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Flyers vs. Islanders Betting Pick (April 3, 2021)

By Russ Joy

Published: Apr 3rd, 2021 · 12:37 PM EDT

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On Saturday night, the Philadelphia Flyers will be on the road taking on the New York Islanders in the sixth matchup between the teams this season.

Let’s get into our Flyers-Islanders betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this April 3, 2021 matchup.

Flyers vs. Islanders Betting Pick (April, 2021)

The Philadelphia Flyers enter play in tonight’s contest coming off a wildly disappointing 6-1 defeat at the hands of the Buffalo Sabres.

Not only was it disappointing in the sense that it snapped a two-game winning streak, but more so in that it represented the Sabres’ first win after losing 18 consecutive games. Philadelphia had seemingly begun to turn things around after securing a 2-1 victory over the Rangers and a come-from-behind overtime win against the Sabres leading into Wednesday night’s game, but the air was fully released from that balloon.

The Flyers are 17-14-4 on the season, three points behind the Boston Bruins for fourth place in the East Division. However, that’s a bit deceiving as the Bruins have two games in hand over Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Flyers are nine points behind the Islanders, who find themselves in second place in this stacked division at 23-10-4.

The only positive for Philadelphia in that reality is that they hold two games in hand on each of the top three seeds in the division, but given their woeful play in the month of March, that shred of optimism is only worth so much. They’ll have to hope that the month of April smiles upon them, unlike the month of March, which represented an abject failure on a number of levels as the Orange & Black had hoped to establish themselves as Cup contenders.

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The New York Islanders come into this game with the second-most wins in the conference and the second-fewest goals allowed in the East Division this season. Since their last meeting with the Flyers on March 22, the Isles have gone 2-2-0 in their last four games, including an 8-4 victory over the Washington Capitals on Thursday. New York has won the last two games between these teams after dropping each of the first three contests earlier this season.

Can Philadelphia snatch a road victory over an Islanders team that’s had their number as of late?

Flyers vs. Islanders Odds

Here’s the line for the Flyers and Islanders at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:

• Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-175), Islanders -1.5 (+143)
• Moneyline: Flyers +155, Islanders -180
• Over/Under: O 5.5 -105, U 5.5 -115

[sb-standard teams=”Philadelphia Flyers” books=”DraftKings”] [metabet_core_odds_compare query=”flyers” size=”300×250″ site_id=”crossingbroad”]

 

Bets We Like With an Islanders Win

Money Puck gives the Islanders a 66.8% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, New York’s implied win probability based on the moneyline also a tad lower at 62%.

Islanders Win and Over 5.5 Goals (+190, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Islanders entered this season in the proverbial captain’s chair, having dispatched of the Flyers in Game 7 of a second round series last postseason. However, Philadelphia exacted their revenge early this season, taking down the Isles in three straight games until New York flipped the script, winning the final two games of a three-game miniseries played across five nights. The Islanders dominated play in a 6-1 win at home on March 20 and. followed it up two nights later with a 2-1 victory in overtime. Given New York’s strong and exponentially more consistent play this season, it stands to reason they’ll level the season series with a victory tonight.

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When it comes to taking the over in this one, there’s a positive trend going in favor of the over 5.5 goals market. The total goals scored in Philadelphia’s last 17 games has gone over 5.5 a staggering 14 times, including Wednesday night’s 6-1 loss to the Sabres. New York hasn’t been to shabby, seeing the over 5.5 goals market hit in five of their last seven games, including their 8-4 triumph over the Capitals on Thursday.

Bets We Like With a Flyers Win

Flyers Win and Over 5.5 Goals (+400, DraftKings Sportsbook)

To be clear, we agree with the oddsmakers and projection model, expecting the Islanders to walk away with a victory. However, there’s reason to believe Philadelphia could compete in this game, one which holds great importance to a Flyers team in desperate need of a strong start to the month of April.

The Flyers are about to enter a stretch of their season that will either bring them back into postseason contention or will effectively kill off any chance they might have otherwise clung to.

Philadelphia will play the Islanders three times in their next ten games, as well as the Bruins three times, the Capitals twice, as well as the Penguins and bottom-feeding Sabres one game apiece. If the Flyers can regain the confidence they held in winning the first three meetings between these teams this season, while getting better play out of 22-year-old netminder Carter Hart, who’s been working with goalie coach Kim Dillabaugh all week, it’s conceivable they could be victorious.

As for taking the over, the rationale above holds. At the same time, it’s also worth noting that the total goals scored between the teams has gone over 5.5 goals in three of the previous five meetings this season, including two of their last three.

 

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Over 6.5 Total Goals (+160, FOX Bet)

As outlined above, the total goals scored between these teams has gone over over 5.5 goals in three of the five games played between the teams this season. However, those three games actually cleared the 6.5 goal threshold. It’s also notable that the total goals scored has gone over 6.5 goals in 15 of Philadelphia’s last 18 games, including in each of their last two contests. If you’re looking for a solid goal-dependent prop independent of outcome, there’s reason to believe this one could hit.

Oliver Wahlstrom to Score a Goal (+310, FanDuel Sportsbook)

One season ago, young winger Oliver Wahlstrom played nine regular season games, averaging just over 10 minutes played per game. This season the 20-year-old has seen a slight uptick in his time on ice of about two extra minutes per game. He’s found the back of the net nine times, while dishing out seven assists in 30 games this season thus far for 16 points. After being kept off the scoresheet in the Islanders’ first game against the Flyers, Wahlstrom did not play in the meeting between the teams. He made his presence felt in the three-game miniseries the teams put together in March, finding the back of the net in the first and third game, as well as racking up two assists in the second game.

Wahlstrom lit the lamp in five of seven games from March 13-25, including twice against the Orange & Black. If you’re looking for a player prop with high upside, this one could be for you.

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Flyers vs. Islanders Prediction

Pick: The Flyers’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. If they are to have any hope of a postseason berth, they’ll need to start a brutal 10-game stretch with a win. However, the Islanders are the more consistent team and have won the last two contests between these teams. Take the Islanders to Win and Over 5.5 Goals.