It remains a question whether Anthony Martial will face Liverpool. Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas, USA TODAY

Come on, you didn’t think I forgot about you, did you? Yes, this column usually runs on Friday night — but there were Premier League matches on Friday and Saturday and literally none of them were worth picking. This week’s excitement is strictly backloaded, which explains the relative tardiness of this piece. There are two more Premier League fixtures this weekend, and then (because it’s quite possibly free money) we’re going to address the Carabao Cup final between Manchester City and Chelsea at Wembley.

Also, this is as good a time as any to mention that I swept my last three picks and that I’m five for my last six. It’s not nearly time to get overconfident, but it does seem like the light at the end of this tunnel is getting just a little closer. Onto this week’s winners:

ARSENAL v. SOUTHAMPTON

More often than I care to admit, my admonishment (to myself mostly) is to keep things as simple as possible. We’re going to do that here. Southampton hasn’t played for over two weeks since they lost to relegation-threatened Cardiff City at home. Arsenal has been a bit of mixed bag, but their recent results against the clubs at the bottom of the table demonstrate a pretty clear pattern:

2/9: Huddersfield Town (20th in the table) 1-2 Arsenal; 1/29 Arsenal 2-1 Cardiff City (17th); 1/1 Arsenal 4-1 Fulham (19th).

Southampton is presently 18th in the league. So we can be reasonably certain of two things: 1. Arsenal will win; and 2. Arsenal will not keep a clean sheet. Take Arsenal to win AND over 2.5 goals at 11/10.

MANCHESTER UNITED v. LIVERPOOL

For a long while there it looked like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer would never lose a match managing Manchester United. The spell was broken fairly conclusively by Paris Saint-Germain in Champions League play, but you try dealing with Kylian Mbappe when he’s at his best.

United is still unbeaten in Premier League play since December 22, with eight wins and a draw in that span. The schedule has been kind, but United has carried that momentum forward as recently as Monday, when they tossed Chelsea out of the FA Cup. Love United or loathe them, you have to respect what they have accomplished since The Special One was sent away.

Then you look at Liverpool. The picture just isn’t as pretty. Jurgen Klopp’s men were seven points clear of Manchester City as recently as January 12. City has chased Liverpool down, having played one extra league match. Liverpool’s match in hand is this visit to Old Trafford. What irony, that United will be looking to do City a favor here. And United will be doing so against a Liverpool side that has struggled in recent days to score goals. In five of Liverpool’s last seven matches in all competitions, the Reds have scored once or not at all.

It is so tempting to take United to win at 2/1. It’s not often that a home side in a match pitting the second-place team versus the fourth-place team would give you the opportunity to double your money for a simple win. But pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered. Because both teams would probably be satisfied with a draw, take United to win draw no bet at 11/10.

MANCHESTER CITY v. CHELSEA (CARABAO CUP FINAL)

All right, fine, this isn’t a Premier League match. Feel free to disregard this pick if you’re that much of a purist. This cup final pits the leaders of the Premier League (as of this writing anyway) against a Chelsea side that still has a reasonable chance to secure the last European place on offer in the league.

But then you see something like this, and you really have to wonder what the hell is going on at Chelsea:

So Sarri thinks Chelsea is being unfairly criticized? Fine. But permit me to point out the results in 2019 that might cause the Blues’ supporters some concern. Chelsea lost 2-0 to that Arsenal side that they’re supposedly better than on January 19. Chelsea lost 4-0 away to Bournemouth — BOURNEMOUTH — on January 30. Chelsea lost 6-0 away to City in a match where, if City had really wanted to, they could have scored 10, on February 10. And as noted above, Chelsea was escorted out of the FA Cup 2-0 by United on Monday.

We can all agree that City will not win this match 6-0 or anything close to that. It’s a cup final, it’s at a neutral site, and Chelsea has regained a bit of its moxie from surviving the Round of 32 in the Europa League this week.

But City ain’t Malmo. And let’s not forget that Sarri flagrantly disrespected Pep Guardiola at the end of that 6-0 beating. Do you really think Sarri is capable of summoning up Chelsea’s best effort against a City side that has won five in a row in all competitions? Do you really think Guardiola is going to lose this match after Sarri walked away from him? Good luck with that. The pick here is to take City to win at 4/7. 

WEEK 26 RESULTS

Manchester United to win against Fulham at 6/10: WIN

Watford to win against Everton at 13/10: WIN

Manchester City to win against Chelsea at 1/2: WIN

WEEK 26 TOTAL: +$240

SEASON TO DATE: -$1479