Sixers vs. Nuggets Betting Pick (March 30, 2021)

On Tuesday night, the Philadelphia 76ers are on the road taking on the Denver Nuggets. The Sixers enter play at 32-14, which is the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Nuggets find themselves in fifth place in the Western Conference at 28-18 this season.

Let’s get into our Sixers-Nuggets betting preview, including odds, boosts, and picks.

Sixers vs. Nuggets Betting Pick (March 30, 2021)

When the Sixers lost Joel Embiid to a bone bruise in his knee, Philadelphia was 26-12 with the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks challenging for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia has responded admirably, going 6-2 without the MVP candidate, including a 3-0 stretch to start their six-game road trip before falling to Kawhi Leonard’s Los Angeles Clippers 122-112 on Saturday night.

Click here to get crazy 100-1 March Madness odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Sixers were led by All-Star snub Tobias Harris on Saturday night, whose 29 points led all players and whose 6 assists were a team-high. Harris’ frontcourt counterpart Danny Green (17), Sixth man Shake Milton (16), and starting point guard Ben Simmons (15) were the only other Sixers to score double digit points. Philadelphia will need a bigger performance from sharpshooter Seth Curry and a more level-headed game from Dwight Howard to have a chance at victory in this one.

The Denver Nuggets enter play in this one having won their last two games against the New Orleans Pelicans and Atlanta Hawks by scores of 113-108 and 126-102, respectively. Denver is 6-2 over their last eight games, including a 4-1 stretch at home over that span. Nikola Jokic has been on an absolute tear this month, averaging 27.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game across 13 contests in March.

The biggest concern for the 76ers in this one, aside from the absence of Embiid, should be the balanced scoring attack of the Nuggets, who saw six players -including all five starters- score at least 12 points in their 24-point blowout of the Atlanta Hawks.

Will the Nuggets walk away with their fourteenth victory at home or will Philadelphia get back to their winning ways on the road?

Sixers vs. Nuggets Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Nuggets at DraftKings Sportsbook:

- Spread: Sixers +5, Nuggets -5
- Moneyline: Sixers +170, Nuggets -210
- Total: 220.5

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

Bets We Like With a Nuggets Win

FiveThirtyEight gives the Nuggets a 77% chance of winning with a -7.5 point line. The oddsmakers are a bit less bullish, with the Sixers’ implied win probability based on the moneyline at 65%.

Nuggets to Win and Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 Points (+175, FOX Bet)

FOX Bet has one of the best odds boosts going ahead of tonight’s contest between the Nuggets and Sixers. The oddsmakers and projection model both favor Denver to defend their home court in this game. While there’s potential variance and risk in betting the spread or total points line in this game between two talented teams, there’s strong reason to believe that big man Nikola Jokic could play a large role in a Nuggets victory.

In 13 games this month, Jokic has crossed the 24.5 point threshold nine times, including four of his last six games. The two outliers in that stretch came in games in which he played fewer than 30 minutes. In games where he’s played at least 30 minutes, he’s posted the following lines:

3/1/21 @ CHI: 39 points, 14 rebounds, 9 assists
3/2/21 @ MIL: 37 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists
3/4/21 @ IND: 20 points, 12 rebounds, 8 assists
3/12/21 @ MEM: 28 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists
3/13/21 v. DAL: 26 points, 9 rebounds, 11 assists
3/15/21 v. IND: 32 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists
3/19/21 v. CHI: 34 points, 15 rebounds, 9 assists
3/21/21 v. NOP: 29 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists
3/23/21 @ ORL: 28 points, 15 rebounds, 10 assists
3/26/21 @ NOP: 37 points, 6 rebounds, 9 assists

It’s worth noting that although he was held below 24.5 points in two of his last three games, he played under 30 minutes due to the blowout nature of the contests. Denver lost at Toronto on March 24 by 24 points, while they romped Atlanta by 24 points in their last game. Although we wouldn’t advise taking the Sixers in this one, the game should be a relatively close one requiring Jokic to play at least 30 minutes.

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Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers Win and Bens Simmons Over 1.5 Dunks (+550, FOX Bet)

To be clear, siding with the oddsmakers. and projection model is the way to go in this game, with the Nuggets as a healthy favorite in this game. However, for bettors who are so inclined to take the underdog 76ers at +170 odds, it could make sense to take a flier on this same-game parlay.

In the 2020-21 season, 92.4% of Ben Simmons’ field goal attempts have come from less than 10 feet from the rim. He’s attempted a field goal at a distance of less than 5 feet from the rim 296 times, including plenty of attempted finishes at the rim. With Joel Embiid out, Simmons has been handed the keys to run an uptempo transition game, while areas in the paint in halfcourt sets typically reserved for Philadelphia’s big man have been somewhat vacated, allowing Simmons to slash.

If you’re looking for a way to get back a large multiplier on your Sixers moneyline wager, this one is worth a look.

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Nikola Jokic Over 42.5 Combined Points, Rebounds, and Assits (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)

While the threshold on this bet might appear on the surface to be a difficult one to exceed, keep in mind that Jokic has played like a man possessed in March. If he were to achieve within the realm of his month’s averages of 27.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 8.6 assists (47.6 total) he’d clear the threshold with room to spare.

In his last ten games in which he’s played 30+ minutes, Jokic has averaged 31 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. If he posts a game remotely close to those averages, this one will hit comfortably, and given the likelihood he’ll need to play more than 30 minutes, it’s as close to a sure thing as far as player props go.

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a $1,000 risk-free bet. Click here to get the offer.

Sixers vs. Nuggets Prediction

Pick: The Philadelphia 76ers have performed admirably without their franchise center, but with Joel Embiid out of the lineup, Nikola Jokic should be free to put on his own MVP performance. Take the Nuggets to Win and Nikola Jokic to Score Over 24.5 Points. Also, get in on the Nikola Jokic market.

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