The Sixers Have Shockingly Good Odds To Win The Series

This is wild.

A $100 bet on the Sixers to win the series – you know, the one in which they trail 3-1, were trailing 3-0, and look like a shell of their actual selves in – would net you a cool $318 at 5dimes.eu.

Generally speaking, a 3x payout is a decent gamble. But for a team trailing 3-1, it feels like the odds should be much, much lower, with a more significant payout if you are willing to wager on the Sixers to win the series.

And yet, they’re not.

Conversely, the Pelicans, who trail the Warriors 3-1, are +9000. That’s not a typo– those are three 0’s. The Jazz, in the same position, are +10000(!!!) against the Rockets.

Somebody loves the Sixers, and is wagering heavily on them. Before Game 4, the number was as low as +450 yesterday– a $450 payout on a $100 bet for a team trailing a series 3-0, a Tyrone Hill that has never been climbed in NBA history.

Naturally, the Sixers are 1.5-point favorites in Game 5, as they have been (favorites) all series.

Every time we post about the lines, someone tweets me something along the lines of “who cares” or “what does that have to do with anything,” and though the answer is often “it doesn’t,” gambling odds represent an amalgam of data, public sentiment and big money betting. Though the Eagles were Underdogs in each of their playoff games, we noted how the lines generally moved in their direction and their chances to win the Super Bowl were not damaged all that much following Carson Wentz’s injury. Vegas usually has an inkling when something is unlikely, but plausible, as opposed to impossible. +9000 and +10000 is borderline impossible. +318 is difficult but reasonable. That’s where the Sixers find themselves right now.

Why? Who knows. Coming into the series winning 20 out of 21 games helps. The Celtics missing their best player does as well. But even after poor performances in Games 1-3, the Sixers remained a favorite in Game 4, and will be again, on the road, in Game 5. They held late leads in both Games 2 and 3, and are just a few possessions away from being up 3-1 in the series, this despite questionable rotation choices, a long layoff, and a stagnant offense. Last night, they seemed to find their game – with the help of TJ McConnell – and for the first time all series made the Celtics look like the inferior team. What’s more, the Celtics seemed ill-equipped, perhaps tired(!), to keep up with McConnell’s speed and then had to resort to Greg Monroe (lol) for some offense.

Here’s what The Action Network had to say before the game:

This thing went sideways REALLY fast. Of the four second-round series, this one definitely wins the award for the one I have gotten the most wrong, and it really all spawns from Game 3. My philosophy was that Philly would absolutely win its three home games, and it just needed one in Boston. Well, cue the “Price is Right” horn after that terrible display of basketball to close out Saturday’s loss. The really wild thing is the market hasn’t totally turned on Philly from a series standpoint. The Sixers are about +500, almost criminally low, to come back from down 0-3 in a best-of-seven series, which, oh by the way, has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE in the NBA. We all just don’t want to believe this is happening, and yet here we are.

I’ve passed on two of the three individual games so far in this series, but now with seemingly everyone off the Philadelphia bandwagon in Game 4 (lots of bets on Boston so far), the time is now! Sixers -6.5. They are coming off an atrocious shooting game, in which they also had atrocious mistakes, atrocious turnovers and atrocious shot-taking in the final 15 seconds instead of passing it out for a foul to be called. I think a bounce-back at home to show any semblance of pride seems likely, and I get a lower number by THREE POINTS than I would have gotten two days ago. What an incredible adjustment from one game to the next without injuries to either team.

The Sixers have fallen behind in the series thanks to a curious decision to remove T.J. McConnell from Game 2 and horrible late-game sequences in Game 3. They are much better than the series record indicates, making them a relatively decent bet with per-game lines now down to under two points.

I’ve felt since Game 1 that the Sixers could rattle off four in a row in this series. I don’t still think it’s likely, seeing as though the Celtics have proved more adept than anyone thought, but this is not some out-of-the-realm-of-possibility scenario. They could win the series, and Vegas doesn’t even think it’s all that crazy if they do.

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12 Comments

  • pepper May 8, 2018 at 1:40 pm

    philly book makers have been cleaning up this series

    Reply
    • Portis May 8, 2018 at 2:18 pm

      The Cuz made 100k on last nights game. Chump change to the Cuz. That big dicked fuck loves the life.

      Reply
  • Ross Saldana May 8, 2018 at 1:46 pm

    I completely agree it’s possible. The mistakes the Sixers made were foolish and their decisions highly questionable. They beat themselves. I think the Celtics have really only won one game at this point.

    The Sixers need to reach deep and simply be who they are. They can win both Game 5 and 6. Game 7 will be the testament of who wants it the most. I would love to see that happen and be proud of the Sixers regardless of the outcome.

    Reply
  • Optomistic May 8, 2018 at 2:11 pm

    I’ve been beating the Flyers-Bruins 2010 drum for three straight days my wrists are killing me. Seriously, this feels the same

    Reply
    • Hockey is so much different May 9, 2018 at 11:44 am

      Home ice means nothing, Goals are flukey. Hitting the post can be the difference between winning and losing. Goalie gets hot. Because there are so many points in a basketball game things even out. Home court is huge. You see it all the time with the refs calling fouls.

      Reply
  • Portis May 8, 2018 at 2:17 pm

    The Cuz and Mike Miss have already covered this topic.

    Reply
  • Let's Zoom Off! May 8, 2018 at 2:52 pm

    Let’s take care of the Celtics first, and then the next opponent, if it comes to that . Room for improvement here. Trade Fultzie, Amir, J, Anderson, TLC, if they must. Get Larry Brown to ring the bell. Funny J-Roll did that instead of Deke last night, but oh well…

    Reply
  • Vegas Vic May 8, 2018 at 3:06 pm

    Ummmm, actually Sixers Series line is now +300

    Reply
  • Kyle Scott May 8, 2018 at 3:11 pm

    Wow.

    Reply
  • Mike May 8, 2018 at 11:58 pm

    Odds would be higher not lower. Have you ever bet on sports in your life? Lower odds=closer to favorite. Higher odds=longer shot to cash.

    Reply
  • Anthony May 9, 2018 at 6:35 am

    It was never done in baseball and hockey until it was done. The odds certainly are against it happening but I think the sixers van do it. Mike, I agree with you comments about the odds. I was thinking the same thing when I read that.

    Reply
  • The Celts are now around -460 May 9, 2018 at 11:41 am

    Still a pretty low number.

    Reply
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