The Flyers and Penguins are scheduled to renew their rivalry Saturday when they take it outside… again. There’s a lot to consider, especially the betting ramifications because this seems like a good a time as any to lay some money on a hockey game. Here are your best bets:

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Losses this week to Tampa and Montreal have hurt a pursuit of a playoff spot for the Flyers, but with a little help from Ottawa and Dallas, a Flyers win in the Stadium Series matchup can get them within five points of the final playoff spot with 20 games to go.

It’s also a big game for the Penguins. Because if Ottawa and Dallas lose (to Columbus and Carolina respectively), the Penguins could fall out of a playoff spot by losing to the Flyers, somewhere Pittsburgh never expected itself to be with just 20 games to go in the season.

Handicapping this game at this juncture wouldn’t be a complete exercise without the knowledge of the outcomes of Blue Jackets-Senators and Hurricanes-Stars, but there are enough interesting snippets that can give you an early idea of how this game could go.

 

Odds

The Flyers are 1.5 goal underdogs at DraftKings with an over-under of 6.5 goals, FanDuel is offering action besides moneyline bets favoring the Penguins, and SugarHouse has an assortment of odds and props.

 

Home teams in outdoor games

Some feel that home teams struggle in outdoor games, but that appears to be a myth.

Maybe it’s because the Winter Classic has resulted in a visiting team victory in seven of the 10 times it’s been played. Or maybe it’s because NHL home teams in outdoor games were technically 5-14 straight up in the first 19 outdoor games.

But a closer look tells a different story.

First of all, the New York Rangers were considered the “visiting” team at three outdoor games – two in Yankee Stadium and one in Citi Field where the Mets play. The New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres served as “home” teams in two of those games, which seems silly (The New York Islanders were for the other, which is a little better, but the Rangers play a lot closer to Yankee Stadium than the Islanders did/do).

The reason the Rangers were the visiting team? In order for Madison Square Garden to keep its tax exempt status, the Rangers can not play their home games anywhere else. So, it’s a little bit of legal fiction that they were the visiting team in those games, meaning that in the 26 NHL games that have been played outdoors, the real home team has won 13 and lost 13. So, a coin flip.

Not to mention, the home team has won six of the last seven outdoor games (I included the Rangers beating Buffalo) with only the Chicago Blackhawks losing this past New Year’s Day to Boston in their “home” game at Notre Dame Stadium in Indiana.

The last actual home team to lose an outdoor game in the same city and state where they play their indoor games was the Winnipeg Jets, getting shutout 3-0 by Edmonton in October, 2016.

So, I think we have to throw this home ice disadvantage out the window.

 

The Flyers in outdoor games

Disclaimer: This really shouldn’t matter since each year is a new team, but humor me anyway.

This will be the Flyers fourth outdoor game.They lost the first three, dropping the 2010 Winter Classic in Boston’s Fenway Park to the Bruins, 2-1, in overtime… the 2012 Winter Classic to the Rangers, 3-2, at Citizens Bank Park… and the 2017 Stadium Series game at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, 4-2, to the Penguins.

At the very least, this would suggest that the Flyers tend to play close games outdoors, albeit in a small sample size. But, consider the Flyers have only lost five of their last 21 games by more than one goal (or come within a +1 spread 16 of their last 21 games) – and that includes two this week to Tampa and Montreal.

So, maybe you combine the historical trend of close games outdoors with the notion that the Flyers have played the last quarter of the season with very few losses by more than one goal, and maybe that’s worth betting them as a 1 1/2 puck underdog (according to DraftKings) against the Penguins on Saturday.

 

Carter Hart

Not really.

I wrote a story following the loss to Montreal that everything will be fine with Hart and you shouldn’t worry that he’s tired, overworked, or breaking down mentally.

But, as I noted, there’s something to be said for an NHL team seeing a rookie goalie a second time. Every team will attack a goalie differently after seeing him once. Hart’s numbers against the three teams that saw him the second time around all went backwards – even if he won two of those games.

However, in those two wins, he got a lot of offense from the Flyers, which covered up his decrease in save percentage. It’s tough to score goals outside. Especially if some precipitation rolls in at some point in the game.

Hart gave up three goals on 27 shots against Pittsburgh last week (.889 save percentage) and is 2-6-0 in games he stops less than 90 percent of the shots on goal. Considering his second time out tends to be worse, I’d expect Pittsburgh to actually score at least three on him in this one.

Meanwhile, Matt Murray made 50 saves in the last game against the Flyers and the Flyers offense hasn’t been great in the last three games.

As such, Pittsburgh at minus-120 (Draft Kings) seems like a good play right now as it’s a low risk vs. reward on a favorite while the Flyers at +105 (Draft Kings) doesn’t really offer value for a team that could well be nine points out of a playoff spot heading into the game and facing an uncertain future with the trade deadline on Monday afternoon.

Scratch that. And him.

 

The total seems high

Yes, it does. Very much so.

Only seven of the 26 NHL outdoor games have had seven goals or more, and only three of those went beyond seven.

So really, it’s likely that you are crossing your fingers on an empty net goal just to get you to seven.

Not to mention, the over/under was also 6.5 when these two teams played last Monday. It came under easily – and that was with an empty-netter.

Despite Hart’s (uh, whomever’s) recent struggles and the fact that Murray can’t be expected to make 50 saves again, it’s likely this one has fewer shots on goal. That outdoor ice gets choppier and shots aren’t as accurate. And then there’s the potential for rain and wind. There’s likely to be a rise in missed shots, but not shots on goal.

As such, take the under. Pittsburgh wins this one 4-2 – with an empty netter. 

 

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