playoff chances* break down like this, using HockeyViz.com:

Voila_Capture 2016-03-15_10-54-26_AM

*Of course the Penguins’ chances are at 87%– just like that no-talent ass clown Sidney Crosby.

As you can see, the Penguins are a near-lock for one of the two Wild Card spots, and it’s basically a toss-up between the Flyers and Red Wings for the other one. A win tonight will go a long way in giving one team the edge over the other.

[UPDATE: I may have overstated the Penguins’ chances. Was basing it on probability, but not factoring in Malkin being out 6-8 weeks. Though I don’t think that hurts them as much as it sounds like it does.]


The Flyers have five games remaining, including tonight, against the Red Wings and Penguins– two against the Red Wings, three against the Penguins. They could use all the outright victories they can get, too. Their ROW – wins in regulation or overtime, the main tiebreaker – is 30, compared to 32 and 34 for the Red Wings and Penguins, respectively.

SportsClubsStats.com uses a slightly different calculation and puts the Flyers’ playoff chances at essentially 50%. But the fact remains: their game tonight against the Red Wings is huuuuuuuuuge. An outright win swings things massively in the Flyers’ favor, but if the Red Wings can get two points in any fashion – win, OT win, shootout win – their chances, given their better ROW, jump significantly. Look:

Flyers win

Voila_Capture 2016-03-15_10-32-53_AM

 

Flyers overtime win

Voila_Capture 2016-03-15_10-33-01_AM

 

Flyers shootout win

Voila_Capture 2016-03-15_10-33-10_AM

 

Red Wings win

Voila_Capture 2016-03-15_10-33-38_AM

 

Red Wings overtime win

Voila_Capture 2016-03-15_10-33-28_AM

 

Red Wings shootout win

Voila_Capture 2016-03-15_10-33-19_AM

Still, one thing not considered here is MOMENTUM. The Flyers have it. They’re playing their best hockey of the year, will soon get Jakub Voracek back (though I’m always wary when a top player returns), and they’re 7-2-1 in their last 10. The Red Wings are only 5-4-1. In terms of playoff chances, look at these two lines about to make a favorable convergence [Flyers– purple, Red Wings– green]:

Voila_Capture 2016-03-15_10-27-40_AM

Even over the last week those lines have converged [red and orange]:

Voila_Capture 2016-03-15_10-55-09_AM

In just a few weeks the Red Wings’ playoff chances have gone from roughly 90% to almost 50-50. The Flyers have jumped from 20% to 50%. A win tonight and these sticks cross in the most delightful way possible. Let’s cross the sticks.

Oh, and buy a shirt:

Voila_Capture 2016-03-01_02-14-36_PMVoila_Capture 2016-03-15_11-03-11_AM Voila_Capture 2016-03-15_11-03-57_AM

Charts: HockeyViz.com, SportsClubStats.com Related reading: BroadStreetHockey.com