On Monday night, the Philadelphia Flyers will be on the road taking on the Buffalo Sabres.

Let’s get into our Flyers-Sabres betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this March 29, 2021 matchup.

Flyers vs. Sabres Betting Pick (March 29, 2021)

The Philadelphia Flyers enter play in this one at 16-13-4, following a 2-1 victory against the New York Rangers. That win represented just their fifth in fifteen games in the month of March. Philadelphia was once again on the brink of dropping a disappointing result to the Rangers when former first round pick Sam Morin deposited the puck into the back of the net with just under 4:30 remaining in regulation, his first NHL point.

As bad as things have gone for the Flyers over the past few weeks, it pales in comparison to the Buffalo Sabres, who have lost each of their last 17 games, including three at the hands of the Orange & Black. In the past week, the Sabres have dropped a 5-3 result to the Rangers, 5-2 and 4-0 contests with the Pittsburgh Penguins, and most recently a 3-2 result against the Boston Bruins.

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Philadelphia’s postseason chances hinge in large. part on these next two games against the Sabres, especially when looking ahead to a brutal upcoming stretch. After two games against Buffalo, nine of the Flyers’ next ten games will be played against the Islanders, Bruins, Capitals, and Penguins. It’s truly do-or-die for the Orange & Black in this one. A loss in this contest would be a massive blow to their playoff aspirations.

 

Flyers vs. Sabres Odds

Here’s the line for the Flyers and Sabres at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:

  • Spread: Flyers -1.5 (+123), Sabres +1.5 (-148)
  • Moneyline: Flyers -195, Sabres +165
  • Over/Under: O 6 +100, U 6 -120

[sb-standard teams=”Philadelphia Flyers” books=”DraftKings”]

 

Bets We Like With a Flyers Win

Money Puck gives the Flyers a 56.5% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, New York’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is 55%.

Flyers Win and Over 5.5 Goals (+155, DraftKings Sportsbook)

If there’s been one consistency in a wildly inconsistent season for the team from the City of Brotherly Love, it’s been high-scoring contests. In fact, the total goals scored has gone over 5.5 in 12 of their last 15 games overall.

The issue at hand with taking over 6 total goals is that the under has hit in three of the five matchups between the teams this season:

  • 1/18/21 v. BUF: 6-1
  • 1/19/21 v. BUF: 3-0
  • 2/27/21 @ BUF: 3-0
  • 2/28/21 @ BUF: 3-0
  • 3/9/21 v. BUF: 5-4 (SO)

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It’s worth noting, however, that while Brian Elliott had success earlier this season, he’s had a bumpier road in the month of March. This month, Elliott’s GAA is 3.60, while his .845 SV% is far from reassuring. The flip side is just how dominant against the Sabres this season. After allowing two goals on 15 shots in the teams’ first meeting, Elliott rebounded with a 40-save shutout the next night, a 23-save shutout at the end of February, and allowed just one goal on 12 shots in one of the Flyers’ five victories this month.

Expect the Flyers to find the back of the net enough, while also committing enough defensive zone mistakes for over 5.5 goals to hit. If you want to up the total goals to over 6.5, you can get in on that with the Flyers to win on a same-game parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook with +225 odds.

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Sean Couturier to Record at Least One Assist (-110, BetMGM)

Reigning Selke Trophy winner Sean Couturier was on a tear earlier this season before being held off the board in three consecutive games against the Rangers and in two contests against the Islanders. He’s bounced back in a big way, recording five points in his last three games, including three goals and two assists.

Couturier has had plenty of success against the Sabres this season, putting up a goal and an assist in the February 27 meeting, another goal on the second half of the back-to-back, and dishing out two assists in the teams’ matchup earlier this month.

BetMGM has the more general Over 0.5 points market at -200 odds, and the Couturier to score a goal at +200 odds, but he’s been more of a facilitator than a goalscorer this season. There’s value in this market at -110 odds.

 

Taylor Hall to Record Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-115, BetMGM)

Former Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall has had an underwhelming year in his first season with the Buffalo Sabres after inking a 1-year, $8 million deal this past offseason with the likely bottom feeders of the division. He’s found the back of the net just twice this season, while dishing out 15 assists. That production has him at just over a 0.5-point-per-game player on the season, well below the expectations set by the fans, organization, and likely himself. There’re too much volatility in the assist/goal markets to recommend throwing down serious money, but the shots on goal market is a safer bet.

While it’s true that Hall put up four shots in the last contest against the Flyers and three in the meeting prior to that, Hall has disappeared in recent games, failing to crack the 2.5 shots on goal threshold in each of his last six games and eight of his last nine overall.

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Flyers vs. Sabres Prediction

Pick: The Flyers’ season hangs in the balance in these next two games against the woeful Buffalo Sabres. If Philadelphia is to have any shot at vying for a postseason berth, it has to start with a victory tonight. Brian Elliott will need to be on his game, as his .967 SV% and 0.92 GAA are his best marks against any team this season. Still, the Flyers are making plenty of mistakes in front of net, and it’s unlikely we’ll see a. shutout in this one. Take the Flyers to Win and Over 5.5 Goals. Also, consider the Sean Couturier to record an assist prop at solid -100 odds.

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