Another Carson Wentz nugget here:
Assuming this trade happens before a $10M roster bonus is owed on March 19th, the #Eagles will take on $33.8M of dead cap in 2021 – the largest single dead cap hit in NFL history.
1. C. Wentz, $33.8M
2. J. Goff, $22.2M
3. B. Cooks, $21.8M
4. A. Brown, $21.2M
5. M. Stafford, $19M
— Spotrac (@spotrac) February 18, 2021
Right, and we knew this was going to happen. The Eagles will eat Carson’s contract this season, but they’ll be free of it entirely in 2022. At that point, they’ll have Jalen Hurts under two more years of team control before he becomes a free agent.
That’s assuming they want to stick with Hurts. If they decide to trade him as well, and draft a QB this year, that guy would come with five years of team control and be paired with a first-year head coach as an NFL rookie.
I mentioned this in the previous story, but the conditional trigger that makes the second-rounder become a first-rounder is 75% of the snaps, or 70% and a playoff berth, according to Mike Garafolo.
Only once has Wentz played less than 70% of the snaps, which was in 2018, when he missed the front-end schedule with the ACL recovery and then the back-end with the back problem:
You can see from that chart that the sweet spot for Carson is going to be right around 12 games, so unless he has some kind of terrible injury next year, he is highly likely to hit that threshold, and trigger the first round pick. If the Colts are pretty good again, which we would expect them to be, then the first round is probably going to be in the 20-32 range.
The Eagles are going to be somewhat of a cap mess this year, which we understood. The good thing is that they’ll be able to pull themselves out of it in 2022.