Flyers vs. Bruins Betting Pick (April 5, 2021)

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On Monday night, the Philadelphia Flyers will be on the road taking on the Boston Bruins in the sixth matchup between the teams this season.

Let’s get into our Flyers-Bruins betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this April 5, 2021 matchup.

Flyers vs. Bruins Betting Pick (April 5, 2021)

The Philadelphia Flyers enter play in tonight’s contest coming off a hard fought 3-2 shootout loss to the New York Islanders. There was a huge positive to take away from that contest in the form of Carter Hart. After struggling throughout the month of March and even a bit earlier, Hart was shut down for a week as he worked with goalie coach Kim Dillabaugh. That work paid dividends as Hart was on his game from the get-go and kept the Flyers in the game, including stopping each of the first three shooters in the shootout. While he didn’t get the result he deserved, Hart appeared and sounded much more like the player from the 2019-20 season.

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The shootout loss earned the Flyers a critical point, but it still dropped them to 17-14-5 on the season, four points behind this Boston Bruins team for fourth place in the East Division. Philadelphia will play Boston in each of the next two games and in three of their next four. If they’re to have any shot of getting back into the playoff hunt, they need wins. One-point results against a team that holds two games in hand simply will not get the job done.

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The Boston Bruins are coming off a wild week that began with a 1-0 loss at home to the Devils, followed by a 5-4 shootout win over the same New Jersey squad. They then took one on the chin in a 4-1 home loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins only to flip the script two nights later in a 7-5 victory. Boston is 5-4-1 in their last ten games, which could indicate a vulnerability the Orange & Black could look to take advantage of. The issue for Philadelphia is that they’re 0-3-2 on the season against the Bruins, and even though they’ve skated away with two total points, they’ve yet to solve Boston.

Can Philadelphia snatch a road victory over a Bruins team that’s won each of the first five matchups this season?

 

Flyers vs. Bruins Odds

Here’s the line for the Flyers and Bruins at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:

  • Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-177), Bruins -1.5 (+148)
  • Moneyline: Flyers +147, Bruins -175
  • Over/Under: O 5.5 -113, U 5.5 -108

 

Bets We Like With a Bruins Win

Money Puck gives the Bruins a 62.6% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, Boston’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is slightly lower at 61%.

Bruins Win and Over 5.5 Goals (+190, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The oddsmakers and projection model are in agreement regarding the outcome of tonight’s game. Staring down the first half of a home-and-home with the Flyers, Boston has the initial home ice advantage with tonight’s game taking place at TD Garden. Boston has won each of the five matchups they’ve played against the Flyers this season, including three at home. Those wins have included a 5-4 shootout win in the teams’ first meeting, a 6-1 regulation win two days later, and a 7-3 regulation victory on February 21.

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When it comes to taking the over in this one, there’s reason to believe the over 5.5 goals market will hit. Boston has won two of their last three home games overall with those wins coming by a total tally of 12-9, including a 5-4 shootout win over the Devils and a 7-5 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Given the Bruins’ success against Philadelphia this season, especially at home, combined with Boston’s high-scoring affairs of late, you can get better value than a Bruins moneyline bet alone by parlaying it with over 5.5 goals.

 

Bruins Win and David Pastrnak to Score a Goal (+170, FOX Bet)

We expect the Bruins to win for the reasons above, so the player prop in this same-game parlay is the portion to focus on. David Pastrnak is in the midst of an excellent season, averaging more than a point per game having racked up 30 points (16 G, 14A) in just 27 games played. Pastrnak has only played in three of the five meetings between the Bruins and Flyers this season, but he’s made his presence felt. In his first appearance against the Orange & Black, Pastrnak lit the lamp three times, while also recording an assist. He followed that up two days later with a one assist performance. In the February 21 meeting, he recorded his second hat trick against the Flyers in a 7-3 blowout at Lake Tahoe.

Although he found himself in a four-game goalless slump, he broke out in a big way on Saturday scoring two goals and registering an assist in a win over the Pittsburgh Penguins. Given his success against the Flyers and the likelihood of maintaining his goal-scoring momentum, getting in on this same-game parlay at +170 odds is a worthwhile bet.

 

Bets We Like With a Flyers Win

Flyers Win and Over 4.5 Goals (+225, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Philadelphia Flyers are in desperate need of a win against a team directly ahead of them in the standings, especially given the fact that Boston has two games in hand. We agree with the oddsmakers and projection model that the Bruins should skate away with two points and improve to 6-0-0 against the Flyers on the season. 

22-year-old netminder Carter Hart’s strong performance on Saturday night provided a much-needed shot of optimism for the player, his team, and the organization. The issue for Hart and the Flyers is the question of whether or not he’ll get the call in this one. He’s allowed 5.32 goals per game this season against Boston on a .843 SV% with a record of 0-2-2. If Hart is able to bounce back and limit the damage, the potential for a five-goal outcome needs to be put in play. 

In Philadelphia’s last 20 games, the total goals scored has eclipsed 4.5 fifteen times. In five prior meetings between the teams this season, the over 4.5 goals market has hit four times.

 

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

David Pastrnak to Score a Goal (-105, BetMGM)

If you’re a believer in the scoring trends of David Pastrnak against the Flyers -two hat-tricks in three games against Philadephia this season- and/or the fact that he had a two-goal performance on Saturday, but are hesitant to get in on a same-game parlay with the outcome portion, this could be for you. The Bruins should win their sixth game against the Flyers in six attempts, but -105 odds for Pastrnak to score independent of outcome are solid odds.

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Flyers vs. Bruins Prediction

Pick: Philadelphia will need to prove that Saturday night’s goaltending performance is sustainable. Given that Boston has won each of the three games between these teams at TD Garden this season and five of five overall against the Orange & Black, take the Bruins to Win and David Pastrnak to Score a Goal.

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