We need to talk about hedging again.

Last week was an utter catastrophe. I made three picks and none of them came through. However, if you rolled with these picks and you were paying attention, the potential was there with two of the picks to guarantee some return on investment. Leicester City lost 1-0 to Manchester United, so that was lost money from the jump. But circumstances conspired beautifully with the other two picks.

Saturday’s parlay of Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City to win at -142 was perfect through the first two matches, as Liverpool and Spurs both won handily. That left Manchester City at newly-promoted Norwich City, a side that had lost almost a dozen first-team players to various injuries in training during the week. By the time City and Norwich kicked off on Saturday, City was up to a -1100 favorite, with Norwich +1000 to draw and +2000 to win.

Savvy players knew what to do. Your $100 stake on the parlay was going to return about $70. If you took $20 of those potential winnings and put it on Norwich to draw, then took another $10 of those potential winnings and put in on Norwich to win, you were going to finish in the black. Either your parlay would cash, and you would clear $40 (not great, but not a loss) OR you would (relatively speaking) clean up if Norwich got a result. As it happened, the $10 on Norwich to win returned $200, which more than covered your parlay loss.

Then, on Sunday, Arsenal (which I took at even money to win) jumped out to a 2-0 lead against Watford, which had been +250 to win and +260 to draw before the match started. The odds on Watford surely spiked after they went down 0-2; again, the move, if you were risk-averse, was to put something on Watford to win and to draw, and protect your downside. That’s not gambling, per se, but it’s not losing, either.

Incidentally, I am aware that it just as easily could have been Liverpool blowing the parlay in the first match, and it could have been Arsenal going down 2-0 early. But that’s not how it happened, and it helps to remember that these options are available to you in the moment if eliminating the possibility of the outright loss interests you. Where returns of -142 and +100 are concerned, eliminating the chance of losing outright when you can actually makes plenty of sense.

Nowhere to go but up this week. Here are this week’s value plays. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook PA.

LEICESTER CITY (+175) v. TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR (+150) — DRAW (+240)

Tottenham Hotspur cannot be happy with the Premier League schedulers. Spurs played in Greece on Wednesday night against a gritty Olympiakos side in the Champions League group stage. Olympiakos came back from 0-2 down to grind out a useful draw.

Fresh off dropping those two crucial points in Champions League play, Spurs were faced with a return to London, followed by a trip to the midlands of England to face a Leicester City side that has been sitting home all week waiting for them. Worse yet, it’s the early (12:30 p.m. local time) kickoff.

The Foxes dropped their first decision of the young season at Old Trafford over the past weekend, but it bears noting that they are unbeaten at home this season and have won five, drawn two and lost only once at the King Power since February 23. There is no need to overdo it — Spurs’ record against Leicester in recent seasons is four wins in their last five league encounters — but Leicester is a very good value at +175.

BURNLEY (+105) v. NORWICH CITY (+250) — DRAW (+260)

Norwich City played the match of a generation against Manchester City last weekend. Did it take City hitting a post and giving away a ridiculous goal to make it 3-1 early in the second half? It did. But it happened.

That result is going to convince a lot of people that Norwich is “for real” and that they can keep the magic going against this far more moribund Burnley side. Don’t be one of those people. Even with the win, Norwich has a negative goal difference thanks to having conceded 12 times in five matches. The Canaries also lost both of their road starts so far this season.

This is another situation where keeping it simple should pay off. Burnley are no world-beaters, but they are an established top-flight side that finished seventh in the table two seasons ago. Norwich was seen by the touts as second-most likely to be sent right back to the Championship before the season started, and it’s not like all of the players who were not fit to face City are now suddenly fully healthy.

Burnley is home, and Norwich is apt to regress to its mean. Burnley at +105 is the wise play.

CHELSEA (+270) v. LIVERPOOL (-105) — DRAW (+270)

We don’t do too much “the line is telling you something” in these parts, because that’s usually a fallacy. In this instance, though, there might be something to it.

Liverpool is seven points better than Chelsea through five matches played. They lead the league by five points and just picked up the gift of all gifts from Norwich City, whose win over Manchester City helped to create that huge gap at the top of the table. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s results this season include losing 4-0 away to Manchester United and drawing at home with newly-promoted Sheffield United. All of that…and Liverpool is only -105 to win?

Geography again plays a role. Granted, both of these teams lost mid-week in Champions League group stage play, but Liverpool lost in Italy while Chelsea lost in London. So while neither team is exactly “rested,” at least Chelsea wasn’t traveling in the past few days.

These teams met in the UEFA Super Cup final a little over a month ago, and Liverpool needed penalties to win. It’s tempting to take the Chelsea win or draw with those odds, but the double chance on Chelsea at -130 is the smarter, safer choice.

Good luck this weekend.