Michigan State vs. LSU Odds

No. 3 seed LSU knows a thing or two about overcoming adversity. The Tigers impressively brushed aside the late-season indefinite suspension of head coach Will Wade and an embarrassing stumble to underdog Florida in the SEC Tournament to win a pair of games last weekend. They will likely need to tap into that resiliency in order to get past No. 2 seed Michigan State tonight. Currently, Michigan State is -6 and the over/under is 152 at DraftKings Sportsbook– get your first bet matched up to $500 and insurance on Sweet 16 games. You can also bet on the game with one of many NJ online sports betting options.

Michigan State has shot an efficient 48.6% from the floor this season while limiting opponents to only 37.7% shooting, the third-lowest percentage in the country. The Spartans heavily rely on star guard Cassius Winston, who is averaging 18.9 points per game, for its offense. It was Winston who led the way in the Spartans’ 70-50 second round dismantling of Big Ten rival Minnesota, and it will be on him to do it again against LSU’s deep rotation.

As for the Tigers, they’re an efficient bunch from inside the arc, shooting 53.1%, but are poor from beyond it. Their 32% mark from deep is 295th in the nation. Like Winston, guard Tremont Waters has the ability to take over a game, but LSU does have four regular who average double-figures and eight players averaging at least 15 minutes per game. Every bit of that depth will be needed to knock off Michigan State.

Will LSU continue its unexpected march through the tournament under interim head coach Tony Benford, or will Tom Izzo’s team get back to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2015? Let’s take a look at what to expect when these two teams take the floor at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C. tonight.

Trends

Michigan State has been one of the nation’s top ATS teams this season. The Spartans are 25-11 ATS overall, 23-9 ATS as a favorite, and 1-1 ATS thus far in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan State is also 6-2 ATS when favored between four and eight points and an amazing 16-1 ATS (!!!) against teams with a .650 or better winning percentage. Absurd. Tom Izzo’s squad is also an excellent 7-1 straight up in neutral court games this season. Meanwhile, big picture history is also working in Michigan State’s favor. When higher-seeded teams are also favored in Sweet 16 contests, they have gone an impressive 74-29 straight up since 2005. While all of this information presents a pretty compelling argument in the Spartans’ favor, a deeper dive unearths some data that gives LSU backers a reason to believe.

The 74-29 SU record mentioned above comes with a caveat found in last night’s action: Texas Tech and Purdue each bucked this trend with upset wins as lower-seeded teams, albeit both games featured much shorter spreads than this one. To that end, No. 3 seeds are 9-11 SU against No. 2 seeds in Sweet 16 games dating back to 2005, but are 2-0 SU this year.

Perhaps equally important is that lower-seeded teams which are underdogs of three to six points are 5-2 ATS in Sweet 16 games since 2005 and 9-5 ATS when that number is stretched between two and nine points. The thesis here is that while Michigan State should win the game, history suggests that laying this many points in games with closely seeded teams hasn’t been a good bet in recent Sweet 16 action.

There, too, are some impressive LSU SU and ATS trends to consider here. The Tigers are 7-1 SU with four or more days rest. What really jumps out is LSU’s 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS record as an underdog as its shown itself to be an excellent team when counted out this season. It’s not all good for Benford’s team, however, as it is only 2-8-2 ATS against teams allowing less than 67 points per game. LSU has really struggled to gain separation against the number when playing more defensive-minded teams, relevant because the Spartans are limiting opponents to only 65.1 points per contest.

Prediction

This is a tough, tough game. Michigan State is so good against the number when playing elite competition, while LSU excels as an underdog. I’m going to do something I rarely ever do this late in the tournament, and, frankly, I don’t believe this is sound advice, but I’ll take Michigan State to win the game and LSU to cover the six-point spread. History has shown that similar matchups between closely seeded teams in this round at this number have profiled favorably for the underdog. I’ll take the six, maybe buy it up to 6.5, and hold my breath.

Other Sweet 16 Picks and Predictions

Houston (+3) over Kentucky

The uncertainty of P.J. Washington’s status is a red flag, and if I’m being honest, I think Houston may just be the flat-out better team. Houston is 4-1 ATS as an underdog, 12-4 ATS in road or neutral site games, 13-5 ATS against teams that win more than 65% percent of their games, and 16-6-1 ATS when they have at least four days of rest. True, they’re playing an American Athletic Conference schedule, but I’m not in love with Kentucky either.

UNC (-5.5) over Auburn

No. 1s that are at least four seeds higher than their opponents are 13-3 SU, but only 8-8 ATS in Sweet 16 action since 2005. Meh, whatever. Nice season by Auburn, but it ends here, and I suspect it’s not all that close.

Duke (-7) over Virginia Tech

This is a total no-play for me. Sorry. Can’t like ‘em all. Virginia Tech took down Duke earlier this season when the Blue Devils didn’t have Zion Williamson. Obviously, they’ll have his services this time around, but the Hokies will have back the school’s all-time assists leader in senior guard Justin Robinson, who also missed that February meeting. Virginia Tech has beaten Duke in three of the past four meetings, so this wouldn’t be a shocker by any stretch. Still, I suspect we’re heading for UNC-Duke Part IV and the Blue Devils to rebound with a convincing performance after their narrow escape Sunday against UCF.