The Saints will try to make it a clean three-game season sweep over the Buccaneers this evening in New Orleans when the two teams wrap up the NFL Divisional Round slate. As the final game of the weekend, one featuring two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, the betting action on this contest figures to be heavy.
Beyond standard market odds, there are plenty of other ways to bet on this game, so let’s dive in and take a closer look at the best Buccaneers vs. Saints prop bets and picks.
Buccaneers vs. Saints Props
Here is the current line for Buccaneers vs. Saints at DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Buccaneers +3 (-112) / Saints -3 (-108)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers (+140) / Saints (-162)
- Total: Under 52 (-112) / Over 52 (-109)
The game odds have held firm throughout the week. The Saints opened as a field goal-favorite following the wild card round and have remained there since, while the total has consistently sat a tick above 50 points.
For full against the spread picks and analysis, check out this NFL Divisional Round playoff betting guide.
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Jared Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (-167, FanDuel Sportsbook)
There will be plenty of talk about Rob Gronkowski this afternoon, but the tight end over on the opposite sideline is a good player, too.
In the Week 1 meeting between these two teams, Cook hauled in five catches on seven targets for 80 yards. That game marked his second-highest receiving output of this season in terms of yardage and also tied his season-high for receptions. That may not have been a coincidence given Tampa Bay has struggled against opposing tight ends this season.
Only six teams gave up more receptions to opposing tight ends this season than the 88 allowed by the Bucs. Cook hauled in another three passes for 30 yards in the November meeting between these two teams, a 38-3 rout that was essentially over midway through the second quarter.
Coming off a week in which he hauled in four catches on seven targets, there’s no reason to think Cook won’t once again eclipse this relatively modest total. He isn’t going be a high-volume target in this offense, but he’s a relatively safe bet to get the share necessary to cash this play.
Consistency in the numbers should create confidence. Since December, Cook has had no less than four targets in all six of his games played. He’s also hauled in at least three receptions in five of those games, including his four-catch, 40-yard performance in which he was targeted seven times last week against the Bears.
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Alvin Kamara Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alvin Kamara figures to have a huge impact on this football game and this pick isn’t to suggest he won’t have a productive day.
I’m aware 60.5 yards is a fairly attainable number, but it’s worth pointing out that Tampa Bay allowed the fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs this season. In fact, the Bucs defense was the only unit to allow less than 1,000 rushing yards to opposing backs and yielded 166 yards less than the next best team.
For what it’s worth, the Tampa Bay defense allowed 101 receptions to opposing running backs in 2020, which was the most in the league, so Kamara should have plenty of opportunities to create havoc in the passing game.
Still, when it comes to rushing totals, Kamara eclipsed the 60.5 yard mark in just 7 of his 16 games, which includes a 99-yard ground effort last week against the Bears.
He was completely bottled up in the Week 1 matchup agains the Bucs, gaining just 16 yards on 12 carries and was held to 40 yards on nine carries in the second meeting, although he wasn’t needed in the second half of that one.
Kamara has easily eclipsed 60.5 yards in each of his last two games, but he hasn’t done so in three straight games all season and the bet here is that trend will continue.
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Brady to Throw For More TDs Than Brees (-121, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sure, the Saints are favored and they’ve also gotten the best of this matchup in the first two meetings, but I expect to see a very different Bucs team than the one that showed up in those games.
Since that 38-3 loss back on Nov. 8, Brady has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight straight contests, including four games in which he threw for at least three touchdown passes. This aerial attack is on fire right now.
The same cannot be said of the Saints’ passing attack. It’s true that Brees has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of four games since his return from injury in December, but New Orleans’ passing game frequently looked disjointed in its win over Chicago. Brees completed 28 of 39 pass attempts with two touchdowns but gained just 265 yards through the air.
It’s hard to beat a good team three times, and while the Saints might do it, I’ll still bank on Brady to turn in a big day to cash this one.