Hot off of the heels of two straight Joel Embiid-less victories, I’m left here wondering one thing: Was Embiid really that wrong when he said the Sixers were thinking playoffs? Yes and no.

The Sixers currently sit 12th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 17-27. Even though they’ve won two in a row without him, they’re obviously a much better team with him on the floor. When he’s in the game, the Sixers have outscored their opponents by 67 points. With he’s not, they’ve been outscored by 291. It’s not even close. But they’ve been surging lately. They’re 13-9 in their last 22 games. In the games during that stretch that Embiid has played in, they’re 10-6. In 2017, they’re 9-3. Can they make the playoffs?

First, I’ll give you the very optimistic math: If they play their last 38 games at the same win percentage as their last 22, they’ll end the season on a 22-16 run and end up finishing at 39-43. According to FiveThirtyEight – who currently have the Bulls and Pistons finishing with that record in the East, that gives the Sixers anywhere from a 50-56% chance of making the post-season. If they play their last 38 games at the pace they’ve played the last 16 with Embiid (.625 winning percentage), that’ll take them all the way up to 41-41, projected to be good enough for a seventh seed playoff berth (avoiding the Cavs!).

But the Sixers play eight more back-to-backs this season. That likely means no Embiid for the latter half of them. Let’s say they lose all 8. The remaining 30 games – even played at the .625 rate – would result in a final record of 36-46, good enough for a 9th or 10th place finish.

These projections could be wildly off in any direction. Once Simmons is back, any guess as to how good the Sixers will be with him and Embiid is just that, a guess. They could markedly improve, but it’s also possible, if not likely, that there will be some growing pains as Simmons assimilates himself into a rotation that has been clicking fairly well. If the trade deadline sends Nerlens Noel away and the team rides with Okafor as their backup big-man (God no), it swings some games in the other direction. There’s still a lot that can happen this year. But based on the way the Sixers’ have been playing over the last quarter of the season, the playoffs are within reach.