The Sixers’ Best-Case Lottery Scenario is Happening Right Now

Photo Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Sixers and Magic are currently tied for the league’s 4th best lottery odds. When that happens, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. So you take the total number of ping-pong ball combos for #4 and #5, add them together, and each team gets half. But if that tie is broken with the Sixers on the losing (but lottery winning) end, they’re sitting in their best-case scenario.

current standings

The Sixers and Orlando both have three games left. The Sixers play Milwaukee, Indiana, and the Knicks. The Magic play the Pacers, Bulls, and Pistons. It seems unlikely, but the Sixers just need Orlando to win one more game than they win. If so, their current odds at a top-3 and #1 pick jump from 33.7% and 10.4% in the tie situation to 37.8% and 11.9% in 4th. If they fall cleanly behind the Magic (no tie), they drop to 29.2% and 8.8%. The odds get even better when you add in the Kings’ odds.

Because of the pick swap, you can just add the Kings’ odds at #1 and top-3 right on to the Sixers’. Currently, Sacramento is in a tie as well, with Minnesota, with four games left. Depending on where they land, Sacramento’s pick can add a full 15% chance to a top-3 Sixers pick and a 4.3% chance at the number one pick. That’d bring the Sixers’ best case numbers up to 52.8% and 16.2%. Those are better numbers, in both cases, than LA has in the third-best spot. And if LA stays there – Phoenix has a 1.5 game hold on the #2 odds spot – the Sixers will have a 53.1% chance at getting the Lakers pick and a 49% chance that it’s #4 or 5. In layman’s terms: If the Lakers land in the #3 odds spot, the Sixers land at #4, and the Kings land at #7, the Sixers have better odds than the Lakers do at a top-3 pick and a #1 pick, while also possessing strong odds of getting the Lakers’ pick.

When the balls fall, the balls fall. But the Sixers are just a couple of games away from being set up in the best possible attainable situation.

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16 Responses

  1. Anything on the cowboy and steelers fan besting the fuck out of eagles fans in south jersey

    1. HEY JIM.
      SHUT down your fucking sixers coverage,.
      We are tired of the fucking bullshit.

      BRADSTER OUT!

  2. That graphic is pathetic. 9 GB from the fucking worst record…. like that is some type of accomplishment.

  3. Dammit I’m tired of reading about lottery pick percentages and this team. It is like groundhog day. Next year, everyone better be healthy and playing. No more bullshitting around.

  4. I love how Kyle didn’t even mention him in the post. He could have at least said that Jim would be making the coffee run or something.

  5. Dude, you don’t just add the Kings’ percentages to the 6ers’ to get their new odds. Learn 2 statistics.

  6. Jim said- “Because of the pick swap, you can just add the Kings’ odds at #1 and top-3 right on to the Sixers’.

    Not quite that simple Jim. There are complex statistical components involved.

  7. The sixers may win 2 of 3. They unfortunately will beat the knicks to end the season.

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