I’ll start this off by saying what I’ve been telling myself for the past 15 hours: This is just a rumor. Just because teams are discussing a trade doesn’t mean it’s bound to happen (see: Okafor to Boston). The initial report even said a deal isn’t imminent. And the Sixers have been shopping Okafor and/or Noel to 15 teams, so this could just be one of many possible deals. Still, we’re reactionary by nature, so let’s get to it.

Here’s what the Sixers are reportedly discussing giving up:

  • Nerlens Noel
  • Robert Covington
  • Nik Stauskas

And here’s what the Hawks would be giving up:

  • Jeff Teague

That’s it. In this stage of the rumor/discussion, the Sixers are reportedly sending multiple assets in return for one, the soon-to-be 28-year-old Teague, who will be an unrestricted free agent next year. That’s reason one – and a pretty big one – why this potential deal is a head scratcher. Let’s let draft/salary cap/all things miscellaneous expert Derek Bodner explain the details:

The cap, which was set at just $70 million for the 2015-16 season, is set to jump to $92 million for 2016-17 and $107 million for 2017-18. This means Teague would be eligible to receive a pay bump from his $8 million in 2016-17 to roughly $30.5 million in 2017-18.

Now, that doesn’t mean Teague is necessarily going to get a max contract. And, for as bad as that numbers looks on first glance, what you really care about is what percentage of the cap that would represent …

More teams with money to spend means good players will get overpaid, especially 29-year-old players on a bad team looking to sign the last major contract of their career. If Teague is going to risk losing the certainty of winning — and let’s be honest, even the most optimistic of projections aren’t going to have the Sixers winning a ton of games next year — he’s not going to do it at a discount.

So you’re looking at a possible future where you’re paying Jeff Teague, out of his prime, around $30 million as he slides deeper into his 30s. Not only is that bad on the face of it, but the Sixers aren’t going to be a real contender for the next two seasons, even with the most optimistic projections. By the time you’re really competing, Teague will be well past his prime, while you’re still paying him like he’s not. Noel will be entering his.


Liberty Ballers’ resident takes expert Kyle Neubeck doesn’t hold back:

The underlying philosophy behind such a move is unsound regardless of which key piece would be sent back the other way. Much as I prefer Jahlil Okafor to be moved in a trade for reasons I’ve elaborated on previously, trading him for a player like Teague is just as bad, if not worse.

Teague isn’t an undervalued player in his mid-20s waiting to break out, but a decent player at the peak of his powers with no reasonable room left to grow. There’s near-zero justification to make this trade. If you’re trading for him just to rent him, you’re getting horrendous value in the deal. If you’re keeping him long-term and planning to pay him a boatload of cash, why not just overpay a stopgap this offseason without sacrificing valuable players as trade currency?

This is a move made by a salesman, not a basketball executive.

Neubeck is completely right. Even throwing “The Process” out the window, this is the kind of trade that more often than not sets a team back. It’s one of those deals people look at in retrospect and say “what were they thinking?”. But let’s imagine it’s not just Teague coming back, what else could the Hawks throw in?

Players

Did you know Mike Scott, known for his emoji tattoos, is facing the possibility of 25 years in prison? 25! He’s not a throw in here.

Kent Bazemore is enticing, but he’s an unrestricted free agent. A homecoming for a late-30s Kyle Korver would be cute but useless. Tim Haradway Jr. could fill in as a Covington replacement – better-ish at shooting the three, worse at defense – but he’s smaller and more expensive than Cov’s ridiculous contract (though younger). Mike Muscala lost the NBA’s all-star weekend talent show, in which he rapped. Please don’t get Mike Muscala.

Draft Picks

The Hawks own their own first round picks for all measurable years to come. They also have the Timberwolves pick in 2018 (top-14 protected for three years) and a handful of second-round picks. There’s something worth a throw-in here, but no real turning point for the deal.

I’m higher on Noel than most, but when you bring their contracts and age into play, there is no way Noel + Covington and/or Stauskas = Teague + Hardaway Jr. (for example). This deal screams “win now, no matter what” and if that’s Bryan Colangelo’s strategy, I have to wonder if he’s looked at his roster lately. And if he plans on rebuilding the team basically from scratch this season through trades and free agency, it makes a ton of sense why Papa Jerry had to lead him into this job.

This is a bad idea. A very bad idea. It’s a Gob Bluth-level “I’ve made a huge mistake” bad idea. Noel is underrated, should be able to return to playing center this year (if you TRADE OKAFOR) and will play nearly all of next season at 22-years-old. 22! Stauskas may be trash emoji. Covington may be no better than he was last year. Nerlens is a 22-year-old with a ton of defensive potential and passable offense on a team that should have more scoring options. In fact, this trade only really makes sense to me if you trade BOTH Nerlens and Okafor. If Bryan doesn’t believe in either of them, fine. That’s fair. If Bryan is choosing Okafor over Nerlens (either as your center or as Embiid insurance), I question Bryan’s ability to construct a team that plays well together.

Bryan Colangelo mentioned in his introductory press conference that there were no shortcuts to the top, “only shortcuts to the middle.” This move is one made by someone who knows that, but has really had to piss for the last ten miles and doesn’t really care where he ends up, he’s just gotta make that move.