Let’s get it back to the Eagles.

One of the new things taking place this year is reporters are getting weekly access to special teams coordinator Dave Fipp. Typically he’d only be available, if I recall correctly, a couple of times throughout the season, when other position coaches would speak.

There’s not always an interesting topic to discuss with the special teams guy, but Sunday’s 23-all tie centered around a kick or punt decision, not from Fipp, but from head coach Doug Pederson.

After Doug was questioned about the choice to boot the ball instead of try a 64-yard field goal, Fipp answered the same question Tuesday and gave a detailed and lengthy answer:

Q. What was K Jake Elliott’s range on Sunday, and was 64 yards out of the question? (Dave Zangaro)

DAVE FIPP: The range question is always interesting to me because I’ll just give you a handful of experiences that have happened to me or I’ve been a part of is what’s his range, well, that depends. When you ask me what his range is, do you want to know what his range is to be 100 percent from? Are you trying to say where is he 90 percent from, where is he 80 percent from, 70? I will say, I’ve been a part of an experience where a coach said, ‘Can we kick it from here,’ and another coach said, ‘Yeah, we can.’ And we missed the kick, and then the coach said, ‘Well, what happened,’ and he said, ‘Well, it wasn’t 100 percent, it was a long field goal.’ I think it was a 50-plus yard field goal. This was a long way back, but it was a long field goal. The coach said, ‘Well what happened,’ and he said, ‘Well, I didn’t say it was 100 percent.’

So the range thing is interesting, and then obviously on top of that range question is there’s risk and reward, and that’s all got to be balanced, and then there’s time on the clock, and that all has to be balanced.

At the end of the day, there’s a lot that goes into it. Now, if you’re asking me what’s the furthest he can kick the ball from, I don’t totally know the answer to that question only because you would have to tell me what the conditions are and the wind and the weather, the temperature, density altitude. I mean, all that stuff plays a factor in how the ball carries.

So I’m not trying to skirt the question. Obviously, we have a lot of confidence in Jake. Coach and I have great communication. We talked about — he does a great job of talking to all of us. He talks to me before the game, he talks to Jake before the game. We talk about kind of a line to get, and when we talk about the first line to get, we’re really talking about just in a normal situation, 0-0 game or tie game early in the game. There’s a lot of time left. Where do we think that range is where he’s got a real high percentage of making that kick. So we talk about that line. And then there’s kind of another line or distance that’s more of the top end or in a must-get situation. If there’s five seconds or less on the clock and you know that’s going to be the last play of the game, then I would say that line goes further back.

All good points, and Fipp added that only one kicker has ever hit from 64 yards in NFL history (Matt Prater).

We have to consider that a missed field goal would have allowed the Bengals to try to complete a pass, stop the clock, and try their own field goal as well. There’s a consideration that goes beyond just an Elliott make or miss.

Jake is 11-18 on kicks from 50+ yards over the course of his four-year NFL career. That includes 10 regular season makes, and one from the 2017 Atlanta playoff game. His career long is 61 yards, from the 2017 Giants game, which also happens to be an Eagles’ franchise record.

It would be interesting to look at the Birds’ probability sheet when it comes to kicking. You’d have a sliding percentage for kicks 60+, 55+, 50+, so on and so forth. Factors include wind, north/south facing, etc. The real question pertaining to Sunday would be what the analytics say about Cincinnati possibly getting a crack at a field goal of their own, and whether or not Randy Bullock had a chance to hit it. His career long is 57 yards, and he missed a game-tying 37 yarder earlier in the year.

To match Bullock’s career long, the Bengals would have had to reach the Eagles’ 40 yard line with a little less than 18 seconds to work with. With them getting the ball just inside the Eagles portion of the field (near the 47)*, that’s about a seven-yard gain and clock stoppage just to set up a 57-yarder. In hindsight, the decision to punt looks less than stellar not because of the chance of Elliott missing his kick, but because of the unlikely probability of Cincy pulling off those two steps and nailing their own attempt.

Edit – I had the Cincy yardage messed up. They get the ball back not at the line of scrimmage, but from where the kick itself was attempted, so the Eagles would have had to limit them to a seven-yard gain in order for them to give Bullock a career-long attempt*