Flyers vs. Islanders Betting Pick (March 22, 2021)

On Monday night, the Philadelphia Flyers will play host to the New York Islanders in the third and final game of a regular season mini-series.

Let’s get into our Flyers-Islanders betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this March 22, 2021 matchup.

Click here to get crazy 64-1 March Madness odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Flyers vs. Islanders Betting Pick (March 22, 2022)

What a week it has been for the Philadelphia Flyers. First, they came out of Madison Square Garden with a 5-4 overtime win thanks to a wonderful move at the end of a long shift by Jakub Voracek. Then they proceeded to get annihilated 9-0 by the same Rangers squad two nights later.

On the second-half of a back-to-back, the Orange & Black appeared to right the ship with Oskar Lindblom’s late goal giving the team a 4-3 win, their third victory in three games against the Isles. Of course, the Flyers had blown a 3-0 advantage in that game, but getting the win appeared to present an encouraging result to build on moving forward. However, the wheels came all the way off again in a 6-1 loss to the same Islanders squad. In what could only be described as a despondent effort by a team that looked mentally defeated and physically lethargic, the vocal doubts of the team were amplified on social media.

In what appeared to be another blow to the team’s morale, Sean Couturier’s status was left up in the air as the team announced Sunday that an update on the reigning Selke Trophy winner’s condition would be updated at some point on Monday. As it stands, per the team, Couturier’s status will remain a game-time decision as an MRI revealed a hip injury the center believes he should be able to play through.

If anyone feels bad for the Flyers given their situation, it’s certainly not the New York Islanders. The Isles are playing without captain Anders Lee who was lost to a torn ACL four games ago. In his absence, his team has gone 1-2-0, though that 4-3 loss to the Flyers saw New York mount a ferocious comeback to level the score late in the third period. Still, there are questions about the viability of the Islanders’ chances of competing for a Stanley Cup without Lee in the lineup.

The teams have each won two games against the other this season. Who will break the tie?

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Flyers vs. Islanders Odds

Here’s the line for the Flyers and Islanders at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:

Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-245), Islanders -1.5 (+200)
Moneyline: Flyers +110, Islanders -129
Over/Under: O 5.5 -109, U 5.5 -112

[sb-standard teams=”Philadelphia Flyers” books=”DraftKings”]

Bets We Like With a Flyers Win

Flyers Win and Over 5.5 Goals (+300, DraftKings Sportsbook)

If there’s been one consistent thing to believe in surrounding an inconsistent Flyers team, it’s the over hitting in a big way. The Flyers have seen the total goals go over 5.5 in ten of their last eleven games:

3/2/21 @ PIT: 5-2
3/4/21 @ PIT: 4-3
3/6/21 @ PIT: 4-3
3/7/21 v. WSH: 3-1
3/9/21 v. BUF: 5-4 (SO)
3/11/21 v. WSH: 5-3
3/13/21 v. WSH: 5-4
3/15/21 @ NYR: 5-4 (OT)
3/16/21 @ NYR: 9-0
3/18/21 @NYI: 4-3
3/20/21 @NYI: 6-1

To take it a step further, the final score has gone over 6.5 goals in each of Philadelphia’s last seven games. That means if you’re looking to get in on the action and +300 odds for a Flyers moneyline and over 5.5 goals parlay doesn’t have enough financial upside, you can get the Flyers moneyline and over 6.5 goals at +410 odds with DraftKings Sportsbook.

While the over 5.5 goals or even over 6.5 goals has been a sure thing as of late, the Flyers’ inconsistent play could be the thing to give bettors pause in a same-game parlay. Philadelphia’s 4-6-0 stretch in their last ten games has not only kept them three points out of the final playoff position in the East Division, but has also allowed the New York Rangers to get within three points of fifth place. While the Flyers have at least two games in hand over the Capitals, Islanders, and Penguins, the fourth place Boston Bruins have a game in hand on the Orange & Black.

The key in deciding whether or not to roll with the Flyers comes down to a bettor’s confidence in Brian Elliott. After a stellar start to the season as Carter Hart’s backup, the 35-year-old netminder has struggled in the month of March, allowing 4.40 goals per game on a .821 SV%. To Elliott’s credit, his numbers games played at the Wells Fargo Center have been decent: .907 SV% and 2.70 GAA. In what feels like a must-win for his team at home, head coach Alain Vigneault will hope to get a similar performance from Elliott as in the Flyers 4-3 OT win on January 31. In that game Elliott gave up three goals on 36 shots in 64:22 of ice time.

If you believe in Brian Elliott, this same-game parlay is worth taking a look at.

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Bets We Like With an Islanders Win

Money Puck gives the Islanders a 55.3% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, New York’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is a bit lower at 54%.

Islanders Win and Over 6.5 Goals (+330, DraftKings Sportsbook)

While the oddsmakers and projection model agree that the Islanders are the favorite in this game, New York has seen a roughly 8% drop in implied win probability compared to entering Saturday’s matchup.

As noted above, the Flyers have allowed plenty of goals of late, with the over 6.5 total goals market hitting in each of the home team’s last seven games. The Flyers have also allowed a division-worst 105 goals this season, despite playing the second-fewest games. As outlined above, this game will come down in large part to Brian Elliott the Flyers’ ability or lack thereof to limit the damage. Elliott has had plenty of time to rest since being chased after allowing the first five of nine goals to the Rangers on March 17.

The Islanders will enter this game with heavy wind in their sails after a 6-1 drubbing of the Flyers in their last matchup. A win tonight wouldn’t end Philadelphia’s season by any stretch, but it would put a dangerous dose of doubt in the minds of the team they toppled in seven games in last postseason.

If the over 6.5 portion of this same-game parlay gives you pause, consider hedging a bit with the Islanders to win and over 5.5 goals at +230 odds with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Both Teams to Score 2 or More Goals in Full Time (-165, BetMGM)

This goal-dependent bet comes down to whether or not bettors believe the Flyers and Islanders will find the net multiple times in this contest. Given the total goal trend surrounding the Flyers over the last few weeks, it stands to reason that the likelihood of both teams depositing the puck into the other’s net at least twice is high. Keep in mind that the Islanders’ 6-1 win over the Flyers on Saturday was the only time in four meetings that either team was held below two goals.

The Isles have put up at least two goals in 14 of their last 15 games. The Flyers have done so in 19 of their last 23 contests. It’s not a bet that will pay out a crazy multiplier, but it’s a worthwhile market.

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Over 5.5 Goals (-110, BetMGM)

Sometimes a trend emerges that makes the prospect of doubling your money so solid you can’t help but take advantage. As outlined earlier, betting over 5.5 goals in a Flyers game has paid dividends over the last few weeks. The total goals in Flyers games have gone over 5.5 goals in ten of their last eleven games and in three of four matchups with the Islanders this season. If you’re looking for a low-downside total goals prop independent of outcome, this is worth a strong look. If you’re a believer in the total going over 6.5 goals, BetMGM has those odds at +145.

Flyers vs. Islanders Prediction

Pick: Given the back-and-forth nature of this matchup and Sean Couturier’s uncertain status for the contest, it’s difficult to take a struggling Flyers team at home until they give reason to believe they’ve fixed the issues in their defensive zone. Though the over 6.5 goals total is in play, take the Islanders and Over 5.5 Goals.