On Sunday evening, the Philadelphia Flyers will play host to the New York Islanders. This represents the eighth and final meeting overall between the teams this season as well as the fourth and final meeting at the Wells Fargo Center.
Let’s get into our Flyers-Islanders betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this April 18, 2021 matchup.
Flyers vs. Islanders Betting Pick (April 18, 2021)
The Philadelphia Flyers and New York Islanders will take to the ice at the Wells Fargo Center for the fourth and final time this season in what marks the teams’ eighth and final meeting on the season.
It’s been a tale of two seasons in a sense in the meetings between the teams this season. Philadelphia won each of the first three matchups, first by way of 3-2 and 4-3 overtime results in Philadelphia, followed by a 4-3 regulation win at Nassau Coliseum. After dropping a postseason series in Game 7 against Barry Trotz’s squad, it appeared that the Flyers had overcome their proverbial kryptonite. That all changed in the next four meetings between the teams. The Islanders blew out Philadelphia 6-1 at home and pulled out a 2-1 road win in overtime back in Philadelphia two days later. When the teams met on April 3, New York won a 3-2 shootout after the Flyers rallied in the third period to take the game beyond regulation. Five nights later, the Islanders put together a comeback effort of their own on the island and won another 3-2 result via the shootout.
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After hoping the month of March was the worst manifestation of their team’s weaknesses coalescing with the worst luck in the history of hockey, Philadelphia has been faced with the reality that they just aren’t as good as pundits believed prior to the season. They’ve stumbled to a 3-5-2 record over their last ten games, as opposed to New York’s slightly better 5-5-0 record over that same stretch.
There’s one reason to think Philadelphia will have a chance in this one. Sunday night represents “Hockey Fights Cancer Night” and the Flyers are expected to have some extra juices flowing in this one as they’ll honor cancer survivors including their teammate Oskar Lindblom, whose public battle with and victory over Ewing Sarcoma has been an inspiration to millions.
Flyers vs. Islanders Odds
Here’s the line for the Flyers and Islanders at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:
- Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-205), Islanders -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Flyers +132, Islanders -155
- Over/Under: O 5.5 -114, U 5.5 -107
Bets We Like With a Islanders Win
Money Puck gives the Islanders a 54.4% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, New York’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is slightly higher at 58%.
Islanders Win and Over 5.5 Goals (+200, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The oddsmakers and projection model agree that the New York should win their fifth consecutive game against the Philadelphia Flyers. Philadelphia’s most reliable constant this season has been their inconsistency, going from a team that beats the Bruins 3-2, to one that loses 5-2 to the bottom-dwelling Sabres and 6-1 to the Capitals, only to win 2-1 on the road over Pittsburgh, to get blown out at home 6-3 to the Caps. While we agree that the Islanders should win this game, Philadelphia could just as easily pull out a big win on Hockey Fights Cancer Night and provide a glimmer of hope for the future.
The Islanders have dropped two consecutive games, both on the road at the hands of the Boston Bruins, and haven’t lost three consecutive games since January 31. They’re in better form overall and they’re only four points out of first place with a game in hand over the first place Capitals.
The Flyers have seen the total goals scored cross the 5.5 goals threshold in three of their last four games, including in three of their last four home games. Although the Islanders have seen the total goals scored go under 5.5 in each of. their last seven games, they’ve seen the total go over 4.5 goals in five of those contests. The Flyers’ inability to limit the damage consistently over the past two months, however, leads us to believe the value add of over 5.5 goals and an Islanders moneyline at +200 odds is greater than taking the Islanders and over 4.5 goals at just +112 odds.
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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome
Flyers (+1.5) and Over 4.5 Goals (-106, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Although we agree with the oddmakers and projection model that New York should win tonight’s contest, which would mark their fifth-consecutive win over the Flyers, there are reasons to believe that Philadelphia should be able to keep this game to within one goal with a chance to actually win this game. There’s an element in tonight’s contest that cannot be measured or quantified and that’s the raw emotion that should present itself as the Flyers and their faithful are expected to rally around Oskar Lindblom. It would be an unbelievable disappointment on a number of levels to see Philadelphia come out and put out an underwhelming effort in yet another home game, especially on Hockey Fights Cancer Night.
As for the over 4.5 goals portion of this bet, we’ve outlined the recent trends above and it’s also worth noting that in seven meetings between the teams this season, the over 4.5 goals market has hit six times. This same-game parlay is one that has a solid chance to hit with respectable odds.
Each Team to Score 1+ Goal in the First Period (+240, BetMGM)
The Philadelphia Flyers have scored a fair share of first period goals over the past two weeks. They’ve scored at least one goal in five of their last six games, including all three games played at Wells Fargo Center.
The New York Islanders have tallied at least one first period goal in four of their last eight games, but haven’t done so in either of their road games in that stretch. However, accounting for the recent trends seen in Philadelphia games, as well as the fact that both teams scored a first period goal in their most recent meeting, it stands to reason that taking a flier at +240 odds could be worth it.
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Flyers vs. Islanders Prediction
Pick: The great unknown in this game is the intangible nature of accounting for emotion. While the Islanders should win this game in a game that crosses the 5.5 goal line, we’d encourage taking the result out of this one and hedging a bit. Take the Flyers (+1.5) and Over 4.5 Goals.