The Flyers Are Playing a Massive Game Tonight

Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not a fan of game previews, but it’s worth noting today that the Flyers start the playoffs tonight. They play the Red Wings, whom they trail by three points – with two games in-hand! – in the Wild Card standings. The Penguins lead both teams, with a total of 80 points. Looks like this:

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The Hurricanes, Devils and Senators are all IN THE MIX, too, but they trail the Flyers and have played more games. It’s essentially down to three teams for two spots, and mostly between the Flyers and Red Wings for the final spot. The playoff chances* break down like this, using HockeyViz.com:

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*Of course the Penguins’ chances are at 87%– just like that no-talent ass clown Sidney Crosby.

As you can see, the Penguins are a near-lock for one of the two Wild Card spots, and it’s basically a toss-up between the Flyers and Red Wings for the other one. A win tonight will go a long way in giving one team the edge over the other.

[UPDATE: I may have overstated the Penguins’ chances. Was basing it on probability, but not factoring in Malkin being out 6-8 weeks. Though I don’t think that hurts them as much as it sounds like it does.]

The Flyers have five games remaining, including tonight, against the Red Wings and Penguins– two against the Red Wings, three against the Penguins. They could use all the outright victories they can get, too. Their ROW – wins in regulation or overtime, the main tiebreaker – is 30, compared to 32 and 34 for the Red Wings and Penguins, respectively.

SportsClubsStats.com uses a slightly different calculation and puts the Flyers’ playoff chances at essentially 50%. But the fact remains: their game tonight against the Red Wings is huuuuuuuuuge. An outright win swings things massively in the Flyers’ favor, but if the Red Wings can get two points in any fashion – win, OT win, shootout win – their chances, given their better ROW, jump significantly. Look:

Flyers win

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Flyers overtime win

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Flyers shootout win

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Red Wings win

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Red Wings overtime win

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Red Wings shootout win

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Still, one thing not considered here is MOMENTUM. The Flyers have it. They’re playing their best hockey of the year, will soon get Jakub Voracek back (though I’m always wary when a top player returns), and they’re 7-2-1 in their last 10. The Red Wings are only 5-4-1. In terms of playoff chances, look at these two lines about to make a favorable convergence [Flyers– purple, Red Wings– green]:

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Even over the last week those lines have converged [red and orange]:

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In just a few weeks the Red Wings’ playoff chances have gone from roughly 90% to almost 50-50. The Flyers have jumped from 20% to 50%. A win tonight and these sticks cross in the most delightful way possible. Let’s cross the sticks.

Oh, and buy a shirt:

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Charts: HockeyViz.com, SportsClubStats.com Related reading: BroadStreetHockey.com

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25 Responses

  1. He may be a ass clown but saying he doesn’t have talent is idiotic and shows the lack of “talent” you have for writing this article. You’d be the first in line to drain his kids if he were a flyer don’t lie Kyle Scott

  2. Every time I turn on these sports stations (94wip 97.5 the fanatic) it’s the same old tired Eagles talk that at this point makes me want to throw up.

    Contrary to popular belief, there are other things in sports to talk about besides the stinkin Eagles.

    1. Couldn’t agree more.
      Enough with the damn eagles talk every fucking minute of every fucking day. Give it a damn rest.

    2. So true, this is actually exciting that the Flyers organization is making a push to the playoffs without selling their future. The future is bright!

  3. Could not agree more with the comment above. For the second day in a row Rob & Harry are breaking down “what would you do” with the number 8 pick in the draft. I know Eagles talk drives ratings but at a certain point I just switch to music.

    Nice to read something different and intelligent, excellent post.

  4. Malkin has 27 goals in 57 games to go along with 31 assists. 11 of the goals are on the power play. His absence completely disrupts their second line and really hurts the power play. Kyle’s analysis – “I don’t think it hurts them that much”. When a guy comes back in the playoffs from a 6 to 8 week absence they usually don’t come in rusty either…. Oh my F8cking god

    1. Disagree. Teams often pick up their play when a star goes out. See: Flyers, Voracek. In short bursts, it’s usually fine. When players come back from being out 6-8 weeks, it’s not a vacation. They’re injured, rehabbing, and often slightly out of shape and miss out on workout time, and therefore are not as effective. But sure, your take is very brilliant.

      1. You have to be trolling at this point, you can’t possibly be that clueless. The Flyers were a better team without Voracek, that’s what you’re going with? Do the Penguins have a Sam Gagner at the AHL level? Malkin and Crosby play on the first unit PP together, Malkin and Crosby are on the ice during the 3 on 3’s, in late game situations when they need a goal. Get some sleep.

  5. We are down the final 2. Correct vs B r a d f o r d W h i t e Water Heater

  6. Kyle, you should troll the WT hockey fans like you do with your Nova posts. Or maybe you already are.

  7. What does this mean?
    “The Flyers have five games remaining, including tonight, against the Red Wings and Penguins– two against the Red Wings, three against the Penguins.”

  8. How would either team’s percent chance to make the playoffs change with an overtime win compared to a shootout win. That doesn’t make any sense you fucking retards

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